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BlogJohn Deere Classic Preview and Picks

John Deere Classic

July 11 – 14, 2013

TPC at Deere Run

Silvis, Ill.

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,268

Purse: $4.6 Million

with $828,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Zach Johnson

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 6 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with one of the top-ten in the field: Louis Oosthuizen.  There are two players ranked 11 to 25, top-25 players in the field: Steve Stricker and Keegan Bradley.  There are three players from 26 to 50 in the rankings, they are Zach Johnson, Kevin Streelman and Ryan Moore.

The field includes 8 of the Top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list.  Those players include Kevin Streelman, Boo Weekley, Keegan Bradley, Steve Stricker, D.A. Points, Harris English, Charles Howell III and Ken Duke.

The field includes 5 past champions: Zach Johnson (2012), Steve Stricker (2011, ’11 & 09), Jonathan Byrd (2007), John Senden (2006) and Sean O’Hair (2005).

The field includes eight players that have won on the PGA Tour this year: Brian Gay (Humana Challenge); Scott Brown (Puerto Rico Open); Kevin Streelman (Tampa Bay Championship); D.A. Points (Shell Houston Open); Derek Ernst (Wells Fargo Championship); Boo Weekley (Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial); Harris English (FedEx St. Jude Classic); Ken Duke (Travelers Championship).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the John Deere Classic field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at John Deere Classic in the last five years or check out our brand new and sortable 8-year glance at the John Deere Classic.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the John Deere Classic

Player Greenbrier Classic French Open AT&T National Irish Open Travelers Championship BMW International U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Classic Lyoness Open Memorial Tournament Nordea Masters Crowne Plaza Colonial BMW PGA Championship
Jonas Blixt
(208.67 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T43
(7)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
2
(66.67)
T11
(13)
DNP
 
Scott Stallings
(163.67 pts)
T23
(27)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T53
(0)
T2
(66.67)
DNP
 
T4
(53.33)
DNP
 
T4
(26.67)
DNP
 
Ken Duke
(144.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T52
(0)
DNP
 
Win
(132)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T16
(22.67)
DNP
 
T31
(6.33)
DNP
 
Brian Davis
(136 pts)
T30
(20)
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
T30
(20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T35
(10)
DNP
 
T8
(33.33)
DNP
 
T42
(2.67)
DNP
 
Matt Jones
(130 pts)
T2
(100)
DNP
 
T64
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T6
(40)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
D.H. Lee
(126.67 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP
 
T3
(90)
DNP
 
T51
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-1.67)
DNP
 
Roberto Castro
(122 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
2
(100)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(21.33)
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
DNP
 
T46
(1.33)
DNP
 
Harris English
(107.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T34
(16)
DNP
 
T43
(7)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(88)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Morgan Hoffmann
(102 pts)
T23
(27)
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
T9
(45)
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
69
(0)
DNP
 
Charley Hoffman
(94.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T28
(22)
DNP
 
T7
(55)
DNP
 
T45
(6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T63
(0)
DNP
 
T18
(10.67)
DNP
 
Jordan Spieth
(92 pts)
T23
(27)
DNP
 
6
(60)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T63
(0)
DNP
 
T7
(18.33)
DNP
 
Pat Perez
(91.67 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP
 
76
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(33.33)
DNP
 
WD
(-1.67)
DNP
 
Patrick Reed
(86 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T34
(16)
DNP
 
T18
(32)
DNP
 
DNP
 
5
(46.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T46
(1.33)
DNP
 
Jimmy Walker
(83.33 pts)
T2
(100)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
73
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
John Rollins
(82.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T34
(16)
DNP
 
T79
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
6
(40)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T4
(26.67)
DNP
 
Steven Bowditch
(80 pts)
T2
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Camilo Villegas
(74.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T16
(34)
DNP
 
T51
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T10
(26.67)
DNP
 
T41
(6)
DNP
 
T26
(8)
DNP
 
Gary Woodland
(73 pts)
T62
(0)
DNP
 
T16
(34)
DNP
 
WD
(-5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(21.33)
DNP
 
T16
(22.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
John Huh
(72.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T28
(22)
DNP
 
T79
(0)
DNP
 
T17
(44)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T11
(13)
DNP
 
Andres Romero
(72 pts)
T41
(9)
DNP
 
T13
(37)
DNP
 
T24
(26)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
David Hearn
(72 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T44
(6)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(38.67)
T18
(21.33)
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
K.J. Choi
(67.33 pts)
T23
(27)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T43
(7)
DNP
 
