Welcome to GOLFstats.com! You are currently viewing a special post on GOLFstats.com .
For the best experience and full access to GOLFstats.com, CLICK HERE to sign up for a $15 one month GOLFstats Ultimate account!

BlogAT&T National Preview and Picks

AT&T National

June 27 – 30, 2013

Congressional C.C. (Blue Course)

Bethesda, Md.

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,569

Purse: $6.5 million

with $1.17 million to the winner

Defending Champion:
Tiger Woods (WD)

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the AT&T National

Player Travelers BMW International Open U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Classic Lyoness Open Memorial Nordea Masters Crowne Plaza Colonial BMW PGA Byron Nelson Volvo World Match Play Championship The Players Wells Fargo
Hunter Mahan
(240.17 pts)
T24
(26)
DNP T4
(160)
DNP DNP T16
(22.67)
DNP T26
(16)
DNP DNP DNP T19
(15.5)
T73
(0)
Jason Day
(236.83 pts)
DNP DNP T2
(200)
DNP DNP T41
(6)
DNP DNP DNP T27
(15.33)
DNP T19
(15.5)
DNP
Billy Horschel
(201 pts)
DNP DNP T4
(160)
T10
(40)
DNP T41
(6)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP
Scott Stallings
(198.33 pts)
DNP DNP T53
(0)
T2
(100)
DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
Graham Delaet
(166.67 pts)
3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T22
(18.67)
DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP T26
(12)
DNP
Harris English
(162.83 pts)
T43
(7)
DNP DNP Win
(132)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T17
(22)
DNP T33
(8.5)
DNP
Bo Van Pelt
(147 pts)
T43
(7)
DNP T21
(58)
DNP DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T31
(12.67)
DNP DNP T9
(30)
T62
(0)
T6
(20)
Chris Stroud
(145.17 pts)
2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T53
(0)
DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP DNP DNP T33
(8.5)
T80
(0)
Ken Duke
(142.33 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP T16
(22.67)
DNP T31
(12.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
John Rollins
(137 pts)
T79
(0)
DNP DNP 6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP CUT
(-5)
T22
(9.33)
David Lingmerth
(134 pts)
DNP DNP T17
(66)
DNP DNP T57
(0)
DNP T18
(21.33)
DNP DNP DNP T2
(50)
CUT
(-3.33)
Nicolas Colsaerts
(132.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T10
(80)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T24
(26)
DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Ryan Palmer
(130.33 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-20)
4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP T14
(24)
DNP T33
(11.33)
DNP T5
(35)
DNP
Charley Hoffman
(126.17 pts)
T7
(55)
DNP T45
(10)
DNP DNP T63
(0)
DNP T18
(21.33)
DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP T37
(6.5)
DNP
Rickie Fowler
(120.67 pts)
T13
(37)
DNP T10
(80)
DNP DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP T54
(0)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
T73
(0)
David Hearn
(117 pts)
DNP DNP T21
(58)
T18
(32)
DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP T26
(12)
T43
(2.33)
John Huh
(115.33 pts)
T79
(0)
DNP T17
(66)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T11
(26)
DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP T68
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
Patrick Reed
(110.67 pts)
T18
(32)
DNP DNP 5
(70)
DNP DNP DNP T46
(2.67)
DNP 81
(0)
DNP DNP T32
(6)
Kevin Chappell
(102.67 pts)
DNP DNP T32
(36)
DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP T54
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T68
(0)
T80
(0)
Jonas Blixt
(96.33 pts)
T43
(7)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
T11
(26)
DNP DNP DNP 77
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
Martin Laird
(89.67 pts)
DNP DNP T21
(58)
DNP DNP T53
(0)
DNP T54
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T5
(35)
CUT
(-3.33)
Jeff Maggert
(85 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP DNP T66
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T2
(50)
CUT
(-3.33)
Brian Davis
(74.67 pts)
T30
(20)
DNP DNP T35
(15)
DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP T42
(5.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T72
(0)
T27
(7.67)
Brandt Snedeker
(74.33 pts)
DNP DNP T17
(66)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T8
(25)
DNP
J.J. Henry
(74.33 pts)
T5
(70)
DNP DNP T51
(0)
DNP T29
(14)
DNP T42
(5.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the AT&T National

Player Travelers BMW International Open U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Classic Lyoness Open Memorial Nordea Masters Crowne Plaza Colonial BMW PGA Byron Nelson Volvo World Match Play Championship The Players Wells Fargo
Aaron Baddeley
(-58.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP
Y.E. Yang
(-48.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP
Steven Fox
(-43.33 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Troy Matteson
(-41.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
Fabian Gomez
(-36.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP T69
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Lucas Glover
(-34 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
T27
(7.67)
Sean O’Hair
(-33.17 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T43
(3.5)
CUT
(-3.33)
Joe Ogilvie
(-32 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T48
(1.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Johnson Wagner
(-28.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP WD
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
Charlie Beljan
(-27 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T43
(4.67)
DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

When this tournament was first played in 2007, it was the who’s who of golf.  Every marquee name was in the event and it seemed like this event would be one of the most popular on tour.  Makes sense, it’s played on a great course for a great cause, but as we see that isn’t the case anymore.

