Welcome to GOLFstats.com! You are currently viewing a special post on GOLFstats.com .
For the best experience and full access to GOLFstats.com, CLICK HERE to sign up for a $15 one month GOLFstats Ultimate account!

BlogHP Byron Nelson Championship Preview and Picks

HP Byron Nelson Championship

May 16 – 19, 2013

TPC Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas

Irving, Texas

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,166

Purse: $6.7 million

with $1.17 million to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jason Dufner

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

  • The field includes eleven of the top 50 in the latest  Official
  • World Golf Rankings, with one from the top-ten, Louis Oosthuizen.    The five between 11 and 25 are Matt Kuchar, Keegan Bradley, Charl Schwartzel, Jason Dufner and Jason Day.  the five players from 26 to 50 are Martin Kaymer, Robert Garrigus, Scott Piercy, D.A. Points and Fredrik Jacobson.
  •  The field includes six of the Top 25 on this year’s  PGA Tour
  • money list.  Those players include Matt Kuchar, D.A. Points, Jason Day, Charles Howell III, Jimmy Walker and Keegan Bradley.
  • The field includes eight past champions: Jason Dufner (2012), Keegan Bradley (2011), Jason Day (2010), Rory Sabbatini (2009), Scott Verplank (2007), Ted Purdy (2005), Vijay Singh (2003) and Jesper Parnevik (2000).
  • The field includes 3 players that have won on the PGA Tour this year: Brian Gay (Humana Challenge); Matt Kuchar (WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship);  D.A. Points (Shell Houston Open)
  • A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in HP Byron Nelson field is our performance chart listed by average finish
  • One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the  best average performances at Byron Nelson in the last five years or check out our brand new and sortable 8-year glance of the Byron Nelson.
  • A a good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.
  • Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the HP Byron Nelson Championship

Player The Players Championship Wells Fargo Championship Volvo China Open Zurich Classic of New Orleans Ballantine’s Championship RBC Heritage Open de Espana Masters Valero Texas Open Shell Houston Open Trophee Hassan II Arnold Palmer Invitational Maybank Malaysian Open
Marc Leishman
(283.33 pts)
T8
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T9
(30)
DNP
 
T4
(160)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Jason Day
(258 pts)
T19
(62)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T30
(13.33)
DNP
 
3
(180)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T45
(2.67)
DNP
 
D.A. Points
(222.67 pts)
T48
(16)
T16
(34)
DNP
 
2
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T38
(24)
T53
(2)
Win
(50)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Angel Cabrera
(220 pts)
T55
(12)
71
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
2
(200)
DNP
 
T16
(11.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Jeff Maggert
(189.33 pts)
T2
(200)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
63
(3)
DNP
 
T66
(1.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-1.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jimmy Walker
(173.33 pts)
T15
(70)
T22
(28)
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T31
(6.33)
T50
(2.33)
DNP
 
T8
(16.67)
DNP
 
Ryan Palmer
(168.33 pts)
T5
(140)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T32
(18)
DNP
 
T64
(2)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(11.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Matt Kuchar
(135.33 pts)
T48
(16)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T35
(10)
DNP
 
T8
(100)
T22
(9.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Louis Oosthuizen
(125.33 pts)
T19
(62)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
5
(70)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
T10
(13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Ben Crane
(122.67 pts)
T8
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T48
(5.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T4
(26.67)
DNP
 
T65
(0.67)
DNP
 
Charl Schwartzel
(98 pts)
T55
(12)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T25
(50)
T22
(9.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T4
(26.67)
Charley Hoffman
(92.67 pts)
T37
(26)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T6
(40)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T3
(30)
T20
(10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Harris English
(92.67 pts)
T33
(34)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T6
(60)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T61
(1.33)
T50
(2.33)
DNP
 
T57
(1.67)
DNP
 
Boo Weekley
(90 pts)
T48
(16)
T58
(5)
DNP
 
T6
(60)
DNP
 
T42
(6)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T45
(2.67)
DNP
 
T69
(0.33)
DNP
 
Casey Wittenberg
(88.33 pts)
T8
(100)
T68
(1)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
70
(0.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
D.H. Lee
(82 pts)
DNP
 
T16
(34)
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
T83
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T60
(1.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jason Dufner
(81.67 pts)
T62
(6)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T42
(9)
DNP
 
T35
(10)
DNP
 
T20
(60)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Jeff Overton
(79.67 pts)
T26
(48)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T42
(9)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(18.33)
T27
(7.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Brian Davis
(78 pts)
T72
(0)
T27
(23)
DNP
 
T32
(18)
DNP
 
T30
(13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T29
(7)
T6
(20)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Freddie Jacobson
(77.67 pts)
T48
(16)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T25
(50)
T15
(11.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
John Huh
(74.33 pts)
T68
(2)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T11
(78)
72
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T27
(7.67)
DNP
 
