BlogFedEx St. Jude Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Sorry but the news is more about the U.S. Open and what is going to happen next week at Merion than on what is happening in Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Classic.  Qualifying for the U.S. Open is over and it’s always intriguing the list of players that make it into the U.S. Open.  It’s an interesting question on what is better of each of the four majors in determining their own fields. The philosophy of Augusta National in trying to get the best players, but in a limited dose.  If you want the best field in golf the PGA Championship always comes close, that’s because they invite the top-100 off the world rankings.  Now the USGA invites the top-50 but the rest they give back to qualifying.

In a way this keeps the tradition of making it open to all players around the country and around the world.  Many say that for the PGA Championship to invite the 51st to 100th it looks great on paper having all of these top players, but the emphasis is lost on those players because it just mirrors any other tournament on the PGA Tour and European Tour in getting the most of their membership in tournaments.

Now the British Open to a degree let’s in folks based on a qualifying system.  But over the years it’s gotten a bit waterdowned and only about a dozen spots are open to regular qualifiers before the Open Championship.  But the U.S. Open is still back to the way they use to do qualifying 75 years ago as of the 11 sites that had Open qualifying on Monday, about 52 of those in the field will come out of these qualifying sites.  Of course the bulk of the qualifiers will be made up of players on the PGA Tour and Web.Com Tours, but there are about a dozen players like Gavin Hall, Jim Herman, Grayson Murray and Kevin Phelan to pick out a few which nobody have ever heard of.  So the question is, which is the best way to run a major championship?  Do we just allow the best players in the world in, if that’s the case we have that in the Players Championship.  Or do we allow any golfer that is really good to possibly play?

Many feel that the British Open has it right in keeping their championship open to all but at the same time having the best players in the world also qualifying.  Yes the U.S. Open has qualifying for players in Europe and Japan and 17 got in off of that.  But the Royal and Ancient goes a step further and has a qualifying tournament in Australia, Asia and South Africa also, something that would be nice for the USGA to also offer.  Another group of folks forgotten is those for South America, especially with golf being played in the Olympics in 2016 down in Rio, these folks need to be included.  The bottom line for all these championships, it’s a hard mix to get it right and to also do what they have traditionally done for all these years.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the St. Jude FedEx Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

Major changes came to TPC Southwind five years ago making it tougher.  It’s a bit longer than before, but the landing areas in the fairways have always been generous and have stayed the same.   This doesn’t mean the course is a rollover. There is thick rough to contend with, but again those that hit it accurately will score low this week. One thing that all past champions have in common — except for Dicky Pride, Notah Begay, Jeff Maggert and Brian Gay — is the knack for hitting greens.  Most of the champions since 1990 not only did well the week of the FedEx, but also in the year they won as the chart below shows:

