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BlogMemorial Tournament Preview and Picks

Memorial Tournament

May 30 – June 2, 2013

Muirfield Village G.C.

Dubin, Ohio

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,352

Purse: $6.2 million

with $1,116,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Tiger Woods

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

  • A very good field which includes 33 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with eight of the top-ten in the field: Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Brandt Snedeker, Luke Donald, Matt Kuchar and Lee Westwood.  There are nine players ranked 11 to 25: top-25 players in the field: Keegan Bradley, Charl Schwartzel, Webb Simpson, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Ernie Els, Hunter Mahan, Nick Watney and Jason Day.  There are 16 players from 26 to 50 in the rankings they are Bo Van Pelt, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson, Branden Grace, Bill Haas, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson, Kevin Streelman, Gonzalo Fdez-Castano, Scott Piercy, Carl Pettersson, Robert Garrigus, D.A. Points, Nicolas Colsaerts, Ryan Moore and Michael Thompson.
  • The field includes 19 of the Top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list:  Those players include Tiger Woods, Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Streelman, Billy Horschel, Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley, D.A. Points, Jason Day, Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Hunter Mahan, Charles Howell III, Sang-Moon Bae, Russell Henley, Martin Laird, Jimmy Walker, David Lingmerth and Michael Thompson.
  • The field includes 9 past Memorial champions: Tiger Woods (2012. ’09, ’01, ’00 & 1999), Justin Rose (2010), Kenny Perry (2008,’03 & 1991), K.J. Choi (2007), Carl Pettersson (2006), Ernie Els (2004), Jim Furyk (2002), Fred Couples (1998) and Vijay Singh (1997).
  • The field includes 15 players that have won on the PGA Tour this year: Dustin Johnson (Hyundai Tournament of Champions); Russell Henley (Sony Open in Hawaii); Brian Gay (Humana Challenge); Tiger Woods (Farmers Insurance Open, WGC-Cadillac Championship, Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players); Brandt Snedeker (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am); Matt Kuchar (WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship); Michael Thompson (The Honda Classic); Scott Brown (Puerto Rico Open); Kevin Streelman (Tampa Bay Championship); D.A. Points (Shell Houston Open); Martin Laird (Valero Texas Open); Adam Scott (The Masters); Billy Horschel (Zurich Classic of New Orleans); Derek Ernst (Wells Fargo Championship); Sang-Moon Bae (HP Byron Nelson Championship)
  • A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Memorial Tournament field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at Memorial Tournament in the last five years or check out our brand new and sortable 8-year glance at the Memorial Tournament.
  • A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.
  • Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Memorial Tournament

Player Crowne Plaza Colonial BMW PGA Championship HP Byron Nelson Volvo World Match Play Championship The Players Championship Wells Fargo Volvo China Open Zurich Classic of New Orleans Ballantine’s Championship RBC Heritage Open de Espana Masters Valero Texas Open
Tiger Woods
(380 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(300)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T4
(80)
DNP
 
Lee Westwood
(293.33 pts)
DNP
 
T9
(90)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(100)
T4
(53.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
Kevin Streelman
(250 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T2
(200)
T6
(40)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T3
(30)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
Marc Leishman
(241 pts)
T46
(8)
DNP
 
T12
(38)
DNP
 
T8
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T9
(15)
DNP
 
T4
(80)
DNP
 
Henrik Stenson
(213.33 pts)
T35
(15)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T17
(33)
T5
(140)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(32)
DNP
 
Adam Scott
(212 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T19
(62)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(150)
DNP
 
David Lingmerth
(212 pts)
T18
(32)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T2
(200)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Branden Grace
(201.33 pts)
DNP
 
T24
(52)
DNP
 
T3
(90)
T48
(16)
DNP
 
T33
(11.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(32)
DNP
 
Matt Kuchar
(197.33 pts)
2
(100)
DNP
 
T33
(17)
DNP
 
T48
(16)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T35
(5)
DNP
 
T8
(50)
T22
(9.33)
Sang-Moon Bae
(185 pts)
T76
(0)
DNP
 
Win
(150)
DNP
 
T33
(34)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T48
(2.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-1.67)
Jason Day
(181.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T27
(23)
DNP
 
T19
(62)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T30
(6.67)
DNP
 
3
(90)
DNP
 
Martin Laird
(179.33 pts)
T54
(6)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T5
(140)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
Win
(50)
Zach Johnson
(171 pts)
3
(90)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T19
(62)
T65
(1.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T48
(2.67)
DNP
 
T35
(15)
DNP
 
Rory McIlroy
(165 pts)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(100)
T10
(26.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T25
(25)
2
(33.33)
Brandt Snedeker
(161.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T59
(1.33)
DNP
 