Henrik Norlander
(71.67 pts)
DNP
 
T16
(34)
DNP
 
T15
(35)
DNP
 
T78
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T53
(2)
T65
(0.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
John Senden
(70.33 pts)
T43
(18)
T22
(28)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T35
(30)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T27
(7.67)
DNP
 
Jerry Kelly
(68.67 pts)
T37
(26)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T47
(8)
DNP
 
5
(46.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T60
(1.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Matt Every
(68.33 pts)
T26
(48)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T32
(18)
DNP
 
T83
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T79
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T34
(5.67)
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the HP Byron Nelson Championship

Player The Players Championship Wells Fargo Championship Volvo China Open Zurich Classic of New Orleans Ballantine’s Championship RBC Heritage Open de Espana Masters Valero Texas Open Shell Houston Open Trophee Hassan II Arnold Palmer Invitational Maybank Malaysian Open
David Mathis
(-53.33 pts)
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Brian Stuard
(-38.67 pts)
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T16
(11.33)
DNP
 
Erik Compton
(-37 pts)
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-1.67)
DNP
 
T16
(11.33)
DNP
 
Tom Gillis
(-36.67 pts)
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Troy Matteson
(-36.33 pts)
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T83
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T53
(2)
T56
(1.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Charlie Beljan
(-34.33 pts)
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T61
(1.33)
T38
(4)
DNP
 
T69
(0.33)
DNP
 
Colt Knost
(-32.33 pts)
WD
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
69
(1)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Y.E. Yang
(-32 pts)
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T49
(8)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Mike Weir
(-31.67 pts)
DNP
 
T73
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-1.67)
DNP
 
Nicholas Thompson
(-31.33 pts)
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T48
(5.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T53
(2)
T60
(1.33)
DNP
 
T72
(0)
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

The Byron Nelson is a very complicated event.  Of all the tournaments on the PGA Tour it’s always the top in giving money away, the Salesmanship Club which runs it does a first class job.  Every year it raises more money than any other tournament, in 2012 it raised $5.37 million and since the Salesmanship Club’s inception more than $127 million has gone to charities.  Another plus, the tournament has been embraced by the local Dallas community and is always well attended.

But the dirty little secret on the tournament, despite the perfect location of TPC Four Seasons Resort and the ability to give a lot of folks good vantage points to all of the action the players don’t like the course.  Each year it’s voted one of the most unpopular courses.  When Byron Nelson was still alive out of respect to him they would show up, but since his death in 2005 marquee attendance has been low and the event doesn’t get the stellar fields it use to get.

All of that is about to change as the Byron Nelson will move to a new course in 2019.  The course called Trinity Forest will be in Dallas so it will move away from Irving, Texas.  The course is being built by the Coore & Crenshaw design firm and is being built on an old landfill along Loop 12, east of Interstate 45.  The course right now is Northwest of town and near Dallas Ft.Worth airport.  The new course is on the opposition end of Dallas, south of the city.

Despite all of the changes that have been made to TPC Four Season it has never done the job in appeasing players.  So with a new course, that will be taylor made with this event in mind, it will become the sweetheart of the PGA Tour.  It’s funny, that was the thinking ten years ago at the Shell Houston Open and things didn’t work out that way.  The reason the event gets marquee names is the date, a week before the Masters is a big draw.  But the course never became the sweetheart of the tour.  So will this change things?  Good question, guess we will have to wait until 2019 but one thing is for sure, the design team of Crenshaw and Coore are the best and if anyone can build a course that players will like, this is the team to do it.

Things you need to know about this week at the HP Byron Nelson

The course was renovated with new greens and new bunkering a couple of years ago.  Other than a couple of holes like 11, which now is a short par 4 that is driveable, the course will be a lot different and will take a while for many to understand all of the rolls and angles.  Still, the layout is the same so those that have done well in the past will do well again.  One aspect that has been taken away: since 1995 one round has been played across the street at the Cottonwood Valley course but that has been dropped as all four rounds will be played at the TPC Four Seasons.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the  HP Byron Nelson:

Key stat for the winner:

TPC at Four Season is a strategic, thinking man’s type of course. You look at some of the winners, players like Adam Scott, Vijay Singh, Jesper Parnevik, Loren Roberts, John Cook, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Scott Simpson, Nick Price and Fred Couples, and you can see what they have in common.

