BlogDeutsche Bank Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So it’s the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and only one exempt player is not participating, Masters champion Danny Willett.  It makes sense him not playing, he was 86th in the FedEx Cup so the odds on him going fair was slim.  On top of that he is the defending champion at the Omega European Masters in Switzerland so he decides to play there instead of here.  A couple of things about the playoffs that are a bit of a turnoff, last week Patrick Reed won at the Barclays.  With the win it guarantees Reed a top-five points ranking heading into the Tour Championship, meaning that he controls his own destiny and will win the FedEx Cup with a victory at East Lake.  So if Reed had chosen not to play this week and at the BMW, he would of still been able to win the FedEx Cup at the Tour Championship.  These playoffs are getting more to do with the Tour Championship than anything else, to win the playoffs you just about have to win at East Lake which I don’t understand.

One last item:

On Monday Ryder Cup captain Davis Love III found out who his top-8 players would be.  One thing that didn’t happen, because of the poor back nine for Rickie Fowler he will now need a captains picks.  The big change, Love has four captains picks and doesn’t have to make three of them until the end of the BMW.  The fourth player won’t be announced until the Tour Championship ends Sept. 25 and players head for Hazeltine for the Ryder Cup the following week.  So Love will have the hottest players and that should be an advantage for him.  He also said he has hired a company to provide statistics on various players — how they would fare at a big course like Hazeltine, how they would partner and how they would fare depending on the team they are playing.

I would only say this about the whole Ryder Cup system, if the Americans lose again, they have lost the last three matches in a row I would say that lot’s of interest will decrease with this.  American’s like winners and frankly our Ryder Cup team are not winners.  Here is a frighting bit of information to show how bad it’s gotten.  My daughter will be 23 years old at the end of October.  In her lifetime, America has won the Ryder Cup just twice, in 1999 and 2008 the same number of wins the Great Britain and Ireland team won in the first 28 years of the Ryder Cup.

Tournament information:

This is the 14th annual Deutsche Bank Championship. Initially created with the help of IMG, the Tiger Woods Foundation, and the PGA Tour, the Deutsche Bank Championship’s main goal was to raise money for the Tiger Woods Foundation.

As the tournament is held over Labor Day weekend, it has the distinction along with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions to be the only events on the PGA Tour to conclude on a Monday.

Though the event lacks history, its short stint on the PGA Tour has produced some monumental happenings. Most notably: the rivalry between Vijay Singh and Tiger Woods. In 2004, Tiger and Vijay battled down to the final hole. Ultimately, Singh’s 69 was enough to give him the tournament title and the World’s Number One ranking, dethroning Woods after five years of dominance.

In 2006, the rivalry was renewed, and this time, Woods was not to be denied. Singh shot a course record 61 in the third round going into the final round with a three-shot lead over Woods.  Despite shooting a 68, he was still a loser as Woods shot 63 to overcome a three-shot deficit and win the title.

The 2007 event is also memorable with Phil Mickelson holding off the challenge of Tiger Woods, Arron Oberholser and Brett Wetterich.

In 2008 Vijay Singh shot a final round 63 and cruised to a five-shot victory which paved the way for him to win the FedEx Cup.

Since the start of the FedEx Cup, it’s been the second playoff event.  Of the four, this and the Tour Championship are the only events played each year on the same course.  Over the years, it’s grown a nice following as players love the course, the location and the week.

Course information:

The TPC of Boston was opened in June of 2002, it was formerly used for charcoal production for the jewelry, brick and iron industries as well as lumber for ship construction.  Arnold Palmer designed the course, it is your typical TPC layout, very long and pretty generous off the tee.  There are several doglegs that can be carried by long hitters so again advantage to those that hit it long.  The greens are large, and several have multiple tiers making putting more challenging.  But over the years the course has changed dramatically.

As players matriculate back to Boston each year for the Deutsche Bank Championship, they were met with changes made by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon.  In 2009 changes to the green area and mounding around the 2nd hole.  In 2008 players saw changes to the 4th, 7th and 16th holes.  The changes weren’t as big, mostly cosmetic like mounds being added to the right side of nine.  Also, changes were made to the chipping areas around No. 1 and No. 10 greens. Bunkers also were altered in shape at the fourth and 11th holes. At the latter, a 230-yard par-3, and island of turf was installed in the middle of the large front-right bunker.

The changes made for the 2007 event was well received by the players, most of them liked making the 4th hole a possible drivable par 4. It’s a step in the right direction because in previous years they have been very luke warm on the Arnold Palmer design course.

There are no real major changes to the course for this year.  The course has pretty much been the same for a couple of years now expect they did add 50 years to the 4th hole.

Still the course is for the taking, last year the course played to a 70.96 average and was the 19th toughest of the 52 courses used.  So you can see, you have to go low to survive this week.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at the TPC Boston:

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Boston, based on data from the 2015 Barclays when the course was last used on the PGA Tour and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016.