T6
(60)
DNP
 
D.A. Points
(157.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T12
(38)
DNP
 
T48
(16)
T16
(22.67)
DNP
 
2
(66.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T38
(12)
T53
(2)
Ernie Els
(157 pts)
DNP
 
T6
(120)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(23.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T13
(37)
DNP
 
Jimmy Walker
(151.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T27
(23)
DNP
 
T15
(70)
T22
(18.67)
DNP
 
T8
(33.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T31
(6.33)
Charley Hoffman
(151.33 pts)
T18
(32)
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
T37
(26)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T6
(20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T3
(30)
Bo Van Pelt
(140 pts)
T31
(19)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T9
(45)
T62
(6)
T6
(40)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T71
(0)
DNP
 
T20
(30)
DNP
 
Nicolas Colsaerts
(138.67 pts)
DNP
 
T24
(52)
DNP
 
T5
(70)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T8
(33.33)
DNP
 
T88
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
Matt Every
(130 pts)
T4
(80)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T26
(48)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T32
(12)
DNP
 
T83
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T79
(0)
Shane Lowry
(126.33 pts)
DNP
 
T12
(76)
DNP
 
T9
(45)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
69
(0.33)
DNP
 
T15
(11.67)
Charl Schwartzel
(126.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
3
(90)
DNP
 
T55
(12)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T25
(25)
T22
(9.33)
Billy Horschel
(125 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(100)
DNP
 
T9
(15)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T3
(30)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Memorial Tournament

Player Crowne Plaza Colonial BMW PGA Championship HP Byron Nelson Volvo World Match Play Championship The Players Championship Wells Fargo Volvo China Open Zurich Classic of New Orleans Ballantine’s Championship RBC Heritage Open de Espana Masters Valero Texas Open
Nicholas Thompson
(-48.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T48
(2.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T53
(2)
Jonathan Byrd
(-39.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
T80
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T66
(0.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Charlie Beljan
(-33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T43
(9)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T61
(1.33)
Johnson Wagner
(-32.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T18
(10.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T74
(0)
Cameron Tringale
(-30.67 pts)
T54
(6)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
J.J. Henry
(-29 pts)
T42
(9)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
62
(2)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Robert Allenby
(-28 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
T27
(15.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Bryce Molder
(-22 pts)
T65
(2)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T22
(9.33)
Aaron Baddeley
(-22 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T42
(3)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(11.67)
Brendan Steele
(-22 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T32
(12)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T46
(2.67)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

It’s down to just two events before the U.S. Open, with many thinking that Muirfield Village most resembling a U.S. Open course.  It will be interesting to see how players approach this week, will Tiger start preparing by hitting more irons off the tee this week.  Also will be interesting if Tiger can keep his win streak going.

This week will also be the last of the Sergio Garcia squabble with Tiger.  Of course Woods will be better in putting an end to it by simply doing what he did last week in a press conference for the AT&T National but simply saying there is bad blood between him and Sergio and thats, that.  Writers won’t be able to goat Tiger into saying something stupid, so things will probably calm down until Tiger and Sergio play together.

Finally this is an important week for Tiger, or is it?  Tiger has proven that he can win, he has done it now seven times in the last 14 months.  What he has to prove is that he can win a major. In Woods mind the four major championship are the heart and soul of his year.  He could win a dozen events but if none of them are majors, the season will be deemed unsuccessful in his mind.  In the next 12 weeks, three of the four majors will be played as Woods tries to win his first major since 2008.  After a T4th in the Masters, Woods would like to change the tide at the U.S. Open.  But over the course of the last couple of months, Woods has made it be know that his game is in great shape and he fully expects to win a major, very, very soon.

 

Things you need to know about this week at the Memorial

This is one of those courses that will get you ready for a U.S. Open. As a matter of fact it would be a perfect Open venue. It has the length, tight fairways with three-inch plus rough, tree line and fast undulating greens. Just about everything that you would see at a U.S. Open is at Muirfield Village.  It always ranks as one of the toughest courses on Tour.  Last year it was played in perfect weather conditions and was 6th toughest course with a 73.677 average.  This week is going to see a combination of mild tempertures but with no rain.  It doesn’t seem to be enough to cause any major problems, but one thing that I see is winds in the neighborhood of 15 mph on Thursday, Friday and Saturday which could cause scores to go higher.  Sunday is suppose to be picture perfect with no rain, temperatures in the high 60s with no wind to speak of.

