BlogAT&T National Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

When this tournament was first played in 2007, it was the who’s who of golf.  Every marquee name was in the event and it seemed like this event would be one of the most popular on tour.  Makes sense, it’s played on a great course for a great cause, but as we see that isn’t the case anymore.

Only 12 of the top-50 are showing up, some feel that many of the marquee players aren’t big Tiger fans, a reason for them not showing.  In the case of Sergio Garcia there is probably a bit of truth in it, but the tour has changed a lot since the first AT&T National was played in 2007.  Back then it was a perfect bridge event to play between the U.S. Open and the British Open.  But the reality now is that between now and the Presidents Cup, a span of 15 weeks the marquee players will play in the British Open, Bridgestone, PGA Championship, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, BMW, Tour Championship and the Presidents Cup.  That is eight events in the next three months.  For some, they have loyalties to the Scottish Open, Canadian Open and the Wyndhams while some players with families will want to spend time with kids off for the summer.  In a way it’s like the good looking girl in school that has so many offers for the prom, lot’s of good choices.

Because of the great events over the course of the next three months, it’s hard to get those great fields so that is the reason for what many will can a poor field this week.  Also it didn’t help when Tiger Woods had to withdraw because of injury and Justin Rose withdrew because of the drain of winning the U.S. Open.  Still the event will go on and I can bet that another good champion with get crown, you won’t see any “fluke” winners.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the AT&T National:

Key stat for the winner:

Congressional played host to the 1997 and 2011 U.S. Open. Most believe that, like it would be in a U.S. Open, the key statistic will be fairways hit off the tee. The rough is at 4 inches which will be costly for players that don’t hit it straight. Just look at the winners of the last five AT&T’s and ’11 U.S. Open played at Congressional to see how key these stats are for the winners. In 2007 K.J. Choi was T5th in fairways hit, T5th in greens hit and T5th in putting which is a deadly combination. In 2008 Anthony Kim was T12th in greens hit and T8th in putting while in 2009 Tiger was T7th in fairways hit, T3rd in greens hit and T13th in putting.  When Rory McIlroy won the ’11 Open at Congressional, he was first in greens hit.  Last year Tiger was T9th in putting so it just shows you have to play week in the fundamentals of golf to win at Congressional.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Experience at Congresssional will be a big help, look for players that have been in this event the last two years to do well.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium, just like in a U.S. Open hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week.
• The par 4s are some of the best in the country so playing them well is important.  For Choi and Kim, they were 8 under in victory while Rory McIlroy was the best in 2011 playing them in 11 under.
• Weather will play a factor.  Don’t look for a firm, running course because the Washington area has had it’s share of rain in the last month.  On top of that thunderstorms will be a problem with late afternoon showers so the course will play it’s full length and make the rough even rougher.