BlogWGC-Bridgestone Invitational Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

It will be an interesting week for Tiger Woods.  Pressure is mounting for him to win, not only this week but the last major of the year.  He has been more than confident going into the first three majors and has had poor final rounds only to say that he played well.  This week is a weird week, before 2011 he owned this event, winning seven times and finishing in the top-four ever year from 1999 through his win in 2009.  Things changed, the following year he finished T8th followed by a T37th finish in 2011 and then a dismal 78th place finish last year.

So the question is can he pull it off, thus adding more pressure to his PGA Championship performance.

Many will be watching Phil Mickelson who returns after his British Open win.  He joins the other major winners Justin Rose and Adam Scott, who will all be looking to get rid of the stigma of being a major champion winner that has gone flat with their game.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the WGC-bridgestone-invitational:

Key stat for the winner:

Firestone is one of the most respected courses on the PGA Tour.  The par-70 layout plays to over 7,400 yards and if there is a key to the course its the long par 3s and par 4s.  Three of the par 3s play over 200 yards while eleven of the twelve par 4s play over 400 yards and  eight play over 440 yards.  You have to be accurate with your drives, as the fairways are very well bunkered and bordered with high rough.  Shots into the greeens, usually with long irons, have to be precise and if the players do get a break its in the greens, they are pretty flat with very little undulations.  The list of champions is pretty impressive but underdogs have won the event.  Its also interesting to note that since 1995 all of the winners (except for Darren Clarke in 2003 and Vijay Singh 2008) have won a tournament five months prior to their Firestone victory.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Since the course will play at more than 7,400 yards, the “experts” will say bombers hold an advantage. Still as you will see length is not the only strength you need to play well at Firestone.  Average hitters like Jim Furyk, David Toms and Stewart Cink have done well at Firestone, so does long hitters have an advantage, yes because Tiger seems to win a lot but don’t discount the shorter hitter.
• Accuracy will rule this week. The fairways are very narrow and the rough has always played a factor.    Of the 20 players that have finished in the top-five in the tournaments first three years, 15 of them have finished in the top-20 of the driving accuracy category.  Things changed drastically in 2007 as only five players out of the top 21 finished in the top-ten of the driving distance category.  In 2008 of the players in the top-19, only four were in the top-ten. The same in 2009 as of those in the top-15 the best rank in driving accuracy is T10th.  In 2010 only two players out of the top 22 finished in the top-ten of fairways hit.  Things got better in 2011 as six of the top-six were in the top-15 while in 2012 ten of the top-15 were in the top-20   So if fairways get dry this week, look for accuracy to again not being the King this week.
• The only problem is that the course will not be dry.  Lot’s of rain have dropped in the last month and a thundery Thursday and Saturday making the course play soft, despite winds and clear skies on Friday and Sunday.
• Now in the years that Woods has won, hitting greens was the key to victory, but in the two years that Darren Clarke and Stewart Cink won, putting was the key.  In 2009 greens hit was the key to victory for Tiger as he ranked T2nd in that stat, while in 2010 Hunter Mahan was T8th in greens hit and T4th in number of putts.  In 2011 Adam Scott was T9th in greens hit and T4th in putting while in 2012 Keegan Bradley was T11th in greens hit and T2nd in putting  So which one is the favorite?  I have to say that the ball striker will always win.
• Does a non-marquee guy have a chance this week?  Could Kiradech Aphibamrat, RIchard Sterne orJonas Bilxt win?  Not a chance, look for either one of the usual suspects or someone like a Lee Westwood who really wants to do well in a big events.  As for an underdog, no chance as underdogs have not fared well at Firestone.