DraftKings Picks Mexico, Tshwane

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

My DraftKings picks for the week

Our new Golfstats fantasy game of the week on DraftKings

Want to thank all 19 of you that participated in our first Golfstats fantasy game on DrafKings.  The good news, it was very successful, the bad news it sold out in just 10 hours and many of you didn’t get in.  For those that did get in thanks and congratulations to “heybillp” for winning with the picks Rickie Fowler (Win), Billy Horschel (T-4th), Martin Kaymer (T-4th), Tyrrell Hatton (T-4th), Bud Cauley (T-27th) and Russell Henley (T-43rd). Here are the results:

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What impressed me the most is that those in the top-seven had all six guys that made the cut, again that is a very important part of the game.
Now the good news for this week, our game GOLFstats.com – WGC Mexico will have 50 players in the field, cost $5 and pay off the top-ten players with first place getting $56.25 and last getting $9.00. We wanted to post this earlier but a strange thing happened, we posted the game about noon yesterday right at the beginning of the big Amazon east coast breakdown which took most big sites down, including DraftKings. So by the time they were back up and all, the writing of this blog was put back to this morning. One thing that makes that OK, the late tee times in Mexico which won’t start until noon on Thursday, so you have plenty of time. As I post this we already have 31 players signed up (we need 50), so you better hustle for the remaining 19 spots. As I say, the purpose of this is to get 200 into the game each week so that we can start a GOLFstats/DraftKings league that will have weekly contests starting at the Masters and going through the Tour Championship. In the league we will have prizes for the players that accumulate the most points and hopefully it will be fun for all, including members of GOLFstats. To sign up go to or send me an email at Sal@Golfstats.Com
One last thing, when we fill out the game we will post that in bold red letters so that people don’t try and enter a game they can’t get into. Again tell your friends, anyone with a DraftKings account can play and we want to be able to get up to 200 players in the coming weeks.

(Update – All 50 spots in the DraftKings game sold in under 12 hours.  Very happy with the interest, we will open the game to more people, probably 100 for next week’s Valspar Championship.  If you folks have any thoughts or ideas for out DraftKings league please send them to me at Sal@golfstats.com)

For those wondering what happen to our Course Key Fantasy Stats, since this is the first time that Club de Golf Chapultepec has held a PGA Tour event, we had no history to tell which stats were good. Another missing feature this week is making the most cuts, since the WGC events have no cuts no need to have it, look for it next week at Valspar.

So how did last week go?

I broke my four week streak of picking winners as my top pick finished T-14th. What is weird I had three players at that mark, Sergio Garica-cost $10,900, Brendan Steele-cost $8,100 and Graeme McDowell-Cost $7,300. I had two players finish T-27th, Luke Donald-Cost $7,600 and Stewart Cink-cost $7,100 while I was very disappointed that Russell Knox-cost $9,000 missed the cut. Amazing and frustrating every time a high price guy missing the cut. I played in ten games at a cost of $84 dollars and only won $66 for a total lose of $18. The real bummer, in the $33 game I was just a point short of winning last place money of $50 and in my other games, the same thing I was very, very close to having a $200 week, oh well. For those wondering how my European Tour picks did, wasn’t in the money as Trevor Fisher placed T-16th, David Drysdale was T-23rd, Anthony Wall and Thomas Aiken were T-38th, Richard Sterne was T-66th and David Howell missed the cut. I was very surprised to have five make the cut in a field of 210 but I didn’t come close to sniffing a high finish my anyone.

