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BlogDeutsche Bank Championship Preview and Picks

Deutsche Bank Championship

August 30 – September 2, 2013

TPC of Boston

Norton, Mass.

Par: 71 / Yardage:

Purse: $8 Million

with $1.44 Million to the winner

Defending Champion:
Rory McIlroy

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 40 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with all top-ten in the field: The ones not in the field are #21 Louis Oosthuizen (hurt), #28 Hideki Matsuyama, #29 Matteo Manassero, #32 Peter Hanson, #31 Branden Grace, #36 Richard Sterne, #41 Jamie Donaldson, #43 Francesco Molinari, #44 Thorbjorn Olesen and #47 Nicolas Colsaerts (all non-PGA Tour members).

The field includes all Top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list:  

The field includes 7 of the 9 past champions: Rory McIlroy (2012), Webb Simpson (2011), Charley Hoffman (2010), Steve Stricker (2009), Phil Mickelson (2007), Tiger Woods (2006) and Adam Scott (2003).

The field includes 26 players that have won on the PGA Tour this year: Dustin Johnson (Hyundai Tournament of Champions), Russell Henley (Sony Open), Brian Gay (Humana Challenge), Phil Mickelson (WM Phoenix Open, British Open), Tiger Woods (Farmers Insurance, WGC Cadillac, Arnold Palmer Invitational, Players Championship & WGC-Bridgestone), Brandt Snedeker (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, RBC Canadian Open), John Merrick (Northern Trust Open), Matt Kuchar (WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship, the Memorial Tournament), Michael Thompson (Honda Classic), Kevin Streelman (Tampa Bay), D.A. Points (Shell Houston), Martin Laird (Valero Texas), Adam Scott (Masters & Barclays), Graeme McDowell (RBC Heritage), Billy Horschel (Zurich Classic), Sang-Moon Bae (HP Byron Nelson Championship), Derek Ernst (Wells Fargo Championship), Boo Weekley (Crowne Plaza Colonial), Harris English (FedEx St. Jude), Justin Rose (U.S. Open). Ken Duke (Travelers), Bill Haas (AT&T National), Jonas Bilxt (Greenbrier), Gary Woodland (Reno-Tahoe), Jason Dufner (PGA Championship) and Patrick Reed (Wyndham).The only winner of the year not in the field is Woody Austin (Sanderson Farms) who finished 137 in the FedEx rankings)

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Deutsche Bank field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Deutsche Bank  in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Deutsche Bank .

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Deutsche Bank Championship

Player Barclays Classic Wyndham PGA Championship WGC-Bridgestone Reno-Tahoe Open Canadian Open British Open Sanderson Farms Scottish Open John Deere French Open Greenbrier Classic AT&T National
Adam Scott
(494 pts)
Win
(198)
DNP
 
T5
(140)
T14
(36)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T3
(120)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T57
(0)
Henrik Stenson
(453.83 pts)
T43
(10.5)
DNP
 
3
(180)
T2
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
2
(133.33)
DNP
 
T3
(30)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jason Dufner
(395.5 pts)
T37
(19.5)
DNP
 
Win
(264)
T4
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T26
(32)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Tiger Woods
(382 pts)
T2
(150)
DNP
 
T40
(20)
Win
(132)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T6
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Zach Johnson
(363.33 pts)
DNP
 
T5
(70)
T8
(100)
T4
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T6
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T2
(33.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jim Furyk
(353.67 pts)
T6
(90)
DNP
 
2
(200)
T9
(45)
DNP
 
T9
(30)
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T44
(2)
Phil Mickelson
(335.67 pts)
T6
(90)
DNP
 
T72
(0)
T21
(29)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(176)
DNP
 
Win
(44)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Gary Woodland
(250 pts)
T2
(150)
DNP
 
74
(0)
DNP
 
Win
(88)
T61
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T48
(0.67)
DNP
 
T62
(0)
T16
(11.33)
Matt Kuchar
(239.17 pts)
T19
(46.5)
DNP
 
T22
(56)
T27
(23)
DNP
 
T2
(66.67)
T15
(46.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T49
(0.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Keegan Bradley
(234.17 pts)
T33
(25.5)
DNP
 
T19
(62)
T2
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(46.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T61
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jonas Blixt
(229.33 pts)
T58
(0)
DNP
 
4
(160)
T59
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T26
(32)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Win
(44)
CUT
(-3.33)
Bill Haas
(218.17 pts)
T25
(37.5)
T20
(30)
T25
(50)
T7
(55)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T9
(15)
Win
(44)
Jordan Spieth
(207.5 pts)
T19
(46.5)
2
(100)
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T44
(8)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(44)
DNP
 
