BlogWho will win at Innisbrook on Sunday?

Things you need to know for Sunday’s final round at Innisbrook:

This week it’s Robert Garrigus, guess that’s all part of the parody on the PGA Tour?

Gosh another Saturday night in which we have some guy that we have barley heard of in the lead. In 2014 it’s been a real adventure having the third round lead,just look at some of the guys like Brooks Koepka, Chris Kirk, Briny Baird, Robert Karlsson, Patrick Reed, Gary Woodland, William McGirt and Chesson Hadley.  This time last year you probably only heard of one of them, Gary Woodland and that’s because he won twice on the PGA Tour.  Even guys like Jimmy Walker and Ryan Moore aren’t what you call house-hold names  This week’s third round leader Robert Garrigus has a victory, he won the 2010 Children’s Miracle Network but let’s face up to the fact that in ten starts this year he hasn’t been a factor in any of them, his best finish was a T12th in the 2014 opening Frys.Com.  Now that hasn’t stop other winners this year like Kevin Stadler and Scott Stallings but the odds are long on a player that hasn’t been consistent over the year  If I was to give you 25 choices on Wednesday evening, Garrigus would not be on your list of guys that would be leading after the third round.  Guess that’s the parody on the PGA Tour for 2014 in a season that has seen some really bizarre and strange winners like Jimmy Walker, Ryan Moore, Chris Kirk, Patrick Reed, Scott Stallings, Kevin Stadler, Russell Henley and Chesson Hadley.

Is Garrigus a complete surprise?

In a way yes.  He hasn’t been a factor in a tournament since the Wyndham Championship last August.  In looking at his play in tournaments that he either led, co-lead or was within five of the lead you can see it’s been very slim for Garrigus.  One thing in his favor was his runner-up finish at Innsbrook in 2012 showing that he can play well here, but frankly this charge by him this week has caught everyone off guard.

So how did Garrigus do it?

With his length.  Garrigus is one of the longest hitters on tour, this year he is ranked 6th in driving distance, has been in the top-ten of this stat every year since joining the tour in 2006 and even led the stat in 2010 and 2009.  This week he has torn apart the par 5s, playing them in ten under par.  Of his 13 birdies this week, ten of them are on par 5s which tells the who story of his week.

So who is close to Garrigus?

Kevin Na is one shot back, John Senden is two back and Justin Ross is three shots back.  Then T5th at 4 under, four shots back is Retief Goosen, Charley Hoffman and Scott Langley so Garrigus will have some heat behind him.

Can Garrigus hold on?

That is a loaded question.  The way the tour is going this year we have seen a lot of weird guys like Jimmy Walker, Chris Kirk, Harris English, Patrick Reed, Scott Stallings, Kevin Stadler, Russell Henley and Chesson Hadley find a way of holding on to win.  Maybe the law of averages will be on Garrigus side, in the three previous times he led or co-led going into the final round he finished second so maybe this week will be his week, but I doubt it.

So if not Garrigus, who?

• Kevin Na is a pretty good candidate.  First he’s had a good year with two top-fours and has been very consistent.  Na may have only made eight birdies with half of them on the par 5s, but he only made one bogey in 54 holes, on the tenth hole on Saturday.  He leads the driving accuracy stat which is important on this course but most of all he has the experience factor on his side making 254 PGA Tour starts.  I feel that in order for Na to win he needs to walk into victory at the end, kind of like the way he did in his 2011 Shriners Hospital victory when he birdied 15, 16 and 17 to catch and pass Nick Watney.  If Na takes the lead early on the front nine I don’t see him holding on, the same with Garrigus if he gets off to a good start I think he is too nervous of a guy to hold on.
• John Senden is also another good candidate because of his play of late.  On Friday after playing 30 holes he was one over par and struggling just to make the cut.  He birdied the 4th and 6th holes (started on the back nine) and with a bogey free 64 on Saturday he has played his last 24 holes in nine under par.  Senden is T2nd in greens hit with 42 of 54 and I can see that continuing on Sunday.  Also remember he has a good track record on this course, finishing T2nd in 2007 & ’08.

So what about Justin Rose and Retief Goosen?

• Rose has been rehabbing his right shoulder, having tendinitis.  This has been a problem for several months and he didn’t play in January.  He also withdrew from Honda two weeks ago so I am a bit suspicious.  He played well on Saturday only to ruin what should of been a perfect day with a bogey at 18.  This is a perfect course for him and he is a bit lucky when you consider he is T2nd in driving distance but only played the par 5s in three under.  That’s like giving strokes to the field, he is seven shots back of Garrigus on the par 5s.
• As for Retief Goosen I like him.  With his 64 on Saturday he climbed 59 positions on the leaderboard, going from making the cut by two shots to now being just 4 off the lead.  Goosen has won this event twice and you know his game is up for the challenge with his last victory being his Valspar win in 2009.  Goosen stepped it up with the putter on Saturday only taking 25 putts making a total of 103 feet of putts.  For the week he is fourth in that category making 268 feet of putts.  When Goosen putts well he finds a way of winning.

Any other players to think about?

Yes past champion Luke Donald who got into contention with a 67 on Saturday. Donald had that great year in 2011 when he won the money title on both the PGA and European Tour, took over the number one world ranking and was on top of the world.  But he played poorly in 2013 which started him thinking that maybe he didn’t hit the ball long enough.  He switched coaches last summer and that meant a swing change with Chuck Cook helping him.  He showed signs of progress winning in Japan in November but he has been slow on the PGA Tour until his T8th at Honda.  So don’t be surprise to see Donald make a run on Sunday, in 2012 he was T7th and three shots back going into the final round and won so anything is possible

Below is a list of the top-37 players on the leader board going to even par which are 8 shots back of Garrigus: