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BlogThe Greenbrier Classic Preview and Picks

The Greenbrier Classic

July 4 – 7, 2013

The Old White Course

White Sulphur Springs, W.V.

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,274

Purse: $6.3

with $1,098,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Ted Potter, Jr.

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 10 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with one of the top-ten in the field: Phil Mickelson.  There are four players ranked 11 to 25, top-25 players in the field: Bubba Watson, Webb Simpson, Bill Haas and Peter Hanson.  There are five players from 26 to 50 in the rankings, they are Nick Watney, Billy Horschel, Scott Piercy, Carl Pettersson and D.A. Points.

The field includes 10 of the Top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list.  Those players include Phil Mickelson, Billy Horschel, Bill Haas, Boo Weekley, D.A. Points, Webb Simpson, Harris English, Russell Henley, Charles Howell III and Ken Duke.

<li>The field includes all three past champion Stuart Appleby (2010), Scott Stallings (2011) and Ted Potter, Jr. (2012).</li>

The field includes nine players that have won on the PGA Tour this year: Russell Henley (Sony Open in Hawaii); Brian Gay (Humana Challenge); Phil Mickelson (Waste Management Phoenix Open); Scott Brown (Puerto Rico Open); D.A. Points (Shell Houston Open); Billy Horschel (Zurich Classic of New Orleans); Boo Weekley (Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial); Ken Duke (Travelers Championship) and Bill Haas (AT&T National).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Greenbrier Classic field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at Greenbrier Classic in the last five years or check out our brand new and sortable 8-year glance at the Greenbrier Classic.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the The Greenbrier Classic

Player AT&T National The Irish Open Travelers Championship BMW PGA Championship U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Classic Lyoness Open Memorial Tournament Nordea Masters Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial BMW International Open HP Byron Nelson Championship The Players Championship
Phil Mickelson
(261.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T2
(200)
T2
(66.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
Graham Delaet
(203.33 pts)
T8
(50)
DNP
 
3
(90)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
DNP
 
T22
(18.67)
DNP
 
T10
(13.33)
T26
(12)
Billy Horschel
(187.67 pts)
T61
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T4
(160)
T10
(26.67)
DNP
 
T41
(6)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
Bill Haas
(160.33 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T4
(53.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
Scott Stallings
(158.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T53
(0)
T2
(66.67)
DNP
 
T4
(53.33)
DNP
 
T4
(53.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
Ken Duke
(152.33 pts)
T52
(0)
DNP
 
Win
(132)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T16
(22.67)
DNP
 
T31
(12.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-5)
Roberto Castro
(148.83 pts)
2
(100)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(21.33)
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
DNP
 
T46
(2.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T19
(15.5)
David Lingmerth
(137.33 pts)
T54
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T17
(66)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T18
(21.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T2
(50)
Bubba Watson
(136.5 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
4
(80)
DNP
 
T32
(36)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T29
(14)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T37
(6.5)
Kevin Chappell
(124.67 pts)
T28
(22)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T32
(36)
DNP
 
DNP
 
2
(66.67)
DNP
 
T54
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T68
(0)
Webb Simpson
(116.83 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T5
(70)
DNP
 
T32
(36)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(17.5)
Brian Davis
(115.33 pts)
T8
(50)
DNP
 
T30
(20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T35
(10)
DNP
 
T8
(33.33)
DNP
 
T42
(5.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T72
(0)
Ryan Palmer
(114 pts)
T34
(16)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
4
(53.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T14
(24)
DNP
 
T33
(5.67)
T5
(35)
David Hearn
(110 pts)
T44
(6)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(58)
T18
(21.33)
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T26
(12)
Patrick Reed
(97.33 pts)
T34
(16)
DNP
 
T18
(32)
DNP
 
DNP
 
5
(46.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T46
(2.67)
DNP
 
81
(0)
DNP
 
Jason Kokrak
(93 pts)
T3
(90)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T18
(21.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
Morgan Hoffmann
(91.67 pts)
T8
(50)
DNP
 
T9
(45)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
69
(0)
DNP
 
T5
(23.33)
DNP
 
Jonas Blixt
(89.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T43
(7)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
2
(66.67)
T11
(26)
DNP
 
DNP
 
77
(0)
Chez Reavie
(87 pts)
T21
(29)
DNP
 
T43
(7)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T27
(15.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T11
(26)
DNP
 
T21
(9.67)
DNP
 
James Driscoll
(82.33 pts)
T8
(50)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T13
(24.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T33
(5.67)
T26
(12)
D.H. Lee
(82.33 pts)
T3
(90)
DNP
 
T51
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T43
(2.33)
DNP
 
Jeff Maggert
(81.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T9
(45)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T66
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T2
(50)
Boo Weekley
(81 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
T27
(15.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(88)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T48
(1)
Jordan Spieth
(76.67 pts)
6
(60)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T63
(0)
DNP
 
T7
(36.67)
DNP
 
T68
(0)
DNP
 
Gary Woodland
(73.67 pts)
T16
(34)
DNP
 
WD
(-5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(21.33)
DNP
 
T16
(22.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T48
(0.67)
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the The Greenbrier Classic

Player AT&T National The Irish Open Travelers Championship BMW PGA Championship U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Classic Lyoness Open Memorial Tournament Nordea Masters Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial BMW International Open HP Byron Nelson Championship The Players Championship
Aaron Baddeley
(-65 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
Lucas Glover
(-41.67 pts)
T57
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
Andrew Svoboda
(-36.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
Johnson Wagner
(-35 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-3.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
Luke List
(-33.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Troy Matteson
(-31.67 pts)
T52
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-5)
Nick Watney
(-31.67 pts)
T61
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
Charlie Beljan
(-31 pts)
WD
(-5)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T43
(2.33)
CUT
(-5)
James Hahn
(-30 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T62
(0)
Bobby Gates
(-30 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T76
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

With Bubba Watson returning this week, he and caddie Ted Scott and getting asked a lot of questions about what happened at the Travelers.  Going into the 16th hole on Sunday with a two shot lead, Watson hit short of the green and into the lake.  The CBS mikes picked up a rather confused Watson, who seemed to hit the shot correctly but it fell way short.  Watson hit another shot, this time sailing the green and he again complained to Scott about the yardage and club selection.  Watson made triple-bogey on the hole and lost the tournament, but many in the media reported the story and Watson has had a lot of questions about it.