T23
(9)
6
(20)
Justin Rose
(203.67 pts)
T2
(150)
DNP
 
T33
(34)
T17
(33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Lee Westwood
(201.5 pts)
T25
(37.5)
DNP
 
T33
(34)
T40
(10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T3
(120)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Rory Sabbatini
(199.5 pts)
T13
(55.5)
T8
(50)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(36.67)
T12
(25.33)
DNP
 
T17
(22)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T9
(15)
WD
(-1.67)
Dustin Johnson
(192.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
T8
(100)
T33
(17)
DNP
 
T2
(66.67)
T32
(24)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Webb Simpson
(180.5 pts)
T15
(52.5)
T11
(39)
T25
(50)
T14
(36)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T64
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T41
(3)
DNP
 
Roberto Castro
(173.5 pts)
T25
(37.5)
CUT
(-10)
T12
(76)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T6
(40)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T68
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
2
(33.33)
Jason Day
(171.17 pts)
T25
(37.5)
DNP
 
T8
(100)
T53
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T32
(24)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(9.67)
Patrick Reed
(167.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
Win
(132)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T9
(30)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(18.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T34
(5.33)
Matt Jones
(167.17 pts)
T33
(25.5)
T5
(70)
T40
(20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(18.33)
DNP
 
T2
(33.33)
T64
(0)
Rory McIlroy
(156.17 pts)
T19
(46.5)
DNP
 
T8
(100)
T27
(23)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Rickie Fowler
(154.83 pts)
T9
(67.5)
DNP
 
T19
(62)
T21
(29)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(9.67)
Brandt Snedeker
(148.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
T66
(0)
T33
(17)
DNP
 
Win
(88)
T11
(52)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T8
(16.67)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Deutsche Bank Championship

Player Barclays Classic Wyndham PGA Championship WGC-Bridgestone Reno-Tahoe Open Canadian Open British Open Sanderson Farms Scottish Open John Deere French Open Greenbrier Classic AT&T National
Derek Ernst
(-53 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-20)
T57
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T44
(2)
Billy Horschel
(-35.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
T44
(6)
DNP
 
T68
(0)
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T30
(6.67)
T61
(0)
Scott Stallings
(-32.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
T55
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T23
(9)
CUT
(-3.33)
Scott Brown
(-27.33 pts)
T62
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T61
(0)
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T22
(9.33)
DNP
 
T72
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
Luke Guthrie
(-26 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
T47
(6)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T21
(9.67)
Sang-Moon Bae
(-25.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T52
(0)
CUT
(-20)
T53
(0)
DNP
 
T31
(12.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Ken Duke
(-17.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP
 
T57
(0)
T65
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T64
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T48
(0.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T52
(0)
Brian Davis
(-16 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T33
(5.67)
DNP
 
T30
(6.67)
T8
(16.67)
Pat Perez
(-15 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T6
(20)
76
(0)
Jimmy Walker
(-13.33 pts)
T54
(0)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T2
(33.33)
CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

With Adam Scott winning the Barclays, his name is now officially in the Player of the Year race.  A couple of weeks ago it seemed to be in Tiger Woods hands with his five victories this year, with Phil Mickelson running second with his British Open win and victories in the WM Phoenix Open and Scottish Open.  Scott is now a serious contender to Tiger’s possible crown with his Masters and Barclays victory.  You look at his 2013 record and has a T3rd in the WGC-Cadilla, T3rd at the British Open and T5th at the PGA Championship.  The real reason to think about Scott is his record at the Deutsche Bank.He has a victory and has been in the top-ten five of the eight years he has played in it, so if Scott wins this week he will be leading the FedEx Cup and could possibly win it.  A FedEx Cup playoff win along with a Masters victory would trump Tiger’s five PGA Tour wins.

The other item that is on people’s mind is the health of Tiger Woods.  At the Barclays he was forthright on his neck and back problems, having to stop playing in the pro-am and then his painful swing on the back nine on Sunday.  It leaves him up in the air for this week and we don’t know what the long range outlook for Tiger is.  Now I am not playing devils advocate, but in 2012 Tiger was hurt in the final round of the WGC-Cadillac and withdrew from the tournament.  Everyone was wondering on his health and other possible problems but a funny thing happened.  The next week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Tiger seem to be find and no problems and went on to win that week.  So you never know about Tiger and his aches and pains.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Deutsche Bank Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

