Key Fantasy Stats Bethpage

The Barclays

August 25th – 28th, 2016

Bethpage State Park (Black)

Farmingdale, N.Y.

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,468

Purse: $8.5 million

with $1,530,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jason Day

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most vital stats from Bethpage, based on data from the 2012 Barclays when the course was last used on the PGA Tour and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016.

Bethpage is an A.W. Tillinghast on record even though many feel it is doubtful he had anything to do with the actual building of it. Yes, he did the designs and drawings. However, some historians say that Tillinghast never spent a day at Bethpage after the drawings were completed, and the workers took them and did the best they could to follow his plans.
It doesn’t matter, the course is a gem and probably the finest municipal golf course in America. Now before people jump down my throat saying, hey places like Pebble Beach, Pinehurst and Bandon Dunes are “municipal” courses because they are opened to the public, they aren’t. Municipal are courses run by a local or state government, in the case of Bethpage it’s run by the state of New York. Yes, people could say that Torrey Pines is a better course, it’s run by the city of San Diego. It’s a very scenic course and has held a U.S. Open, but for regular challenges, Bethpage is the best.
Despite being a par 70 for the U.S. Open, for the Barclays, the course will play to a par 71 as the 7th hole will be a par 5 which makes the course to par easier. It also plays an important because it means more bombers will be able to take the par 5s apart and make low scores on them.
The trick to the course is getting it in the fairway and hitting lots of greens. Since the course is “public” the greens are fairly flat and don’t have much roll in them, thus giving a poor putter a chance. You can see this in action as one of the worst all-time putters on the PGA Tour is Lucas Glover who won the U.S. Open at Bethpage in 2009. Another example is the 2012 winner Nick Watney, who is having lots of problems finishing 202 in the FedEx Cup standings and won’t be a part of it this year. He is considered a below par putter, averaging right around 130th in putting since 2012. So you can see, a poor putter can do well on this course.
Still, you have to get to the greens, and the course is filled with hazards. One is not fairway bunkers, sand in the fairway only appears on 4 holes, #6, 10, 15 and 16. The course is tightly tree-lined with rough, but since the summer has been so hot the rough won’t be full and lush as officials would have wanted it. So the course will appeal to bombers, but there are some hazards for them. Holes 6, 9, 12, 13, 14 and 18 have bend and fairways that run out so long hitters need to throttle back with possible long irons on the holes to make sure they are position for shots into the green. So there are some hazards and dangers to driving at Bethpage. Now there are bunkers around the greens, 32 of them, but they aren’t wicket like the greenside bunkers at Oakmont or even Baltusrol. But with many of the greens risen, missing them means tough pitches to the hole, this will be the challenge for the players this week. Despite this don’t think the course is a pushover, it’s so unique that the PGA of America will hold the 2019 PGA Championship and the 2014 Ryder Cup on the course. Both the PGA and the USGA set up courses harder than the PGA Tour, so that is part of the secret. Tiger had a winning score of 3 under at the 2002 U.S. Open; Lucas Glover was 4 under in 1999 while Nick Watney shot 10 under at the 2012 Barclays when the field average was 71.72 (three-quarters of a shot over par). I can see the winning score going as low as 14 under this year, many because of the hot weather before the event. Also playing in the equation will be the fact that the New York area, which has been stuck in high temperatures with high humidity will see that break this week with the summer’s best weather for the region.

So will every phase of the game be examined at Bethpage? Probably not for those playing well, I can see a lot of birdies and around a dozen players breaking par for the 72 holes.
So in looking at our four categories, our first is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. This is going to be the most important item and frankly, go to the top and sort through it, I would say that someone in the top-30 will win this week. Now in 2012 they didn’t have Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, so we have to look at several stats. It ranked T-28th in driving distance for the year on the PGA Tour, it was 27th in driving accuracy and 18th in Greens hit. For the U.S. Open in 2009, it ranked 6th in driving distance, 24th in driving accuracy and 5th in greens hit. Again that greens hit becomes important, in 2012 the winner Nick Watney was T-2nd, in 2009 Lucas Glover was 4th and in 2002 Tiger Woods was 1st.
Our second stat is scrambling, lot’s of players will miss greens at Bethpage and will have to get it up and down. In the 2009 Barclays, the course ranked 13th in scrambling while Watney was T39th, Glover in 2009 was 19th and Tiger was 2nd in 2002.
Our third stat is putting inside of 10 feet, yes this will be substantial because the greens will be flat with tiny undulation. One problem for the players, the greens are poa aunna and will be bumpy in the afternoon. Still, the winner will come close to making 100% of his putts from 10 feet and in.
Out fourth category is par 5 average. I see this as being a critical stat with three par 5s this week. Look for the winner to be in the 10 under range for the week.

This is the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, so those toward the bottom need to play well or sit out a month. But at Bethpage, the course will be for the taking of many of the players, and I can see some excellent scoring.  For those seeing 121 players below and wondering which one is missing, it’s Henrik Stenson who was 1 rounds short of getting “official” stats.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: A combination of driving distance, accuracy and greens hit this will tell you who plays the best from tee to green which will be important this week.

*Scrambling: The percent of time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better.

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Par 5 Average: How players do on par 5s, who plays them the best.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2016:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

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