 

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Memorial:

Key stat for the winner:

  • Those that do well in majors, do well at Muirfield Village.  Of the 26 different champions of the Memorial they have accounted for 454 wins on the PGA Tour while 16 have won a total of 66 major championships. What’s more, 13 of the last 19 Memorial champions have been a winner of a major championship.
  • Tournaments that can claim having the most major winners (Since 1976)
  • 27 – Hyundai Tournament of Champions
  • 25 – Players Championship
  • 24 – Memorial Tournament
  • 22 – Verizon Heritage
  • 22 – Farmers Insurance
  •  In the history of the Memorial only one leader after the first round has won (Ernie Els in 2004).  In 2010 Justin Rose won while he was a co-leader after the first round. 13 second-round leaders have won and 16 third-round leader have won.  Since 1994, only six 54-hole leaders have failed to win (2001, 2002, 2007,  2008, 2009 & 2010).  Last year Tiger Woods was T11th after the first round then was T2nd after the second round and 4th after the third round.
  • Nine of the last 15 winners were in the top four in greens hit. In 2009 Tiger Woods was T3rd in greens hit while Justin Rose was T13th in 2010, Steve Stricker was T30th in 2011 and Tiger Woods was T1st last year.
  •  Overpowering the par fives is crucial. The last 12 winners have played the par 5s in a average of 9-under, in 2011 Justin Rose was 8 under while Stricker was 6 under in 2011 and Tiger Woods was 8 under in 2012.
  • Accuracy is key to winning at Memorial, eight of the last ten winners have been in the top-10 in driving accuracy, which proves the point that you have to drive the ball well at Muirfield Village.  In 2009 Tiger Woods was 2nd while in 2010 Justin Rose was T10th.  In 2011 Steve Stricker kept the tradition up as he was T3rd but in 2012 Tiger Woods broke the tradition when he was T14th in driving making him the first player out of the top-ten in driving since Ernie Els won in 2004.
  • In its 37-year history there have only been three playoffs, the last coming in 1992.  The next year (1993) was the last one that had a dramatic finish when Paul Azinger holed out of the bunker on the final hole to win by one.  Since then every Memorial except for three (2005, ’07 and ’11) has been won by at least two shots or more.
  • Active tournaments that has the least amount of playoffs since 1976:
  • 3 – Memorial
  • 4 – Players championship
  • 6 – Justin Tiberlake
  • 6 – Honda Classic
  • 6 – Arnold Palmer Invitational
  • 7 – John Deere Classic
  • Only nine times in the history of the Memorial has a player shot four rounds in the 60s with seven of them winning. Steve Stricker did it in 2011 but the the last time that happened before that was in 2005 when Bart Bryant prevailed.

Who to watch for at the Memorial Tournament

Best Bets:

Tiger Woods

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
Win T19 Win T15 T3 3 T4 T22 Win

Would you pick anyone else, come on.

Matt Kuchar

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T2 T8 T5 T10 T13 CUT T32

Seems to know how to finish in the top-ten, has done it in his last four starts including a T2nd in 2011. Seems like he can’t do anything wrong on this course.

Ernie Els

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T58 61 CUT T8 CUT T15 T68 T45 Win T13 T13 T63

His game is getting better each time he plays, has six top-tens at the Memorial.

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Best of the rest:

Justin Rose

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
8 CUT Win CUT T2 T14 T75 4

Game hasn’t been sharp lately but you know he is just a swing thought or putt away from stardom, could come at a place he cherishes with his win in 2010.

Adam Scott

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T46 T33 CUT T5 T4 T52 T29

Muirfield Village isn’t one of his favorite courses but he is playing well enough to win any place.

Luke Donald

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
12 T7 T14 T6 T35 CUT T45

Lots of low finishes but hasn’t come close to winning at Muirfield Village. Could that change this week is doubtful, but if he could get rolling could be a part of the final push.

Lee Westwood

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T29

An old name that could be good this week if his head is screwed on properly.

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Solid contenders

RIckie Fowler

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T52 T22 2

Like him on this course and the way he is playing.

Ryan Moore

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T38 T22 T5 CUT T10 2 T31

Good course for him, showed it with his runner-up finish in 2007.

Kevin Streelman

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T7 T33 CUT

Should watch him, he could go low and complete. Has done it before like last week and in 2011 at Muirfield when he finished T7th.

Brandt Snedeker

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
WD CUT CUT CUT CUT

Still looking for a return to what his game was before he hurt himself.

Long shots that could come through:

Billy Horschel

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

You never know, this is a good venue for him getting that PGA Tour card.

Mark Wilson

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T66 T7 CUT T3 T30 T59

watch him, could be a good week for him as a lot of his wins are surprises on courses like Muirfield Village.

D.A. Points

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T20 T23 T72

Has been good lately and it will take every one of his powers as he tries to surprise a lot of us again.

Not this week

Rory McIlroy

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT 5 T10

Could he, should he, can he of course he can but just think his game is not in the right place right now.

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