  • Now in past years it was obvious that this course was a long hitters haven.  Last year we had Rory McIlroy, in 2010 we had Charley Hoffman.  In 2008 it was Vijay Singh while in 2007 it was Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2006, all very long hitters  Still don’t rule out the short hitters, just look at 2009 winner Steve Stricker, the same with Webb Simpson in 2011.  But he isn’t the only one, the 2005 champion Olin Browne is one of the shorter hitters on tour and 2003 runner-up Rocco Mediate is also short.  In the same breath it’s safe to say that accuracy doesn’t pay on this course.  In it’s ten years of being played, of the 126 players that have finished in the top-ten in driving accuracy, only 24 have been in the top-ten.
  • Looking at the stats from it’s ten year history, look for those with sharp iron games to produce the best score.  Look for a smart player that doesn’t attack the holes but plays placement golf to win.  Of the ten winners, two led the greens hit category while the first seven of eight winners were in the top-ten.  But a funny thing has happened the last two years, in 2011 Webb Simpson and in 2012 Rory McIlroy both finished T35th.
  • Since the event doesn’t start until Friday, players will have an extra day to get use to the course.  Look for those that are starting to practice on Tuesday to rule the roost.
  • The greens are 6,000 square feet, which is about average on the PGA Tour. They have a lot of undulation in them and that could be one of the reasons why winners haven’t dominating the putting stats.
  • There are only three par 5s on the course, still in looking at the winners Adam Scott in 2003 was 13 under par, Singh in 2004 was 9 under par, Browne in 2005 was 5 under, Woods in 2006 was 9 under, Phil Mickelson in 2007 was 10 under  in 2008 Vijay was 12 under while in 2009 Steve Stricker was 10 under, in 2010 Charley Hoffman was 9 under while Webb Simpson was 7 under in 2011 and Rory McIlroy was 5 under so being low on the long holes has plenty of benefits.
  • Interesting to note that Vijay Singh and Tiger Woods won the Deutsche Bank the month after taking the PGA Championship.  It’s also interesting to note that Deutsche Bank winners Woods, Singh and Adam Scott have also been runner-up here.  As for this year’s PGA Champion Jason Dufner he came close to winning at the Deutsche Bank when he finished T2nd the first time he played in this event in 2009.
  • In conclusion, look for those that have been playing well the last couple of weeks to do well this week.  Of course we know that Adam Scott won last week with Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, Graham Delaet and Gary Woodland finishing 2nd.  But there isn’t any real cut “hot players” coming into play this week.  Now usually the defending champion doesn’t play good, the way Rory McIlroy has been playing this year that trend will continue another year.

Who to watch for at the Deutsche Bank Championship

Best Bets:

Adam Scott

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T7 T8 T5 T73 T17 T50 T2 Win

This is a very easy call, just look at his record on this course it’s supreme, he is playing great and this could be the easiest pick of the year.

Phil Mickelson

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T4 T10 T25 T27 T73 Win

He had a great finish at Barclays and has won on this course before, look for him to be in contention on Sunday.

Tiger Woods

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
3 T11 T11 T2 Win T40 T2 T7

Another player with great vibes of playing well on this course. Still have to wait and see how the back and neck are, but if they aren’t a problem you know that Tiger will be in contention.

Best of the rest:

Justin Rose

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T68 CUT T54 CUT T4 T27 T29 3

Starting to get back into the groove of playing good golf again, look for him to contend.

Steve Stricker

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T13 T42 9 Win T13 T9 T7 CUT CUT CUT

Has played great this year but still looking for that first win, he can do it on this course.

Rickie Fowler

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T74 T52 T41

Showed some signs of good play last week, could get better this week.

Matt Kuchar

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T35 T25 T11 T15 CUT T41 T27 T17 CUT

Looking to snap back from a terrible final round at the Barclays.

Solid contenders

Brandt Snedeker

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
6 T3 T5 T32 T27 T47

Since winning in Canada has gone the opposite direction playing some terrible golf. Still think that he could snap out of it and play well on a course he has done well on the last three years.

Jason Dufner

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T18 T31 T18 T2 T37

Course is good for him and I can see him popping back and playing well.

Zach Johnson

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T47 T16 T30 T19 T30 CUT T13

Another great ball striker that could do well this week.

Jim Furyk

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T13 6 T37 T8 T7 T55 T35 T13

Another of those players to watch, has been playing well the last month.

Long shots that could come through:

Graham Delaet

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT

Should be on a high after his great finish last week at the Barclays.

Jonas Blixt

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T20

Look for his good play to continue after he got a bit sidetrack with a final round 81 at the Barclays.

D.A. Points

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T20 CUT CUT T49 T66 CUT

Game came around last week at the Barclays.

Going into the opposite direction:

Henrik Stenson

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T55

His great play came to a crashing halt after three poor rounds to end the Barclays. Look for more of the same this week am afraid.

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