• In 2012 Dustin Johnson hit 50 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T4th, for the year he ranked 81st.
• In 2011 Harrison Frazar hit 50 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T8th, for the year he ranked 164th.
• In 2010 Lee Westwood hit 47 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T9th, for the year he ranked 37th.
• In 2009 Brian Gay hit 49 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T19th, for the year he ranked 168th.
• In 2008 Justin Leonard hit 45 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T11th, for the year he ranked 54th.
• In 2007 Woody Austin hit 52 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked 2nd, for the year he ranked 67th.
• In 2006 Jeff Maggert hit 39 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T47th, for the year he ranked 98th.
• In 2005 Justin Leonard hit 48 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T4th, for the year he ranked 94th.
• In 2004 David Toms hit 51 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T1st, for the year he ranked T20th.
• In 2003 David Toms hit 58 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked 1st, for the year he ranked 39th.
• In 2002 Len Mattiace< hit 53 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T11th, for the year he ranked 75th.
• In 2001 Bob Estes hit 50 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T22nd, for the year he ranked 45th.
• In 2000 Notah Begay III hit 50 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T16th, for the year he ranked 104th.
• In 1999 Ted Tryba hit 58 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked 1st, for the year he ranked 60th.
• In 1998 Nick Price hit 51 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T8th, for the year he ranked 89th.
• In 1997 Greg Norman hit 59 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked 1st, for the year he ranked 10th.
• In 1996 John Cook hit 61 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked 1st, for the year he ranked 9th.
• In 1995 Jim Gallagher, Jr. hit 50 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T26th, for the year he ranked 66th.
• In 1994 Dicky Pride hit 54 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T14th, for the year he ranked T152n.
• In 1993 Nick Price hit 55 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T12th, for the year he ranked 6th.
• In 1992 Jay Haas hit 57 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked 1st, for the year he ranked 36th.
• In 1991 Fred Couples hit 47 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked T29th, for the year he ranked 16th.
• In 1990 Tom Kite hit 54 of 72 greens at the St. Jude ranked 1st, for the year he ranked 3rd.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• In picking a winner, it should be more feel than strategy.  You see hitting a lot of greens is important, but look at Jeff Maggert in 2006. He felt himself around the course, hitting lots of fairways (he was first) but more importantly he putted lights out (only took 99 for the week). So, yes, hitting greens is important, but when you take less than 100 putts for the week (only been done 131 times since 1997) you are going to win.  The same with Brian Gay in 2009, he didn’t hit as many greens as past champs but had only 100 putts which ranked 2nd.
• Another trend that Maggert’s victory reintroduced was the non-marquee name winning.  In the last decade at Memphis, Maggert joins the list of winners that includes Len Mattiace, Bob Estes, Notah Began III and Ted Tryba.  Look at 2009 winner, Brian Gay and 2011 winner Harrison Frazar, that is a perfect example of what I mean.  So don’t look for that marquee name to be on top of the leaderboard on Sunday, especially this year in which the tournament lacks marquee names.
• In trying to pick a winner, look at those that seem to be just starting to play well.  Maybe this means those that have had a good finish in the Memorial last week or Colonia two weeks ago will prevail.  Look at how the last couple of winners have played, look for that kind of player to do well.  Also look for a player that has had tournaments ruined by one poor round, that is the case with Ryan Palmer and Scott Stallings in 2013 who are playing in Memphis.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium. Just like in a U.S. Open, hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  In the last 15 years, four champions lead the greens hit category and eleven of the 15 were in the top-11 of this category.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week.
• Look for a winning score of 269 this week, that’s the average winning total since TPC Southwind was first used in 1989.
• Since 1989, only three champions (Dicky Pride in 1994, Notah Begay III in 2000 and Dustin Johnson in 2012) were younger than 30.  Six of them were over 40, the oldest being Woody Austin in 2007 at 43 years, 4 months, Greg Norman in 1997 at 42 years, 4 months and 2006 winner Maggert who was 42 years, 3 months.  Last year’s winner Dustin Johnson was 27 while in 2011 Harrison Frazar was 40 days short of his 40th birthday while Brian Gay in 2010 was 37 years, one months old.
• Before 2008, winning the FedEx St. Jude Classic had been part of big seasons for seven of the eight winners. Each had finished the season ranked in the top 25 on the PGA Tour money list the year that they were victorious at the TPC Southwind. The players are Notah Begay III (2000, 20th), Bob Estes (2001, 9th), Len Mattiace (2002, 18th), David Toms (2003, 8th; 2004, 22nd), Justin Leonard (2005, 12th) and Woody Austin (2007, 15th).  Maggert broke that streak when he finished 60th on the money list.  In 2008 Justin Leonard was 33rd on the money list while 2009 winner Brian Gay was 13th.   2010 was a return to the winner having a big season, no two ways about it Lee Westwood had a monster season in 2010.  Same with Harrison Frazar who was on the verge of quitting the PGA Tour before being saved with his FedEx win in 2011 while Johnson in 2012 finished 17th on the money list.