  • Experience has always been a key to winning, since the tournament has been played at the TPC at Four Seasons. Ted Purdy, Neal Lancaster, Robert Damron, Brett Wetterich, Jason Day and Keegan Bradley are the only players that won for the first time.  We can call the Lancaster win a fluke since the tournament was curtailed to 36 holes due to rain, but can’t explain the Purdy, Damron and Wetterich wins other than to say they were playing great at the right time.  Still, experience on a renovated course isn’t much help as we saw in 2011 with first year attendee Keegan Bradley winning so the chances are even greater that a first-timer or someone not experienced at winning could prevail this week.
  • Now I don’t want to jinx the tournament, but weather in Texas can sometimes be iffy in May.  But not this week as right now forecasters are calling for a perfect week of weather with every day in the low 90s with low humidity.  There is a 30% chance of thunderstorms on Sunday, but   Considering how things have been this year with almost a dozen events having to deal with anything from rain, win and at the Match Play snow, anything could happen.
  • Except for John Cook, Loren Roberts and Shigeki Maruyama, all the winners since the tournament added one round at Cottonwood Valley in 1995 have been long hitters. That is because both courses tend to favor length and a player can get away with errant shots, especially at Cottonwood Valley. The question was with Cottonwood Valley dropping out, will length still be important? In looking at the stats, only two of the top 12 players were inside the top 15 of driving distance in 2008,  while in 2009 4 of the top-15.  In 2010 only two of the top-10 came through, 2 of the 12 in 2011 and 4 of the 14 last year so hitting it long really doesn’t matter.  Now looking at accuracy, of the same top 12 only three were inside the top-15 in 2008 while six of the top-15 were in the top-ten in 2009 with three of the top-10 in 2010, five in 2011 and four last year so accuracy has become more important.
  • So what is important to play well at the Byron Nelson?  Hitting lots of greens, since 1998 only four players (Jesper Parnevik in 2000, Shigeki Maruyama in 2002, Rory Sabbatini in 2009 and Jason Day in 2010) have been out of the top nine in greens hit. So it’s very key to been very keen on hitting greens.  In 2011 Keegan Bradley hit 47 of the 72 greens which ranked T6th while last year Jason Dufner hit 58 of 72 greens which racked first.
  • Very important to note that to play well at the EDS Byron Nelson you have to go low.  Since 1995 there have been 3,381 rounds in the 60s out of 8,344 rounds played, a 40.5%.  That is the third best of any tournament holding a four-round event (behind John Derre, 44.85 & defunct Milwaukee, 44.2%), which means that you have to go low to play well.  So in looking for that special winner this week look at this list of players that have shot the most rounds in the 60s in 2013:
  • Rds in 60s-Player
  • 26 – Brendon de Jonge
  • 26 – Billy Horschel
  • 25 – Jimmy Walker***
  • 22 – Charles Howell III***
  • 22 – Chris Kirk
  • 21 – Kevin Streelman
  • 20 – Harris English***
  • 20 – Kevin Stadler
  • 20 – Brian Stuard***

*** In the Nelson field this week

 

Who to watch for at the HP Byron Nelson Championship

Best Bets:

Jason Day

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T9 5 Win

Always seems to play well on this course, been in the top-ten three of his three starts.

Matt Kuchar

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T15 T6 T39 T42 T39

Hasn’t done much since his match play victory, this could be a good week to shine.

Marc Leishman

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T3 CUT T12 T8

A great place for him to finally break out and win, has three top-tens in a row this year and finished in the top-ten three times in this event including T3rd last year.

Best of the rest:

Ryan Palmer

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T9 2 CUT CUT CUT CUT T73 CUT CUT

Watch him this week, was T5th last week, T9th last year and 2nd in 2011.

Keegan Bradley

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T24 Win

Good track record on this course and ready to punch through with another win.

Jimmy Walker

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T29 CUT T53 T23 T35 T73 CUT

This Texan is looking to break out, could be the course for him to do that on.

Charles Howell III

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T41 T20 T45 CUT T34 CUT T60 CUT CUT

You never know when this player will break through, this could be the place for that to happen.

Solid contenders

Jason Dufner

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
Win T8 CUT CUT

The defender has a good record on this course, could contend this week.

Charl Schwartzel

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Has never played in this event but he could do very well.

D.A. Points

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T19 T40 T7 3 CUT CUT

Since his Zurich win has played well and could contend this week.

Robert Garrigus

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T9 T20 T26 T16 CUT T62 CUT

Could be a good sleeper pick.

Long shots that could come through:

Jordan Spieth

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T32 T16

This is a perfect venue for him to finally break through. I can easily see him winning this week.

J.J. Henry

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T3 T27 T32 T60 T57 T13 T13 T10 T41 CUT T47

This week could be a great spot for him to break out of his slump for the year.

Scott Verplank

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T5 CUT T61 Win WD T6 T14 4 T50 2

Past champion that is healthy again looking to get things back together, could be a good place for that to happen.

Speak Your Mind