TPC Boston is a Arnold Palmer design that has be reworked by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon. The course has a touch of links style as it plays firm and fast, but it’s still a course for long hitters as in it’s 13 year history players like Adam Scott, Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Charley Hoffman, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler. All of these players hit it long. On the other end of the spectrum, short hitters like Olin Browne, Webb Simpson and Steve Stricker have won, many because of their awesome around the green game. Still the focus should be on long hitters and ball strikers having a big advantage. Of the 13 champions, nine of them ranked in the top-ten in greens hit, so if a long hitter is on his game he does have a big advantage. Another thing you won’t see a poor putter win here, the greens are 6,00 square feet and have a lot of undulation in them so look for a player who is in the zone inside of ten feet.
Now while the par 4s play easy, last year it ranked T-30th in par 4 scoring average the par 5s are some of the toughest on the PGA Tour. Last year they played to a 4.81 scoring average and ranked T-6th on tour, so they aren’t layups like many other courses.
Now things are going to be tricky this week, there are several storms off the Atlantic coast in between Florida and the outer banks of North Carolina that could play havoc on this event with bad weather on Sunday and Monday, so the players will have to be prepared for anything. Right now long range forecasts call for a nice weekend with cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 70s.
So in looking at our four categories, our first is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. This is going to be the most important item again since a player that hits it long, straight and then hits a lot of greens won’t be beat, just like last week at the Barclays when Patrick Reed was 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green.

Our second stat is strokes Gained around-the-green, because not only is scrambling important but there are a lot of greenside bunkers so getting them up and down will be important.
Our third stat is putting inside of 10 feet, yes this will be substantial because the greens have lot’s of undulation so making those putts in between five to ten feet is important. Our fourth category is par 4 average, last year it ranked T-30th in this stat which means that players need to play the par 4s low to win.

This is the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, so those toward the bottom need to play well or sit out a month. But at Bethpage, the course will be for the taking of many of the players, and I can see some excellent scoring.
*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: A combination of driving distance, accuracy and greens hit this will tell you who plays the best from tee to green which will be important this week.

*Strokes Gained around-the-green: A combination of sand saves and scrambling to see who gets it up and down saving par the most.

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Par 4 Average: How players do on par 4s, who plays them the best.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Deutsche Bank Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

• Now in past years it was obvious that this course was a long hitters haven.  Last year we had Rickie Fowler win, he hits it long.  In 2014 & ’13 Chris Kirk and Henrik Stenson won, both who are in the middle of all driving distance stats but in 2012, we had Rory McIlroy, in 2010 we had Charley Hoffman.  In 2008, it was Vijay Singh while in 2007, it was Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2006, all very long hitters  Still don’t rule out the short hitters, just look at 2009 winner Steve Stricker, the same with Webb Simpson in 2011.  But he isn’t the only one, the 2005 champion Olin Browne is one of the shorter hitters on tour and 2003 runner-up Rocco Mediate is also short.  In the same breath, it’s safe to say that accuracy doesn’t pay on this course.  In it’s 13 years of being played, of the 164 players that have finished in the top-ten of the tournament, only 38 have been in the top-ten in driving accuracy.  One more key driving accuracy stat, of the 52 courses used on the PGA Tour it ranked 27th in driving accuracy that means that you can be wild on this course.
• Looking at the stats from its 13-year history, look for those with sharp iron games to produce the best score.  Look for a smart player that doesn’t attack the holes but plays placement golf to win.  Of the 13 winners, three led the greens hit category (winner Henrik Stenson led in 2013) while the first eight of nine winners were in the top-ten.  Last year Fowler was 6th in greens hit.
• Since the event doesn’t start until Friday, players will have an extra day to get use to the course.  Look for those that are starting to practice on Tuesday to rule the roost.
• The greens are 6,000 square feet, which is about average on the PGA Tour. They have a lot of undulation in them, and that could be one of the reasons why winners haven’t dominated the putting stats.
• Looking for that one stat that jumps up and grabs you?  Par 4 average is the key here, TPC Boston is one of the easiest in par 4s.  Last year it was T-30th with a 4.01 average on it’s par 4s so look for players that play well on par 4s.  Last year Rickie Fowler was 9 under, Chris Kirk was 6 under on the Par 4s, in 2013 Henrik Stenson was the best playing them in 14 under par
•  Interesting to note that Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy won the Deutsche Bank the month after taking the PGA Championship.  It’s also interesting to note that Deutsche Bank winners Woods, Singh and Adam Scott have also been runner-up here.  As for this year’s PGA Champion Jimmy Walker, you have to think he is chomping at the bit for Friday’s opening round.
• Scrambling is a very important stat and one to look at.  Here is the rank of Deutsche Bank Championship winners between 2007-2014.

Year Winner                 Scrambling (rank)

2015 Rickie Fowler       78.95% (1st)

2014 Chris Kirk               80.77% (4)

2013 Henrik Stenson       81.82% (T-6)

2012 Rory McIlroy       70.83% (10)

2011 Webb Simpson           76.00% (5)

2010 Charley Hoffman 82.35% (2)

2009 Steve Stricker        73.91% (10)

2008 Vijay Singh                 76.92% (4)

2007 Phil Mickelson         86.36% (1)

Every winner in the playoff era finished in the top 10 in scrambling at TPC Boston.

Lastly, the outlook for the tournament couldn’t be any better, as the long range forecast calls for great weather the whole week of the event.  But with bad weather in the Caribbean you never know if this great weather forecast could get ugly.