T32
(24)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Ted Potter, Jr.
(66.67 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP
 
T34
(16)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T18
(10.67)
DNP
 
J.J. Henry
(66.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T5
(70)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T51
(0)
DNP
 
T29
(14)
DNP
 
T42
(2.67)
DNP
 
Steve Stricker
(66.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(66.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the John Deere Classic

Player Greenbrier Classic French Open AT&T National Irish Open Travelers Championship BMW International U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Classic Lyoness Open Memorial Tournament Nordea Masters Crowne Plaza Colonial BMW PGA Championship
Aaron Baddeley
(-60 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Casey Wittenberg
(-50 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T72
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Justin Bolli
(-46.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Andrew Svoboda
(-40 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Lucas Glover
(-40 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Colt Knost
(-40 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Greg Chalmers
(-36.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T65
(0)
DNP
 
Will Claxton
(-36.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Bobby Gates
(-36.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T76
(0)
DNP
 
Charlie Beljan
(-35 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
WD
(-5)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Of course each week is important, but for 21 of the 156 playing in the John Deere, this will be there final prep before the British Open.  One of the reasons this is possible is because the folks that run the John Deere will have a waiting 767 on Sunday evening that will whisk the players directly to Edinburgh Airport in Scotland, about 20 miles from Muirfield.  This has been an on going “perk” for the last half a dozen years.  Matter of fact it’s so popular that the Canadian Open, played the week after the British has a plane that will whisk players from Scotland to Toronto, Canada on Sunday night after the completion of plane.

Now the British Open is one of those plums in which most players would love to play in it.  But for the other 135 in the John Deere field, they aren’t playing at Muirfield, unless they win at the John Deere.  That gets them a place on the charter and the last minute invite to play the British.  The last person to take advantage of that last minute invite?  Jonathan Byrd in 2007.  That brings up an interesting story on how you should always be prepared, Byrd was done on himself for missing four consecutive cuts before the Deere so he didn’t bring his passport.  So of course Byrd wins and couldn’t fly on the charter because he had to go home to Georgia to pick up the passport.  Instead of arriving in Scotland on Monday morning it took him most of Monday and Tuesday to finally make it to Carnoustie. Moral of the story, always pack your passport you never know when your going to need it.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the John Deere Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

Hitting lots of greens.  Since the course was first used in 2000, the winners have finished T5th (Michael Clark II), 4th (David Goosett), 1st (J.P. Hayes), T5th (Vijay Singh), T23rd (Mark Hensby), T2nd (Sean O’Hair) and T2nd (John Senden) in greens hit showing that if you hit a lot of greens, you will do well.  Yes Jonathan Byrd finished T25th in 2007 and Kenny Perry finished T22nd in 2008, Steve Stricker was T14th in 2009, T11th in 2010, T33rd in 2011 and Zach Johnson was T26th last year.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Even though the fairways aren’t that demanding, for J.P. Hayes (2002),Mark Hensby (2004) and Sean O’Hair (2005) this has proven to help in there victories.  For the rest of the champions since 1997 they all are between 15th and 49th.  In 2010 Stricker was T18th, hitting 41 of the 56 fairways, while in 2011 he was T58th hitting just 36 of 56 fairways while Zach Johnson was T31st with 41 of 56.

Being in the lead after the third round doesn’t guarantee a victory, especially at the John Deere.  Since 1995 only seven players, David Toms in 1997, David Gossett in 2001, J.P. Hayes in 2002,  John Senden in 2006 , Kenny Perry in 2009, Steve Stricker in 2010 and 2011.  Last year Zach Johnson was T3rd going into the final round.

The myth of the John Deere was always think an underdog or new player that has never won before will win the Deere.  In looking at the winners since the event moved to the TPC course in 2000 between then and 2007 only one true favorite Vijay Singh in 2003 was victorious.  But since the charter went into effect you have marquee names like Kenny Perry in 2008, Steve Stricker in 2009, ’10 & ’11 along with Zach Johnson winning last year.  So you can see how perks like a special charter can really change the outlook of a tournament.

The tournament has the overall reputation of first time winners.  Since 1973, 18 rookie winners including six of the last nine (J.L. Lewis in 1999, Michael Clark in 2000, David Gossett in 2001, Mark Hensby in 2004, Sean O’Hair and John Senden in 2006) have won the John Deere so even though the event has had proven champions win the last five years you never know.

