Hilton Head Key Fantasy Stats

RBC Heritage

April 12th – 15th, 2017

Harbour Town G.L.

Hilton Head, SC

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,099

Purse: $6.5 million

with $1,062,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Branden Grace

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Harbour Town, based on data from last years RBC Heritage, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2017. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four catagories.
The scoring average of the field at Harbour Town in 2015 was 72.29 so with par being 71 it was a shot and a quarter over par making it the 8th hardest course on the PGA Tour last year. So why the change compared to 2015 when it was 70.49 and the 26th hardest course to score on in 2015? Wind, it blew everyday between 10-20 MPH with gusts ranging from 30MPH on Thursday to 25 on Sunday. In looking at the weather for Hilton Head Island it’s going to be a picture perfect week with sunny skies everyday and temperatures ranging from 74 to 78 degrees and winds each day about 10mph. So look for better scoring and that could mean an inexperience winner, someone that has a sharp iron game, can hit all of the greens and 2 putt. Still Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America, it’s a totally different experience in which ball placement is upmost over power. Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue so look for a precision player to win. Looking at all drives in 2016 the course averaged 2267.9 yards, meaning it was the shortest of all the courses on tour. Since it’s so low (The highest on tour last year was Glen Abbey, 303.8 yards) players not only throttle it down, laying up with 3 woods or long irons. So our first important stat is driving accuracy, you have to drive it well at Harbour Town. Last year the course ranked 18th in this stat compared to the others on tour. In looking at past champions six of the last eight were in the top-ten in accuracy for the week and eight of the last eight champions were in the bottom in driving distance as Carl Pettersson was the longest driver as he ranked 31st that year.

For our next categories in looking at the stats for Harbour Town, one thing is obvious, the course caters to those that hits lots of greens, last year it ranked 2nd on the Tour In the last 20 years, eleven of the champions ranked in the top-ten with five of them leading the category, the last being Matt Kuchar in 2014. Last year’s winner Branden Grace ranked T-14th in greens hit

Next important is around and on the greens. What makes Harbour Town tough is the greens, at 4,500 square feet they are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour to hit, so it makes sense that scramblers do well since the course ranked 26th last year and 49th best in 2015 which in this case means that the average player got it up and down 64.68% of the time, only three courses saw averages higher so you have to scramble well to exist. Last we pick a stat rarely used, strokes gained putting. That’s because at Hilton Head putting well doesn’t mean much, but you still have to make those nasty 4o to 8 footers. It ranked 43rd at 28.24 being less putts are taken at Harbour Town.

So how did last years winner Branden Grace become victorious last year? Despite breaking our mold as he was T-50th in driving accuracy and T-14th in greens hit, Grace was good in other stats. In rough proximity he ranked 7th, meaning all those fairways he missed he got the ball on the green from the rough. Grace was 3rd in scrambling and strokes gained around the green and he was 10th in strokes gained putting. More importantly Grace owned the par 4s, he was 6 under on them the best of anyone in the field.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of fairways hit, last year Heritage finished 18th in this stat and was 36th in 2015.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is great barometer on how good players manage their games around Harbour Town. Every year the players that hit lot’s of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the area’s around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Strokes Gained putting: Who gains the most strokes with their putter, since Harbour Town’s greens are so small you will see less putts as you won’t have as many three putts but you still need to make those putts under ten feet.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2017 with 123 of the 132 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

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