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BlogReno-Tahoe Open Preview and Picks

Reno-Tahoe Open

August 1 – 4, 2013

Montreux G. & C.C.

Reno, Nev.

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,472

Purse: $3 million

with $540,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
J.J. Henry

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

This may sound a bit misleading since the he field only has two players in the top-100 of the World Ranking, #75 Padraig Harrington and #88 Marcus Fraser.  That’s because most of the top players are at the Bridgestone.

The highest ranked player on this year’s PGA Tour money list that is in the Reno field is #56 Josh Teater.  The next highest one is #69 Brian Stuard.

The field includes seven past champions: J.J. Henry (2012); Parker McLachlin (2008); Steve Flesch (2007); Will MacKenzie (2006); Vaughn Taylor (2004, 2005); Chris Riley (2002); Scott Verplank (2000)

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Reno-Tahoe Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at Reno-Tahoe Open in the last five years or check out our brand new and sortable 8-year glance at the Reno-Tahoe Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Reno-Tahoe Open

Player Canadian Open British Open Sanderson Farms John Deere Classic Scottish Open Greenbrier French Open AT&T National Irish Open Travelers Championship BMW International U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Classic
Jason Bohn
(174.33 pts)
T2
(100)
DNP
 
T9
(45)
T22
(28)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T44
(4)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(10.67)
Nicholas Thompson
(173 pts)
T28
(22)
DNP
 
4
(80)
T12
(38)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T28
(14.67)
DNP
 
T24
(17.33)
DNP
 
T56
(0)
T27
(7.67)
Chad Campbell
(152.67 pts)
T16
(34)
DNP
 
T7
(55)
T15
(35)
DNP
 
T41
(6)
DNP
 
T16
(22.67)
DNP
 
T70
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T75
(0)
Steven Bowditch
(127.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T17
(33)
T12
(38)
DNP
 
T2
(66.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
William McGirt
(117.33 pts)
T2
(100)
DNP
 
T26
(24)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
69
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T30
(13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Woody Austin
(112 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
Win
(132)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Jim Herman
(110.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T9
(45)
T10
(40)
DNP
 
T30
(13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(21.33)
DNP
 
T67
(0)
T47
(1)
J.J. Henry
(107.33 pts)
T31
(19)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(55)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T5
(46.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T51
(0)
Morgan Hoffmann
(106.33 pts)
T52
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(35)
DNP
 
T23
(18)
DNP
 
T8
(33.33)
DNP
 
T9
(30)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
Rory Sabbatini
(92.67 pts)
T12
(38)
DNP
 
T17
(33)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T9
(30)
DNP
 
WD
(-3.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
T7
(18.33)
Stuart Appleby
(89.33 pts)
T31
(19)
DNP
 
T17
(33)
T33
(17)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T9
(30)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T39
(3.67)
Chez Reavie
(85.67 pts)
T31
(19)
DNP
 
T62
(0)
T15
(35)
DNP
 
T62
(0)
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
DNP
 
T43
(4.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T27
(7.67)
Andres Romero
(83 pts)
T21
(29)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T44
(6)
DNP
 
T41
(6)
DNP
 
T13
(24.67)
DNP
 
T24
(17.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Ross Fisher
(73.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T24
(26)
DNP
 
T34
(10.67)
DNP
 
T22
(18.67)
DNP
 
T18
(21.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Peter Uihlein
(72 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T10
(40)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T32
(12)
DNP
 
T10
(26.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Greg Owen
(63.33 pts)
T12
(38)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T61
(0)
DNP
 
T23
(18)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T24
(17.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Kevin Sutherland
(63.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T46
(4)
T12
(38)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(21.33)
DNP
 
T67
(0)
T71
(0)
Brendon Todd
(61.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T14
(36)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T13
(24.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(10.67)
Bill Lunde
(57 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(55)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T17
(22)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
James Driscoll
(55.67 pts)
T21
(29)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T54
(0)
DNP
 
T8
(33.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Bryce Molder
(55 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T27
(23)
DNP
 
T17
(22)
DNP
 
T61
(0)
DNP
 
T30
(13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Mark Wilson
(54 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T63
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(10.67)
Steve LeBrun
(53 pts)
72
(0)
DNP
 
T26
(24)
T15
(35)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T44
(4)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Russell Knox
(51 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T17
(33)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T13
(24.67)
DNP
 
T45
(3.33)
74
(0)
Fabian Gomez
(48.33 pts)
T16
(34)
DNP
 
T35
(15)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T77
(0)
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Reno-Tahoe Open

Player Canadian Open British Open Sanderson Farms John Deere Classic Scottish Open Greenbrier French Open AT&T National Irish Open Travelers Championship BMW International U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Classic
Justin Bolli
(-53.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Donald Constable
(-46.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Casey Wittenberg
(-43.33 pts)
T52
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T72
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
Colt Knost
(-43.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
76
(0)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Robert Karlsson
(-43 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
71
(0)
T39
(3.67)
Jin Park
(-40 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T65
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Bobby Gates
(-38.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T65
(0)
WD
(-5)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Paul Haley II
(-38.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T35
(5)
Thomas Aiken
(-36.67 pts)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T59
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Si Woo Kim
(-36.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Many will read this and wonder on the viability of this event.  No top players in the field, an event that takes second stage to the Bridgestone.  In a way it’s a shame.  This was Finchem’s grand idea back in 1999 to keep the bottom-feeders off his back about limited field event.  Unfortunely it’s been a struggle, this event has always had sponsor problems and over the years the tour has sunk some cash to keep it alive.

