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BlogBMW PGA Championship Preview and Picks

BMW PGA Championship

May 23 – 26, 2013

Wentworth Club (West Course)

Virginia Water, Surrey, England

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,302

Purse: $6.2 million

with $1,033,670 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Luke Donald

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

  • The field includes 18 of the top 50 in the latest  Official World Golf Rankings, with four from the top-ten, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Luke Donald and Graeme McDowell.    The four between 11 and 25 are Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia, Ian Poulter and Ernie Els.  The remaining ten players from 26 to 50 are Branden Grace, Martin Kaymer, Thorbjorn Olesen, Gonzalo Fdez-Castano, Jamie Donaldson, Francesco Molinari, Paul Lawrie, Nicolas Colsaerts, Thongchai Jaidee and Richard Sterne.
  • The field includes 22 of the Top 25 on this year’s  European Tour Race to Dubai money list.  Those players include Graeme McDowell, Brett Rumford, Sergio Garcia, Richard Sterne, Thorbjorn Olesen, Thongchai Jaidee, Scott Jamieson, Branden Grace, Thomas Aiken, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Stephen Gallacher, Chris Wood, Jamie Donaldson, Ian Poulter, Mikko Ilonen, Felipe Aguilar, Justin Rose, Marcus Fraser, George Coetzee, Darren Fichardt, Marcel Siem and Richard Santos
  • The field includes ten past champions: Luke Donald (2012 & ’11), Simon Khan (2010), Paul Casey (2009), Miguel Angel Jimenez (2008), Anders Hansen (2007 & ’02), David Howell (2006), Scott Drummond (2004), Ignacio Garrido (2003), Colin Montgomerie (2000, 1999 & ’98) and Jose Maria Olazabal (1994).
  • A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in BMW PGA Championship field is our performance chart listed by average finish
  • One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the BMW PGA in the last five years or check out our brand new and sortable 8-year glance of the BMW PGA Championship.
  • A a good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

 

 

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the BMW PGA Championship

Player Volvo World Match Play Championship Madeira Island Open HP Byron Nelson Championship The Players Championship Volvo China Open Wells Fargo Championship Ballantine’s Championship Zurich Classic of New Orleans Open de Espana RBC Heritage Masters Valero Texas Open Trophee Hassan II
Brett Rumford
(291.67 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(150)
DNP
 
Win
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Lee Westwood
(230 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(100)
DNP
 
T4
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Graeme McDowell
(220 pts)
Win
(150)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(100)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Sergio Garcia
(209.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(100)
DNP
 
T16
(34)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T12
(25.33)
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Rory McIlroy
(198.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(100)
DNP
 
T10
(40)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T25
(25)
2
(33.33)
DNP
 
Felipe Aguilar
(165 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
T40
(6.67)
DNP
 
T2
(66.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Branden Grace
(155 pts)
T3
(90)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T48
(16)
T33
(17)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(32)
DNP
 
DNP
 
David Lynn
(154.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T26
(48)
DNP
 
2
(100)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
T46
(8)
14
(12)
DNP
 
Luke Donald
(147 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T19
(62)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T3
(60)
T25
(25)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Thongchai Jaidee
(140 pts)
2
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T6
(40)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Pablo Larrazabal
(130 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T5
(70)
DNP
 
T6
(40)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
4
(26.67)
Mikko Ilonen
(126.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
2
(100)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T2
(33.33)
Raphael Jacquelin
(126 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T14
(36)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
Win
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Robert-Jan Derksen
(117.67 pts)
DNP
 
T19
(31)
DNP
 
DNP
 
4
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T35
(10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Craig Lee
(104.33 pts)
DNP
 
4
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T9
(15)
Stephen Gallacher
(103 pts)
T17
(33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T24
(26)
DNP
 
T6
(40)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T38
(4)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
(97 pts)
T17
(33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T12
(38)
DNP
 
T11
(26)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Ricardo Santos
(94.33 pts)
DNP
 
T19
(31)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T5
(70)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Martin Kaymer
(94.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T5
(70)
T43
(18)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T66
(1.33)
T35
(15)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Paul Waring
(94 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(29)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T4
(53.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(11.67)
David Horsey
(86.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T4
(53.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T2
(33.33)
Peter Whiteford
(86.67 pts)
DNP
 
T24
(26)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T61
(4)
DNP
 
T2
(66.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Victor Dubuisson
(86 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
3
(90)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T61
(2.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Nicolas Colsaerts
(83.33 pts)
T5
(70)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T8
(33.33)
DNP
 
T88
(0)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Joost Luiten
(81 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(11.67)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the BMW PGA Championship