Picks for the WGC-Mexico Championship
It’s always hard picking a tournament that has a new course. There is no history and we have three things that we have to think about, who is playing well right now, who matches up well for the course and who is in a good frame of mind right now. Club de Golf Chapultepec has one big difference than most courses, it sits at about 7,800 feet in attitude and with the low humidity for the week the ball will fly a long way. The course is set up for 7,330 but will play closure to 6,600 yards so common sense says that the bombers will have a field day. Not the case, the course is lined with thousands of mature trees that are right on the edge of the fairway so accuracy is important. A Dustin Johnson can do ok on a tight, rough lined course because if he drives in 330 yards right into the rough, he will only have a 100 yard wedge which he can gouge out of the rough. But if that shot is 100 yards with big trees blocking your path, he doesn’t have a chance. Another thing about the course, 13 of the 14 par 4s and 5s are dogleg and the long hitters have to be careful not to run it through the dogleg, same kind of problem when they play Colonial in Fort Worth. Now the greens are small so hitting them will be a challenge and they have slope on them. The speed won’t be fast but since they are a combination bent and poa annua that will be challenging for them. So who are my picks?
Lot’s of good picks with Dustin Johnson at the very high price of $12,500, Jordan Spieth at $11,500, Rory McIlroy at $10,900, Hideki Matsuyama at $10,700 and Henrik Stenson at $10,300. Last week’s winner Rickie Fowler is next at $9,900.  In looking at this list have to eliminate McIlroy, who is coming off a rib injury and probably will be rusty, Matsuyama has struggled of late, in his last start at Riviera (also played in the worst of the weather) he missed the cut and have to eliminate Fowler just on the fact that he won last week and has different problems that will hinder him from learning the course in the limited time.
My first pick is Johnson at the ridiculous price of $12,500. The thinking here is that he will get at least a top-five finish and so many people will pick him if you don’t and he does finish in the top-five your way behind the eight ball, so this is a keeping up with the Jones pick. Of course I know that if he falls flat on his face it will be a blow, but the blow will go to about half the betters this week who will bet for Johnson. Of course Jordan Spieth could have a very good week and a lot of players will go with Spieth, so if Jordan does well and Johnson doesn’t I am in a bad way. With that I am now pressed due to the salary cap to go for some middle of the road players. I tried to make it work with Justin Rose, who I think will play very well this week.  He has the mind and game to play well but at $9,600, but I couldn’t work it out. I also liked Tyrrell Hatton at $8,300 and couldn’t make that work. So I started from the bottom and worked by way up, one of the reasons I couldn’t take Hatton. My first bottom-feeder choice is Jhonattan Vegas at $6,600. Think he is a bargin because being from Venezuela, Spanish is his first language so he may feel at home in Mexico City. I also like the fact that he is trending up, finished T-15th at Genesis (that course Riviera is a lot like Chapultepec) and then was T-4th at Honda, so like my pick of Vegas. Next up is Thomas Pieters at $6,800. He missed the cut at the Honda and that doesn’t worry me since he finished T-2nd at the Genesis and like I say Riviera is a lot like Chapultepec. Next up at $7,500 is Martin Kaymer who I think will have a great year and is also trending up with his T-4th at the Honda. Kaymer is a shotmaking type of player and I think he will be great at Chapultepec. Originally I had Paul Casey at $7,800, he was one of my early picks and with that I was left with $8,800 and had a choice to take Justin Thomas at $8,700 who isn’t playing well or Sergio Garcia at $8,500. I took Garcia, who I think is knocking on the door for a win, but after I picked him at the Genesis and Honda, he has disappointed me. So it was time to tear things apart, I dropped Garcia and Casey which left me $16,600. As I told you earlier I really love Rose and at $9,600 was able to now take him. That left me with $7,000 and guess who was there ready to get picked, yes Bill Haas. He has played in six 2017 events going back to Safeway and was T-20th in Napa, his highest finish of the year. He was T-4th at the WGC-HSBC Champions and as I said see the parallels between Chapultepec and Riviera with his T-11th pick at the Genesis, so he is a winner in my books. So here are my picks:
Dustin Johnson at $12,500
Justin Rose at $9,600
Martin Kaymer at $7,500
Bill Haas at $7,000
Thomas Pieters at $6,800
Jhonattan Vegas at $6,600

 

European Tour picks for Tshwane open
The Euros are still in South Africa and again a warning, this field is terrible with only two top-100 world rank player in the field, #93 Jordan L. Smith and #95 Jaco Van Zyl. The next ranked player after that is 112, Rikard Karlberg, so you can see it’s a hard field to pick from. Now I can’t say it’s a terrible event to play in compared to last week in which Joburg had a field of 210 and a lot of players to miss the cut. So you can venture into this week, but have to pick guys that are hot and play well in South Africa. Briefly here are my picks, first off is Peter Uihlein at $10,600, he is trending up as he has made six cuts in a row, was T7th at the South African Open and T-5th in Dubai. After than Jaco Van Zyl at $10,100 caught my eye with his T-10th last year and T-15th finishes in 2015 in this event. I also like that he was T-2nd at Qatar last month and was T-18th at the South African Open and 10th at the Nedbank so he plays well in South Africa. Next up is Darren Fichardt at $8,900 he won last week at Joburg and was runner-up at the Tshwane in 2013 and T-6th in 2014. With those picks I am down to just $20,400 so it’s time to go bottom feeding looking for guys that will make the cut. At $7,300 I chose Stuart Manley mainly because he was T-2nd last week at the Joburg Open and I am hoping the good play again carries over. Next is Robert Rock at $6,800, his year has been shaky missing the cut in all three desert swing events, but made the cut at Maybank (T-26th) and Joburg (T-78th). What i liked about him was finishing T-8th at this event in 2015 and 14th in 2014. My last pick was Justin Harding at $6,300, at this point I am really bottom-feeding and it’s really ugly the talent at this money point. Frankly I should probably just redo the top half of my choices, but at the last moment found South African Harding, who is a regular member of the sunshine tour and has seen some success winning the Vodacom Orgins of Golf Simola back in October and finishing T-2nd in December in the Lion of Africa Cape Town Open. Last week he was T-68th at the Joburg, so I put my trust in Harding to just make the cut. So here are my picks:
Peter Uihlein at $10,600
Jaco Van Zyl at $10,100
Darren Fichardt at $8,900
Stuart Manley at $7,300
Robert Rock at $6,800
Justin Harding at $6,300

So who did you pick and did you get into our DraftKings Mexico game?

Comments

  1. Am I the only one who feels Bridgestone Invitational is the replica of this event with trees lining every shot ?

  2. Firestone isn’t the only one like that, Hilton Head over the years has seen it’s tree’s grow and most of the holes are down chutes of trees. The best one is probably Colonial that is not only tree line but you have to make sure you don’t drive it too far and go through the dogleg. Riviera has a lot of trees and I think Muirfield Village has a lot of mature trees on it. But the only course close to this course is probably Colonial, because players this week just can’t cut loose with a driver because of the doglegs they will run out of fairway. So look for a lot of laying up off the tee this week.

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