BlogValero Texas Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

For the first time since 2012 the Valero Texas Open goes back to it’s post Masters spot and just like that the event suffers from a lack of marquee players not coming.  It’s a hard date since many played a lot leading up to the Masters and with the Players in just three weeks, along with the tough summer schedule many are taking these weeks off.  It’s probably a good thing when you consider how bad the weather is going to be in San Antonio.  With all of the rain in the area, some parts of San Antonio have received over five inches in the last three days with flash flood watches up for Tuesday, many may not get a practice round.  Once the tournament starts, things will really get tough as all of the rain will make for very sloppy conditions during the week.

I have to also wonder if the course may not be too tough for a lot of players.  Yes Phil Mickelson was a surprise entry, but with Jordan Spieth taking a pass and many players not attending, maybe the course being so demanding is having players think otherwise about attending.

One big storyline will be the Bryson DeChambeau who turned pro last week and finished T-4th at the RBC Heritage.  With the high finish, Dechambeau earned 123 FedEx Cup points and he needs to hit about 361 in his next five starts to be granted special temporary membership into the PGA Tour. He is in the field this week.  If he can’t achieve that mark he will be forced to try and get onto the Web.Com Tour for 2017.  So for him the race is on, while for Danny Willett he has announced that he has taken PGA Tour membership and with the Masters win will receive a five year exemption .

Things you need to know about the Valero Texas Open:

The Valero Texas Open is an historic tournament, it’s the 6th oldest professional tournament in golf world-wide, the 3rd oldest on the PGA Tour and the longest held in the same city. In 2012, the tournament celebrated its 90th anniversary. Dating back to 1922, the tournament has been through 16 names to date, but it can always trace its lineage back to San Antonio, Texas. As for host courses of the Valero Texas Open, the event has predominantly been hosted by the Brackenridge Park Golf Course, the Willow Springs Golf Course, Fort Sam Houston Golf Course, Oak Hills Country Club, and  between 1995 and 2009, The Resort at La Cantera.  Six years ago they moved to the new TPC San Antonio, which is part of a two course project.

Always known as a place where pros can go to score low until the move to TPC San Antonio, the Valero Texas Open has been the site of numerous scoring feats. Al Brosch, in the 1951 Texas Open held at Brackenridge Park, became the first PGA Tour player to post a score of 60. In 1955, just four years later, Mike Souchak, again playing at Brackenridge Park, posted a 72-hole score of 257, which would stand as the PGA Tour record until 2001. In the 2003 Valero Texas Open, Tommy Armour fired a 254 at LaCantera to set the record for lowest 72-hole score in PGA Tour history. His score to par of 26-under also was a Tour record for Par 70 courses. His score eclipsed Donnie Hammond’s 22-under par, which he shot at the 1989 Valero Texas Open

Course information:

• TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks Course
• San Antonio, Tx.
• 7,435 yards     Par 36-36–72
• AT&T Oaks features a course rating of 76.5 and a slope rating from the back tees of 148. The tees, fairway, and rough are Bermuda Grass but different strains, Emerald Ultradwarf on the tees, TifSport on the fairways, Champion Ultradwarf on the greens and Bandera in the rough. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay at the course and it’s members.
• The average green size at AT&T Oaks is 6,400 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour.  has 58 bunkers and water that comes into play on 3 holes.
• In 2014 the TPC San Antonio was the 8th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.286 average, playing a shot and a quarter over par.
• In 2013 the TPC San Antonio was the 15th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.740 average playing .740 stroke over par.
• There wasn’t anything wrong with LaCantera, the reason for the move is financial because the event now doesn’t have to pay a site fee which has been reported in the $300,000 neighborhood.  The course being used is the AT&T Oaks, which will play at 7,435 yards and a par 72.  It was design by Greg Norman with Sergio Garcia as the player consulted.  The course opened in 2009 and will be the 12th TPC course that will be used on the PGA Tour this year.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at the TPC San Antonio:

This is based on the most important stats for TPC San Antonio, based on data from last years Valero Texas Open, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four catagories.
The scoring average of the field at TPC San Antonio in 2015 was 74.52, so with par being 72 that means the average score was two and a half shots over par, making TPC San Antonio the 2nd hardest course to score on in 2015. In the history of the PGA Tour it’s one of the highest scoring averages for a non-major so it’s important to note that all the players will be tested this week. Was last year a fluke? Possibly, but in 2014 the course was 8th hardest, in 2012 it was the 4th hardest and in 2011 it was the 7th hardest so no two ways around it, TPC San Antonio will be hard. One of the reasons it was hard last year was winds, they blow in the 10 to 25 mph range during tournament play. This year the players will have another problem and that is not only the weather during the week in which rain and thunderstorms will hamper players with the exception of Friday, but the course has been saturated with heavy rains over the last week, in the neighborhood of six inches. So the course will play long and the rough, which is always hard will be even harder. If winds do pop up look for another week of the average score being in the 74 mark.