Only 12 of the top-50 are showing up, some feel that many of the marquee players aren’t big Tiger fans, a reason for them not showing.  In the case of Sergio Garcia there is probably a bit of truth in it, but the tour has changed a lot since the first AT&T National was played in 2007.  Back then it was a perfect bridge event to play between the U.S. Open and the British Open.  But the reality now is that between now and the Presidents Cup, a span of 15 weeks the marquee players will play in the British Open, Bridgestone, PGA Championship, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, BMW, Tour Championship and the Presidents Cup.  That is eight events in the next three months.  For some, they have loyalties to the Scottish Open, Canadian Open and the Wyndhams while some players with families will want to spend time with kids off for the summer.  In a way it’s like the good looking girl in school that has so many offers for the prom, lot’s of good choices.

Because of the great events over the course of the next three months, it’s hard to get those great fields so that is the reason for what many will can a poor field this week.  Also it didn’t help when Tiger Woods had to withdraw because of injury and Justin Rose withdrew because of the drain of winning the U.S. Open.  Still the event will go on and I can bet that another good champion with get crown, you won’t see any “fluke” winners.

 

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the AT&T National:

Key stat for the winner:

Congressional played host to the 1997 and 2011 U.S. Open. Most believe that, like it would be in a U.S. Open, the key statistic will be fairways hit off the tee. The rough is at 4 inches which will be costly for players that don’t hit it straight. Just look at the winners of the last five AT&T’s and ’11 U.S. Open played at Congressional to see how key these stats are for the winners. In 2007 K.J. Choi was T5th in fairways hit, T5th in greens hit and T5th in putting which is a deadly combination. In 2008 Anthony Kim was T12th in greens hit and T8th in putting while in 2009 Tiger was T7th in fairways hit, T3rd in greens hit and T13th in putting.  When Rory McIlroy won the ’11 Open at Congressional, he was first in greens hit.  Last year Tiger was T9th in putting so it just shows you have to play week in the fundamentals of golf to win at Congressional.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Experience at Congresssional will be a big help, look for players that have been in this event the last two years to do well.
  • Hitting greens will be at a premium, just like in a U.S. Open hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week.
  • The par 4s are some of the best in the country so playing them well is important.  For Choi and Kim, they were 8 under in victory while Rory McIlroy was the best in 2011 playing them in 11 under.
  • Weather will play a factor.  Don’t look for a firm, running course because the Washington area has had it’s share of rain in the last month.  On top of that thunderstorms will be a problem with late afternoon showers so the course will play it’s full length and make the rough even rougher.

Who to watch for at the AT&T National

Best Bets:

Jason Day

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T8 T9 CUT CUT

One of the best players on old stately courses like Congressional, was T8th last year and 2nd at Open in 2011. He is long overdue to win one of these.

Hunter Mahan

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T8 T30 2 T12 T8

Great record at Congressional, never finished higher than 12th in 4 AT&T’s at Congressional.

Adam Scott

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
3 T3 CUT

Was 3rd last year, could be ready to win again.

Best of the rest:

Nick Watney

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
10 Win T7 T66 T36

Hasn’t played well this year but this could be the place to break out of the slump.

Brandt Snedeker

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T16 T5 CUT T8

Still looking to regain some of his early season splash, good course to do it at.

Bo Van Pelt

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
2 T11 T11 T54 T12 T54

Was second last year and could win this week.

Rickie Fowler

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T13 CUT

T10th at the U.S. Open, T13th last week at Travelers, could this mean some good play ahead.

Billy Horschel

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT CUT

T4th at U.S. Open and T10th in Memphis, could he carry over the good play?

Solid contenders

Robert Garrigus

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T4 T20 67 T25 T27 T30

Played well last year, could be a key guy this year.

Stuart Appleby

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
WD T11 T16 T60 T3

Game is coming around, you just never know when a guy is ready to win again.

Chris Stroud

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
WD T6 T53 T64

In good stride after his runner-up finish in Travelers, could he carry that over to this week?

Jim Furyk

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T34 CUT T33 T7 T3 T3

T7th in 2009, T3rd in 2008 & ’07. Could he repeat those good numbers this week?

Long shots that could come through:

Graham Delaet

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T49 WD T33

Came close last week, could be a good sign for this week.

J.J. Henry

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
80 T25 CUT T44 T54

Played well last week, could carry over to this year.

Seung-Yul Noh

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T4

Was T4th last year, his game has been in flux all year so maybe coming to a place that he played well at will help.

Not this week:

Ken Duke

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT CUT

Took 187 events and almost a dozen years to finally win at 44. All of this will take his attention away from this week so don’t expect much from him.