Player Volvo World Match Play Championship Madeira Island Open HP Byron Nelson Championship The Players Championship Volvo China Open Wells Fargo Championship Ballantine’s Championship Zurich Classic of New Orleans Open de Espana RBC Heritage Masters Valero Texas Open Trophee Hassan II
Jorge Campillo
(-24.67 pts)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T24
(8.67)
Maarten Lafeber
(-22.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
63
(1)
Fredrik Andersson Hed
(-22 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T61
(1.33)
Martin Wiegele
(-21 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T52
(2.33)
Alexandre Kaleka
(-20 pts)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Alvaro Quiros
(-20 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Robert Coles
(-19.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T38
(4)
Christian Cevaer
(-17.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T61
(2.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Tom Lewis
(-16.67 pts)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Gary Lockerbie
(-15 pts)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(11.67)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

This is the most prestige event on the European Tour.  It’s played on a classic old course Wentworth, about 20 miles west of London.  Over the years it’s been a tough time getting a top-notch field, as some European Tour members took passes (like Sergio Garcia) to play on the PGA Tour instead of it’s tours premiere events.  But that has changed as more marquee players are realizing how important this event is.

I can only wish that more American players would venture to London to play in this event, I would really like to see a deal made with the PGA Tour in which money won in this event would be official money on the PGA Tour.  If that could happen, this event would have a star-studded field.  Now realistically the odds on this happening are slim and none, but it’s always nice to dream.

 

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the BMW PGA Championship.

 

 

Key stat for the winner:

  • The course is a classic shotmaker course, that is why those that hit lot’s of greens like Luke Donald have done well at Wentworth.  Having a short game is also important because for those that miss the greens, getting it up and down is tough as there are a lot of bumps and knolls around these greens.
  •  Experience has always been a key to winning as you see the list of champions including Luke Donald, Colin Montgomerie, Ian Woosnam, Bernhard Langer, Jose Maria Olazabal, Nick Faldo and Seve Ballesteros.  But others with very little experience like Simon Khan, Scott Drummond and Ignacio Garrido have won.  Still have to go with the player with lot’s of experience, even though guys like Ernie Els, Lee Westwood and Padraig Harrington have yet to grace the winners circle at the BMW PGA.
  •  It’s interesting to note that Ernie Els has won the Match Play and other events at Wentworth.  But he never won the BMW PGA Championship.  Could he finally break that jinx?  He has a home at Wentworth and has help redesign the course so if there isn’t a person with more “homefield advantage” I can’t think of any.
  • Look for lot’s of excitement as the course finishes with a pair of par 5s.  Two years ago Ernie Els made some changes to the 18th by putting a body of water in front of the green.  This brought the scoring average up on the hole, but defeated the purpose of having a player attack the hole in order to win.  The hole has been redone since and it’s now a gambling hole and one that is getting to be better. Look for more excitement in the finish this year.

 

Who to watch for at the BMW PGA Championship

Best Bets:

Justin Rose

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T2 CUT T10 CUT 2 T11 T32 CUT T32

His game hasn’t been sharp, but coming to a place that he has seen success with a pair of runner-up finishes.

Sergio Garcia

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Yes it’s been almost a decade since he last played in this event, but he is on a mission to prove that last week was nothing more than a fluke.

Graeme McDowell

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT CUT T28 T13 57 CUT T47 T27 T27 CUT

Has never played well at Wentworth, but he has never come into this event on such a high as his game is really sharp right now.

Best of the rest:

Rory McIlroy

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T24 T48 5 CUT

Hasn’t played well the last three years here, but played well at the Players and was 5th here in 2009.

Branden Grace

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
5

Was fifth last year and third at the Match Play last week, look for him to be playing well.

Martin Kaymer

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T15 T31 CUT T11 T16 T30

Watch him this week, played well at Byron Nelson and can play well this week.

Brett Rumford

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T70 CUT CUT T43 CUT 73 4 CUT T40

Has two wins in the last month and coming to a place that he finished 4th at in 2006.

Solid contenders

Luke Donald

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
Win Win T2 T35 T3 7 T25 T18

Looking for the hat-trick, winning three in a row is always a tough task and I can’t see that happening this week. Still Donald will have a good week, just won’t win.

Lee Westwood

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T33 2 T10 CUT WD T12 CUT T27 CUT CUT CUT CUT

Hard to believe that he hasn’t won here, can he do it yes, can he do it this week, have questions on that.

Ernie Els

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T7 T16 T34 T21 CUT T24 T19 T39 7 4 T39

Still looking for that win in this event at Wentworth.

Long shots that could come through:

Peter Lawrie

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
4 CUT T56 CUT T34 T12 T25 T39 T42 CUT

Watch him, good track record here and can be a force.

Marcel Siem

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T7 T53 T41 T59 T65 T71 WD T49 T37

Has been knocking on the door this year.

Felipe Aguilar

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T13 CUT CUT T16

Been in the top-ten in three of his last four starts

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