BlogRBC Canadian Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Without a doubt Phil Mickelson’s win at the British Open is the moment of the year.  With a final round 66 and birdies on four of the final six holes, Mickelson won by three shots and now has three of the four major championships.  A couple of thoughts on Phil’s victory, first it continues the trend of World Golf Hall of Famers winning.  This is the ninth Open Championship held at Muirfield since World War II.

With Mickelson winning he continues the streak of all nine champions being in the World Golf Hall of Fame.

• 1948 – Henry Cotton
• 1959 – Gary Player
• 1966 – Jack Nicklaus
• 1972 – Lee Trevino
• 1980 – Tom Watson
• 1987 – Nick Faldo
• 1992 – Nick Faldo
• 2002 – Ernie Els
• 2013 – Phil Mickelson

Mickelson now joins this list of players that have won three of the four majors:

• Phil Michelson – missing major, U.S. Open
• Walter Hagen – missing major, Masters
• Tom Watson = missing major, PGA Championship
• Arnold Palmer – missing major, PGA Championship
• Sam Snead – missing major, U.S. Open
• Lee Trevino – missing major, Masters
• Byron Nelson – missing major, British Open
• Ray Floyd – missing major, British Open
• James Barnes – missing major, Masters
• Tommy Armour – missing major, Masters

Making this win so remarkable was the fact that up until his runner-up finish at St. Georges in 2011, nobody really thought that Mickelson could win the British Open.  Phil said his problem was putting on links greens, frankly he is not that good of a wind and poor weather player.  Going into this week in 19 previous starts he only had two top-tens, in 2004 at Royal Troon he finished 3rd and the runner-up finish in 2011.  The rest were a bunch of finishes between T11th and missing four cuts.  Last year in the rain Phil missed the cut at Lytham.  Hard to believe but it took Phil 20 starts to finally win, a record at not only the British Open but in three of the four majors.  The all-time leader of most starts before winning the U.S. Open still falls in Tom Kite, who had 21 starts before his 1992 victory at Pebble.

I can’t picture any moment better than Mickelson’s birdie putt at 18, the moment of his caddy Bones breaking into tears and the embrace of Phil with Amy and the kids.  Unfortunately that moment is not enough to give him Player of the Year honors.  It’s his third win along with Phoenix and the Scottish Open, but if Adam Scott, Tiger Woods or Justin Rose win the PGA that would be a better season.  Even if Tiger doesn’t win the PGA, with four victories this year if he could win a FedEx Cup playoff event and even with the season FedEx Cup title, that would put him on top ahead of Mickelson.

As great of a moment it must of been for Mickelson, the opposite can be said for Lee Westwood.  Things were in motion for him to finally win a major championship after 19 British starts and 62 major starts.  While Mickelson will be looking to complete the grand slam next year at Pinehurst at 44 years old, Westwood is 40 and still looking for that one major.  Until he does it he will be dodge with the reputation along with Colin Montgomerie and Sergio Garcia of the best player not to win a major.

One last thought about destiny and Mickelson, isn’t it funny that next year’s U.S. Open goes back to Pinehurst.  That was the scene of Mickelson almost winning his first major championship only to have Payne Stewart hole a 15 footer on the 72nd hole for the one shot victory.  Stewart and Mickelson had a very poignant moment in which Stewart put his arms around Mickelson’s head and said that Phil’s moment would come and that he was going to be a father soon.  The next day Phil’s first child was born along with the quest to win the U.S. Open.  It has been a long 14 years since Pinehurst with Phil being runner-up a record six times in that span.  So with Phil getting on in age and the U.S. Open returning to Pinehurst next year, it sets up for some serious drama.  If Phil could complete the grand slam quest at Pinehurst it could be the biggest moment in golf, surpassing Francis Ouiment’s 1913 U.S. Open victory.

Lot’s will be written about all of this in the coming 10 months but first we have to think about the RBC Canadian Open.  Just like with the John Deere, the folks of the Canadian Open chartered that 767 and took 30 of those that played in the British Open off to Canada for that event.  Some of the key players on that jet were Ernie Els, Hunter Mahan, Matt Kuchar, Graeme McDowell and Luke Donald.

This year’s Canadian Open returns to Glen Abbey, a public course just outside of Toronto, for the 26th time and despite being wedge between the British Open and the WGC-Bridgestone, still holds a lot of prestige. The course is a gem and in 2004 it was the fourth hardest on the PGA Tour that year with a 72.731 scoring average.  The last time it was played in Glen Abbey in 2009 it played to a 70.892 scoring average and was the 40th hardest course that year, so low numbers can be shot at this course.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Canadian Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Those that have played the course before will have a slight edge but the key to the course will be for those to manage the par 4s.  With the 16th playing as a par 4 in 2004 instead of a par 5, it was the 11th toughest hole on the PGA Tour in 2004.  In 2009 as a par 5 it was the 896th rank hole that year on the PGA Tour (out of 918) showing how much easier it is as a par 5.  The 14th hole was the 10th hardest hole on the PGA Tour in 2004 and the 48th hardest in 2009 as it played to a 4.276 average. Both holes will be important for the winner to master.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Over the years Glen Abbey got a reputation as a long hitters kind of course, but if you look at all of the champions since 1990 all but Greg Norman, Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh were short hitters.  Another thing, most of the winners at Glen Abbey fade the ball, that makes sense since five of the six holes that bend go to the right, a Jack Nicklaus design trait.
• Greens are contoured and well bunkered which means that those that scramble will do very well.</li>
• Putting seems to be the key to success at Glen Abbey.  Those that have putted well tend to get the nod over players that hit lots of greens.  So a good putter and scrambler will prevail this week.
• With the last hole being a par 5, it has produced some wild finishes over the years. Final hole birdies were made by Greg Norman in 1992 to get into a playoff, and by David Frost (’93) and Nick Price (’94) to win by one.  ’98 was the most bizarre finish with Andrade winning the playoff with a par, while in  ’99 Hal Sutton birdied the hole three times and made par it in the final round.  2000 will always be tops on the highlight reel for Tiger Woods hitting the prettiest shot from a fairway bunker over the lake to made birdie and nip Grath Waite by a shot while in 2004 Vijay Singh made a birdie, Mike Weir didn’t which forced a playoff which Singh won.  In 2008 Chez Reavie played the hole in three under, including a birdie in the final round, an accomplishment that most of the winners achieve in the final round.
• Nathan Green was a first time winner the last time the Canadian Open was held at Glen Abbey.  Chez Reavie was also a first time PGA Tour winner in 2008, the last time a first-time winner prevailed at the Canadian Open was in 2002 and previous to that was in 1996 when Dudley Hart won and before that it was in 1981 when Peter Oosterhuis won.  So the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey has favored non-winners, a trend that could continue this year.
• Now we tend to forget that this is the national open of Canada but it’s been a while since a Canadian has one it, you have to go back to 1954 when Pat Fletcher won it.  Mike Weir came close to winning in 2004, only to give up a lead on the final holes and then lose a playoff to Vijay Singh.  Other than that it’s been a bit bare as Dave Barr finished T4th in 1988, while David Morland IV finished T5th in 2001.  There will be 16 Canadians in the field with Mike Weir being the sentimental favorite.  The some of the other Canadians in the field are: Stephen Ames, Graham DeLaet and David Hearn. Again the big question will be if a Canadian can come to the fro-front this year, 2004 did bring a lot of excitment.