So TPC San Antonio has been and will be one of the toughest courses the tour will see this year. Hitting it hard and far is important, last year it ranked 15th hardest in driving distance, but it’s very important to place drives in the fairway. Last year the course was 2nd in greens in regulation, which shows that not only are the greens hard to hit, a lot to do with not getting drives in the fairway, but the greens are very demanding to hit. Not only is it 2nd in greens hit, but it was the hardest course in proximity to the hole In the last four years all the winners have been in the top-15 in greens in regulation, last year’s winner Jimmy Walker and 2012 champion Ben Curtis led that stat. So our first key stat is strokes gained Tee-to-Green because you have to do well in this stat to win. Last year the course ranked T-12th in that stat, winner Jimmy Walker was 3rd in this stat.

Just like we have seen the last couple of weeks on tour, if you miss fairways you have to scramble well, last year TPC San Antonio ranked 11th in scrambling on tour. While Jimmy Walker may of only ranked 27th in this stat, it’s also important to not that he hit 51 of 72 greens so he was really good in that.

Another important item in doing well is putting, last year the course ranked 8th in making putts from ten feet and in with 86.35 average. Again in looking at our profile Walker ranked T-7th in this stat making 63 of 69 putts from ten feet and in.

Last is birdie avearge and it’s hard to image but the players only averaged making 2.67 birdies per round. That is not many, it was the lowest on Tour and another reason Jimmy Walker won as he made a total of 22 birdies for the week, with was a 5.50 average, again the best of anyone in the field.
*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Stat is great barometer on how players games are from tee to green, taking a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy, greens hit and proximity to the hole.

*Scrambling: So which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the area’s around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Birdie Average: Average number of birdies made over the course of a round

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2016:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Valero Texas Open:

Key stat for the winner:

• For the regulars of past Valero Texas Open’s, six years ago was the start of the new era here.  For players like Zach Johnson, who won twice and Justin Leonard, who won three times at LaCantera, it was an unpleasant experience as Leonard has not finished better than T30th in six tries while Johnson missed the cut in 2010 but did finish T6th in 2014.   In looking at the performance stats from 2010 through 2015 hitting greens seemed to be the key for many in the top-ten. Last year the course had the 2nd hardest greens to hit on tour at 51.73% while in 2014 it had the hardest greens to hit on the PGA Tour as only 55.24% of them were hit.  That has been the buzz about the course, in it’s six years on the PGA Tour it’s never been above 7th ranked in Greens Hit.
• On the other realm of the spectrum, TPC San Antonio does have the easiest greens on tour to putt.  In 2015 it ranked 38 out of 51 courses on average putts and putts per round with an average of 28.52.  The course ranked 44th in most one putts of any course on tour with a 42.81 average.
• Combination of that tells us that a player needs to hit lot’s of greens and putt well.  In looking at the six winners at TPC San Antonio all of them ranked in the top-20 in both greens hit and # of putts (all except for Brendan Steele in 2011 ranked T40th in greens hit).

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Unimportant stat: With the course being new in 2010, it makes sense with wins from inexperience winners like Brendan Steele, Martin Laird and 2014 winner Steven Bowditch.  But Jimmy Walker won last year, Adam Scott won in 2010 and Ben Curtis in 2012 so the players should know the course by now.
• Since TPC San Antonio joined the PGA Tour in 2010, it has never been out of the top-20 of toughest courses on tour and been in the top-eight four of the last five years.
• One trend that is pretty unique at the Texas Open is the fact that 3rd round leaders tend to rule the roast.  Since 1988 the 3rd round leader has won 20 of the 28 tournaments so if you are looking for a neat bet with someone, bet the 3rd round leader to win the tournament.  In the last five years at TPC San Antonio, four of the six champions led after the third round.
• Look for the course to play tough, with thick rough and tight fairways that will play havoc on the players.  Hitting it long doesn’t cut it at TPC San Antonio, of those that have finished in the top-3 only six have been in the top-ten in driving distance.  So this is a course that power won’t dictate a win.
• Fifteen previous Texas Opens have been decided in playoffs, the last coming in 2009 when Zach Johnson defeated James Driscoll.  So there hasn’t been any playoffs yet at TPC San Antonio.
• In looking at the long range weather forecast it’s not going to be very good all week long as Friday and Saturday may be the only days that rain doesn’t effect the tournament.