BlogWells Fargo Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

What a miserable week for the folks putting on and playing in the Zurich Classic.  They were just in the wrong place at the wrong time when over ten inches of rain fell over the week, causing numerous delays and the tournament having to be reduce to 54 holes.  The one good thing that happened was getting a good morning of golf on Monday so the tournament could at least be official.  It’s a shame for the folks that run the Zurich, they put a year of effort only to have it ruined by the weather.

The good news is weather is going to be great in Charlotte as this will be the last time Quail Hollow is used in this event for a year.  Next year it will hold the PGA Championship as the tournament moves for 2017 to Eagle Point Golf Club in Wilmington, North Carolina.  Then it’s back to Quail Hollow in 2018.

Many thought that Tiger Woods could make an appearance this week, that’s not going to happen.  Seems that Tiger really wants to play again, frankly I would rather seem him take an extend period off but it looks like Tiger will play in the U.S. Open, the question will be if he plays next week at the Players or starts in next month at the Memorial.  I would say that the Memorial looks like the best bet, don’t think Tiger wants to play on a tough course like TPC Sawgrass.

Despite Tiger not playing, Jim Furyk is returning after not playing since September.  He hurt his left wrist sometime in August  He wasn’t able to play at the BMW and the Presidents Cup and after taking three months off realized he needed surgery.  He had that at the end of January and has been rehabbing.  So we will see if the wrist is better and he can pick up were he left off in August.

Kind of disappointing not seeing Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Bubba Watson playing this week, but for Spieth he will play the two events in Dallas, while Day will probably play at the Nelson. As for Watson have no idea what his deal is.

Things you need to know about the WellS Fargo:

This is the 14th year of the Wells Fargo Championship, which is played at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina.  The course was the site of the Kemper Open from 1969 through 1979 before it was moved to Washington D.C.  With the advent of Wachovia coming into the picture and Quail Hollow being used, the tournament gained instant recognition and has been one of the most popular events on tour, not only in player attendance but with spectators as well. For the tenth year in a row the event is sold out.

In 2008 Wachovia was bought out by Wells Fargo and with the problems associated with banks sponsoring tournaments Wells Fargo decided to take the Wachovia name off the tournament.  Wells Fargo continued to sponsor the tournament after its purchase of Wachovia, but dropped it’s name and decided to be pretty hands off and more of a background player. In 2011 they got more involved and put there name back into the event.  The owners of Quail Hollow seemed more interested in having a major, getting the 2017 PGA Championship.  But they are now just as excited about this event.

Course information:

Quail Hollow Golf Club

• Charlotte, N.C.
• 7,562 yards     Par 36-36–72
• Quail Hollow features a course rating of 75.0 and a slope rating from the back tees of 140. The tees, fairway, and rough are 419 bermudaGrass with Perennial Ryegrass.  The greens were changed after last years event and are Mini Verde Ultrdwarf.
• The main reason that the players love this event is because of the course. Located in Charlotte, North Carolina it’s considered one of the most exclusive clubs in America and in the players’ eyes one of the best challenges. Many consider it a “U.S. Open-type” venue as it was the 20th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2015 with a 71.92 average.  It was the 13th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2014 with a 72.546 average which is a half a shot over par.  In 2013 it was the 10th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.043 average which is 1.043 strokes over par. Over the years, players loved the course so much that the word filtered down and help get more marquee players to come, but in the last couple of years that trend has changed as less marquee names are showing up.
• The property was originally a dairy farm owned by former North Carolina Governor Cameron Morrison. In the late 1950s, a group of affluent men decided to create a private club patterned after the Peachtree Golf Club in Atlanta. George Cobb was recruited to design the course and it opened in June, 1961. In order to attract members, one of the founding members enlisted the help of a close friend, Arnold Palmer. Palmer liked the course so much, he was instrumental in bringing the Kemper Open to Quail Hollow. The event was played there from 1969-79, then abruptly moved to Washington, D.C. in 1980.
• Palmer didn’t forget Quail Hollow. When he began playing the Champions Tour in 1980, he worked to bring the Paine Webber Invitational to Quail Hollow, where it was played between 1983-88.  Palmer tinkered with the course in the late ’80s, but a major renovation was done by Tom Fazio in 1997.
• The average green size is 6,500, which is about average and the course is dotted with 62 bunkers.  Water comes into play on six holes (7, 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18).  Along with the changing of the greens course architect Tom Fazio made some changes three years ago to the 8th hole making it play straight and now is potentially a drive-able par 4.  He also made a major change to 16, adding 18 yards to the hole and bringing the lake more into play, making it a lot tougher.  He also changed 17, moving the tee to the right and adding 20 yards to the hole.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at the Quail Hollow:

This is based on the most important stats for Quail Hollow, based on data from last years Wells Fargo, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four catagories.
The scoring average of the field at Quail Hollow in 2015 was 71.92, so with par being 72 that means the average score was just a bit under par, making Quail Hollow the 20th hardest course to score on in 2015. The course is most of the time hard, so hard that it will be the venue of next year’s PGA Championship so this will be the last Wells Fargo on it for two years. You look at the list of winners, they are some of golf’s best ball strikers like Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Vijay Singh and Lucas Glover. Yes some weird winners like Derek Ernst and Joey Sindelar are on the list, but most of the time your going to get a quality winner, someone that plays well in major championships and WGC events. So in looking at our four categories, they are all related to ball striking, except for par 3 scoring.
First is driving accuracy, the field hit a total of 49.06% of the fairways and was the third hardest fairway to hit on the PGA Tour. The course is also long, so players have to hit drivers off the tee and you don’t see many players lay back with a 3 wood or long iron. Our second category is proximity to hole, this is the cousin to greens in regulation which Quail Hollow is 12th, but it’s important to see how close a player can get to the hole and at Quail Hollow it’s 40 feet and ranks 6th on tour in 2015. Our three category is strokes gained tee to green, again this gives an overall look at a player from the tee to the green, last year Quail Hollow was 6th. Last we have par 3 scoring and Quail Hollow was the 6th hardest in difficulty, as even winner Rory McIlroy was 3 over on the short holes for the week. This is the norm for the champions as only two of the 13 champions have been under par on the par 3s.

In looking at Rory McIlroy the winner last year he was the longest driver, on all the holes he averaged 311.5 yards. Now normally the longest driver drops down in accuracy but McIlroy was T-19th in this stat which is good. In proximity to hole McIlroy was 3rd getting his shots 33 feet away. As for strokes gained tee-to-green as McIlroy was 1st. So you can see why Rory won, he was awesome from tee to green and he was 5th in scrambling and T-13th in putts per round. To cap off our list, McIlroy stumbled in one category and that was par 3s, playing them in 3 over
So the key in picking a winner is someone that hits the ball great.
So here are our top-four categories:

*Driving Accuracy: Important because the fairways are close to U.S. Open length and if you drive it into the rough, it’s tough.

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, last year Quail Hollow ranked 12th, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Quail Hollow ranked 6th as the players averaged getting it 40 feet.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: Course may have only been 25th hardest on tour, but you need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lot’s of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Par 3 scoring: Four really hard par 3s, who plays par 3s the best

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2016:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Wells Fargo Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

• Since the course will play at more than 7,500 yards, the “experts” will say bombers hold an advantage. But as you will see length is not the only strength you need to play well at Quail Hollow. Three of the 12 winners (Jim Furyk, David Toms and Joey Sindelar) do not have the reputation as long hitters even though the 2005 winner Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Anthony Kim, Sean O’Hair, Rory McIlroy, Derek Ernst and J.B. Holmes do hit it long.  So it’s a 50/50 proposition on if longer hitters have an advantage.
• This is one of those courses that will get you ready for a U.S. Open.  As a matter of fact it would be a perfect Open venue because of its length, tight fairways with three-inch plus rough, tree line and fast undulating greens.  It always ranks as one of the toughest courses on tour.
• Not to contradict myself but accuracy off the tee has not been a factor if you look at the statistics of the 13 winners.  Last year Rory McIlroy ranked T-19th while in 2014 J.B. Holmes finished T53rd.  In 2013 Derek Ernst finished T13th in accuracy which is fourth best of all the champions in accuracy just above 2003 winner David Toms will was T2nd, 2012 winner Rickie Fowler who was T2nd followed by 2006 winner Jim Furyk who was 3rd.  Looking at this myth of driving accuracy on a course like Quail Hollow, things have changed.  Even though in past years fairways were very narrow and earned the reputation as narrowest on tour, of the 20 players that finished in the top-five in the tournament’s first three years, 15 of them finished in the top-20 of the driving accuracy category.  Things changed drastically in 2006 when only five players out of the top 21 finished in the top-ten of the driving distance category.  In 2007 it was even worse as only two of the top-20 finished high in fairway accuracy.  Things did improve in 2008 as five of the top-fifteen were in the top-ten in driving accuracy but with all of the rain the fairways were soft and help cause that.  In 2009 and 2010 only one player in the top-ten was in the top-ten in driving accuracy so it looked like just because you see tight fairways doesn’t mean you have to hit it straight. But the trend changed.  In 2011 and 2012 four of the top-ten were in the top-ten in driving accuracy, while in 2013 five of the top-15 were in the top-ten so maybe accuracy is becoming more important off the tee. In 2014 only one top-ten finisher was in the top-ten in accuracy, while in 2015 only two of the top-12 where in the top-ten of accuracy so don’t look for a straight winner.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium, just like in a U.S. Open hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week, in the first six years Anthony Kim was the only player out of the top-11 in this stat, he finished T17th in greens hit in 2008.  In 2009 Sean O’Hair was T3rd while in 2010 Rory McIlroy was T4th.  In 2011 Lucas Glover was T27th, Rickie Fowler was T5th in 2012 while Derek Ernst was T3rd in 2013, J.B. Holmes was T29th in 2014 while last year Rory McIlroy was T-2nd in greens hit.
• So is there any rhyme or reason to players?  Frankly being a shot maker doesn’t give you an edge, but there is one stat that you can gauge a winner.  Not only are the fairways at Quail Hollow hard to hit (3rd hardest on tour last year, no higher than 8th last 12 years) but it’s been hard getting it close to the hole on shots into the green.  Last year the proximity to the hole was 40 feet,  making it the 6th hardest course on tour in getting it close.  This stat is the norm for Quail Hollow, it was 2nd in 2014 and 2013, 3rd in 2012 and 1st in 2011 & ’10. So looking for a good choice look for those that lead the strokes gained from tee to green category.
• Good putters should have a field day this week. Green speeds were lowered in 2008 and Anthony Kim was 2nd in total putts.  But it popped up in 2009 as Sean O’Hair was T47th, the worst of any champion.  In 2010 McIlroy was T38th in this category while in 2011 Glover was 3rd.  In 2012 Fowler was T40th while in 2013 Derek Ernst was T34th. J.B. Holmes was T4th in total putts in 2014 while last year Rory McIlroy was T-13th in putts.
• The course is demanding but as it goes into year 14 the pros are starting to learn it better and shoot lower scores.  In the first three years the winning score has come down a stroke a year except for in 2006 when it stayed the same at 276. In 2007 Tiger Woods broke the tournament record shooting 275, while Anthony Kim brought things even lower with his 272 total.  The next year McIlroy shot 273 the same score as Lucas Glover did in 2011.  But with the advent of the 2017 PGA being played on the course it’s had some changes as Rickie Fowler shot 274 in 2012 with Derek Ernst jumping up to 280 in 2013.  Holmes was back at 274 in 2014 but last year Rory McIlroy had the lowest total at 267..
• One of the keys to mastering Quail Hollow is playing well on the final four holes. Showing the difficultly of this stretch dubbed the “The Green Mile”, holes 16, 17 and 18 have been in the top-70 of the PGA Tour’s hardest holes.  Throw in the par 5, 15th it’s a challenging stretch in which the last five champions have excelled on.  How good, last year Rory McIlroy played the stretch in 1 over while J.B. Holmes played the stretch in 3 under, in 2013 Derek Ernst was four under, in 2012 Rickie Fowler was 3 under, in 2011 Lucas Glover was 1 under and in 2010 Rory McIlroy was 3 under..
• Now I don’t want to jinx the tournament, but weather in North Carolina should be picture-perfect for all four days of the championship, despite all of the bad weather in the mid-west and eastern seaboard.