Scott had an important part in Watson’s Masters win, but as we saw a couple of years ago with the breakup of the Tiger/Steve Williams partnership, caddie/player partnerships sometimes don’t go the distance.  It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks to see how solid that relationship really is.  2013 has been a lean year for Watson, other than the 4th place finishes beginning the year at Kapalua and at the Travelers.  We all know that when a player has tough times, the first to go are always the teacher followed by the caddie.  Since Watson has no formal teacher you have to think that Scott could be on the hotseat.

Important week for several players this week to get into the British Open.  After Sunday those in the top-20 of the FedEx Cup rankings have a chance for a Scottish vacation of sorts.  The top five of those that aren’t in the British Open get invites.  Here is a list of those that will be looking to be in the top-20 and be one of the five:

5. Billy Horschel

9. Boo Weekley

16. Russell Henley

17. Harris English

18. Charles Howell III

21. Ken Duke

For those that don’t make it this week, the winner of the John Deere Classic also gets an invite.

 

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Greenbrier Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

Only three events have been played and in looking at the winners, one stat stands out.  That is scrambling which makes sense since the greens at Old White are small and if you miss the green it’s tough to get it up and down.  In 2010 Stuart Appleby was 2nd, getting it up and down 14 of the 15 greens missed.  In 2011 Scott Stallings didn’t do well in that stat but runner-up Bill Haas was second getting it up and down 18 of the 22 greens he missed.  In 2012 Ted Potter, Jr. won the event ranking 9th in scrambling, getting it up and down 16 of 20 times.  So look for those that scramble the best.  So look at those that have done well in scrambling this year to do well this week.

 

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Of the 156 players in the field, only 68 have won on the PGA Tour and only 13 have won a major.  So this could be the week to shine, as was the week for Scott Stallings in 2011 and Ted Potter, Jr.  Look for that eager player ready to finally break out and win for the first time.
  • Going on the theme that no wins could be an advantage at the Greenbrier, just look at the 21 players that finished 5th or better.  Of the 21, only 8 of them had won on the PGA Tour.  So this may not be the week for those like Phil Mickelson or a Bubba Watson.
  • The par 4s are some of the best in the country so playing them well is important.  Stuart Appleby was 15 under in his 2010 win, Scott Stalling was 3 under in 2011 while Ted Potter Jr. was 10 under.
  • Is putting important?  For two of the three champions it is as Stuart Appleby ranked 3rd in number of putts while Ted Potter, Jr. was T3rd last year.  As for Scott Stallings he was 3 under

 

Who to watch for at the The Greenbrier Classic

Best Bets:

Jordan Spieth

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Has knocked on the door of victory in Puerto Rico, Tampa Bay, Heritage, Colonial and AT&T National. So don’t be surprised if he knocks the door down this week.

Roberto Castro

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T7

Was T7th last year at Greenbrier and second last week, maybe it’s his time.

Webb Simpson

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T7 T9 CUT

It’s been a long year since his U.S. Open win. Comes into this week with two top-tens at Greenbrier and a T5th in his last start at the Travelers.

Best of the rest:

Chris Stroud

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T18 T9

Is second on tour in scrambling and one of the hottest players thanks to his runner-up at Travelers.

Billy Horschel

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T33 T66

He has won but he would love to have two and this could be a perfect place for that to happen.

Bill Haas

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T33 T2

Big question is if he has the energy after his win at Congressional. Is playing good enough, just a matter of energy.

Bubba Watson

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Lets not forget about him, his game is coming around and he could be winning very soon.

Solid contenders

Jimmy Walker

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T4 T4

A pair of fourth places finishes makes us think he knows the course very well.

Boo Weekley

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T9

This is a very good course for him, a shot maker like him could do well

Russell Henley

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

After such a great start looking to regain that form.

Gary Woodland

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T4 CUT

He is ready to explode and play well, good course for him was T4th in 2011.

Long shots that could come through:

Kevin Chappell

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T17 CUT

Was T17th at Greenbrier last year, have to remember he was runner-up at the Memorial last month.

Charlie Wi

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T3 T60

Was T3rd last year, anything is possible for him.

Scott Piercy

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T12 CUT T16

Has had a pair of top-20 finishes, anything is possible.

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Sorry Phil but you have too much baggage:

Phil Mickelson

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT CUT

Comes to a course very different than what he is best suited for, that is the reasons he has missed two of two cuts. Will be tired from having to explain why he lost the U.S. Open.

Comments

  1. James Gittleman says:

    I’m from mildly to completely surprised that you couldn’t find your way in making Graham DeLeat, at the very least, in your ‘Best of the Rest’. He’s playing better then all the players listed in your ‘Best of the Rest’ and that also includes the players listed as ‘Solid Contenders’. Curious as to your reasoning?

  2. James,
    One of the reasons that I didn’t pick Graham was because I didn’t feel he could sustain another week of playing well. I think that playing well three weeks in a row could be a stretch for him.
    I could be wrong but a combination of that and the course veered me away from him. Of course it wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong on something, just don’t think it’s the week for Graham.

  3. I picked DeLeat in my fantasy team. We’ll see how it goes …

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