One last important element in winning this week will be making lot’s of birdies.  The TPC Deere Run gave up 1,676 birdies in 2007, 1,714 in 2008 and in 2009 along with 1,810 in 2010, 1,915 in 2011 (most of any course that year) and 1,894 last year (again the most on the PGA Tour in 2012).  So look for those that have a high birdie average for the year.

Who to watch for at the John Deere Classic

Best Bets:

Steve Stricker

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T5 Win Win Win T51 T46 T4 CUT

This has become his little annuity the last four years. Look for that trend to continue, and Stricker being in contention on Sunday afternoon.

Kyle Stanley

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T19 2 T34

He may of missed the last two cuts but look for him to play well on a course he almost won on in 2011.

Keegan Bradley

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Still looking to get on track, this is a good course for him.

Best of the rest:

Zach Johnson

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
Win T3 T21 T2 T69 CUT T33 T36 T20 CUT CUT

Don’t disregard him because he is defending, if Steve Stricker could do it three straight years Johnson can do two.

Jordan Spieth

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T58

May of had a bad Sunday at the Greenbrier but look for him to bounce back this week.

Ryan Moore

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T8 T34 T74 T27

Played well last year, course is good for him and he could surprise a lot this week.

Kevin Streelman

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T8 CUT 8

Yes he has missed his last four cuts, but before then was in the top-six for three straight weeks. Has finished 8th twice in the last four years so maybe the course will get him back on track.

Solid contenders

Charles Howell III

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T5 T39 T23 T22 T25

Yes he has missed his last two cuts but you never know when he is going to play well, could be this week at the Deere.

Nick Watney

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T13 CUT CUT CUT T66

Still having a rough year but he is too good of a player not to snap out of it.

Matt Jones

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT CUT 5 T5 CUT

Was T2nd last week and finished 5th at Deere in 2010 and ’09.

Louis Oosthuizen

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT

Looking to get ready for the British, feel he will be better than his missed cut last year.

Long shots that could come through:

D.H. Lee

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Has played great the last two weeks finishing T9th at Greenbrier and T3rd at AT&T.

Luke Guthrie

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T5

Could repeat his performance of last year when he finished T5th.

Steven Bowditch

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T38

Was second last week and could carry that over to this week.

Comments

  1. James Gittleman says:

    Would you have any thoughts on the Open Championships? I’m looking at Stenson (liked him all year) but he’s flawed due to his putting. Sure can run out a straight on GIR! Currently 33/1 but if he wins the Aberdeen this week his odds will drop a bit. Noone who has won the the Scottish event has ever won the Open. (Not sure of that fact but I believe it to be the case). Additionally I like (a little) Branden Grace (125/1). I believe I like him for the odds more then for his play this year. Looking down at the top dozen favs next week Scott (18/1) seems the most ready.

    Any ideas, it seems all the favs have flaws that aren’t representative of most of there odds!

  2. James,
    Just arrived at Muirfield yesterday afternoon. It’s the first time I can remember wearing shorts in consecutive days, the weather is great, the course looks great and the forecast is for great weather all week.
    One thing that you should realize about Muirfield, only great players win here. In the 15 past British Open’s at Muirfield they have had 13 different champions and everyone of them is in the World Golf Hall of Fame except for Alf Perry.
    Even the runner-ups, 18 different ones ten of them are winners of major championships.
    So you get my drift, only great players win a Muirfield.
    So that means guys like Tiger, Phil Ernie, Adam Scott, those with a pedigree of doing well in majors are the likely candidates. As for you choice of Stenson, you said it yourself he is not a good putter just look at his record in the majors
    http://www.golfstats.com/search/?box=1121&tour=Majors&player=Henrik+Stenson&submit=go
    In 28 starts he has four, top-4s including a pair of 3rd place finishes in the British Open. Still look at his stats, putting is terrible and he has to be hitting the ball perfectly to get close.
    As for your next pick of Branden Grace, he may play well. Having a good run of it at the Scottish Open, just two back going into the final round so you know that he is playing well. I fear that if he gets hot today and wins, he won’t have anything left for the British.

    Couple of guys I will be looking at this week, with the weather being perfect is Graeme McDowell, yes a Jeckel and Hyde last two months, in 8 starts he has won three times and missed the cut the other five times. Also like Lee Westwood, don’t know why just a feeling. Also another feeling that people made fun of me at the U.S. Open for but he finished in the top-ten is Japanese Hideki Matsuyama. I just visited a bookie office here in Scotland and they gave me 225 to one odds. Not bad.

    Will probably post my preview early in America tomorrow.

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