One of the reasons they have kept it alive, those that play in it love it.  The weather is great, the course is great with players raving about it. Now in it’s 15th year, the field for this year’s Reno-Tahoe is the best it’s ever been with former major champions such as Davis Love III, Padraig Harrington, David Toms, David Duval, Mike Weir, Trevor Immelman, Lee Janzen, Rich Beem, Shaun Micheel, Ben Curtis and Chad Campbell playing.  If that wasn’t enough some other marquee players are in the field, guys like Aaron Baddeley, Camilo Villegas, Stuart Appleby, Robert Allenby, Chris Di- Marco, Jesper Parnevik, Woody Austin, Charlie Wi, Ben Crane, Rory Sabbatini, Pat Perez, Billy Mayfair are in Reno in what is there best field ever.

So what looks like nothing is really something, especially since the event has gone to the Modified Stableford system which is a change of pace for a PGA Tour event.  Honestly this event has gotten me more excited than a dozen other events that have big time sponsorship but struggle to get a good field and are played the same way, 72 hole stroke play.

I know because of the format I will be watching on Sunday, something of a rarity for me.

 

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Reno-Tahoe Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Aggressive play, that’s the name of the game this week at the Reno-Tahoe.  This will be the 2nd year that the Reno-Tahoe has gone over to this scoring system making it one of the most distinctive events on the PGA Tour.  Along with the Accenture Match play, the two are the only tournaments on tour that aren’t stroke play events.  The modified version of the Stableford method is one that makes for a lot of excitement as points are awarded for low scoring and points taken away for poor scoring.  Nothing is given for par, with 2 points given for a birde, 5 points given for a eagle and for the rare double-eagle, 8 points.  For those that make a bogey they have to subtract 1 point and for a double bogey or worst 3 points are deducted.  So instead of the lowest number of strokes winning the tournament like the rest of the tour stops, the player making the most points wins.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Putting is always a key, you can’t make a lot of birdies without some decent putting.
  • Patience is a virtue, Weather in August in the high country of Lake Tahoe and Reno can be very unstable especially in the afternoon.  Thunder is to be expected and comes more time than the tournament would like.
  • Judgement of yardage is key, in a way it’s always a challenge to hit the right club.  A 200 yard shot to the ninth green at Montreux is a bit of an adventure compared to a 200 yard shot at Torrey Pines.  With the attitude being so high a 200 yard shot could be an 8-iron at Montreux while the same shot at Torrey Pines could be a six or five iron.
  • Pick your holes to gamble on, there are several holes were par is the score you should look for and if a player tries to force the issue it could lead very easily to a double bogey.
  • Never give up, you never know when a holed fairway shot could lead to an birdie and 2 points.  A player could be ten points down with nine holes left to play and can make up the difference very quickly.
  • The winner will be the player that hit’s it a ton, makes lot’s of eagles and birdies and finds away to not make worst than a double on any hole.
  • Interesting to look at the winners of the International, a tournament that was played between 1986 and 2006 and used the same Stableford system.  Some of the marquee names of winners of the International were Phil Mickelson (twice), Greg Norman, David Toms, Jose Maria Olazabal, Brad Faxon, Retief Goosen, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els and Davis Love III (twice).  So look for a person that has a name for himself and who knows, maybe a David Toms or a Davis Love III can claim the modified double by winning this week.

Who to watch for at the Reno-Tahoe Open

Best Bets:

Mark Wilson

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T21 T22 T8 CUT CUT T5 CUT

Was T6th last week in Canada, has played well at Montreux before, he will get you a good price and will contend.

Peter Ulhlein

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Returning from a successful last couple of months playing on the European Tour. Watch him, he could easily climb up the leaderboard without you noticing.

Chad Campbell

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T15 T44

Has the game to make a lot of birdies and make a run under this system.

Best of the rest:

Andres Romero

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
3 CUT

He makes lot’s of birdies which puts him onto our radar scope.

David Toms

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Hasn’t been on our radar screens for a while, but remember he did win at the International so he likes the modified stableford system. Also was runner-up in this events first year.

Davis Love III

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Another winner of the International, we haven’t heard much of him the last couple of years but he still has the game to contend.

Padraig Harrington

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T19

An old workhorse who loves playing this event and in past years tried to bypass Bridgestone to play at Reno-Tahoe. We will see if he can recover his game for the week.

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Solid contenders

Gary Woodland

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

2013 has been a bit of a struggle but he has the game to do well this week.

Steven Bowditch

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT CUT 76

Played well a couple of weeks ago including a 2nd at Greenbrier, could he find that magic this week?

Stuart Appleby

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T16 T18

Watch him this week, his game has shown signs of life and he has done well here in past years.

Ross Fisher

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Watch him, has had some good finishes in 2013 and this could be a great spot for him.

Long shots that could come through:

Kevin Stadler

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
11 CUT T5 T42 T65 T2 T41

Always on the cusp of things, he makes lot’s of birdies and finished 11th here last year.

Bryce Molder

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
69 T10 CUT T37 T55 3

Game has come around the last month or so, playing for the first time in this event.

Josh Teater

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
7 T10 54

Was 7th in this event last year, has had two top-tens this year so he can contend.

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