BlogDeutsche Bank Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

With Adam Scott winning the Barclays, his name is now officially in the Player of the Year race.  A couple of weeks ago it seemed to be in Tiger Woods hands with his five victories this year, with Phil Mickelson running second with his British Open win and victories in the WM Phoenix Open and Scottish Open.  Scott is now a serious contender to Tiger’s possible crown with his Masters and Barclays victory.  You look at his 2013 record and has a T3rd in the WGC-Cadilla, T3rd at the British Open and T5th at the PGA Championship.  The real reason to think about Scott is his record at the Deutsche Bank.He has a victory and has been in the top-ten five of the eight years he has played in it, so if Scott wins this week he will be leading the FedEx Cup and could possibly win it.  A FedEx Cup playoff win along with a Masters victory would trump Tiger’s five PGA Tour wins.

The other item that is on people’s mind is the health of Tiger Woods.  At the Barclays he was forthright on his neck and back problems, having to stop playing in the pro-am and then his painful swing on the back nine on Sunday.  It leaves him up in the air for this week and we don’t know what the long range outlook for Tiger is.  Now I am not playing devils advocate, but in 2012 Tiger was hurt in the final round of the WGC-Cadillac and withdrew from the tournament.  Everyone was wondering on his health and other possible problems but a funny thing happened.  The next week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Tiger seem to be find and no problems and went on to win that week.  So you never know about Tiger and his aches and pains.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Deutsche Bank Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

• Now in past years it was obvious that this course was a long hitters haven.  Last year we had Rory McIlroy, in 2010 we had Charley Hoffman.  In 2008 it was Vijay Singh while in 2007 it was Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2006, all very long hitters  Still don’t rule out the short hitters, just look at 2009 winner Steve Stricker, the same with Webb Simpson in 2011.  But he isn’t the only one, the 2005 champion Olin Browne is one of the shorter hitters on tour and 2003 runner-up Rocco Mediate is also short.  In the same breath it’s safe to say that accuracy doesn’t pay on this course.  In it’s ten years of being played, of the 126 players that have finished in the top-ten in driving accuracy, only 24 have been in the top-ten.
• Looking at the stats from it’s ten year history, look for those with sharp iron games to produce the best score.  Look for a smart player that doesn’t attack the holes but plays placement golf to win.  Of the ten winners, two led the greens hit category while the first seven of eight winners were in the top-ten.  But a funny thing has happened the last two years, in 2011 Webb Simpson and in 2012 Rory McIlroy both finished T35th.
• Since the event doesn’t start until Friday, players will have an extra day to get use to the course.  Look for those that are starting to practice on Tuesday to rule the roost.
• The greens are 6,000 square feet, which is about average on the PGA Tour. They have a lot of undulation in them and that could be one of the reasons why winners haven’t dominating the putting stats.
• There are only three par 5s on the course, still in looking at the winners Adam Scott in 2003 was 13 under par, Singh in 2004 was 9 under par, Browne in 2005 was 5 under, Woods in 2006 was 9 under, Phil Mickelson in 2007 was 10 under  in 2008 Vijay was 12 under while in 2009 Steve Stricker was 10 under, in 2010 Charley Hoffman was 9 under while Webb Simpson was 7 under in 2011 and Rory McIlroy was 5 under so being low on the long holes has plenty of benefits.
• Interesting to note that Vijay Singh and Tiger Woods won the Deutsche Bank the month after taking the PGA Championship.  It’s also interesting to note that Deutsche Bank winners Woods, Singh and Adam Scott have also been runner-up here.  As for this year’s PGA Champion Jason Dufner he came close to winning at the Deutsche Bank when he finished T2nd the first time he played in this event in 2009.
• In conclusion, look for those that have been playing well the last couple of weeks to do well this week.  Of course we know that Adam Scott won last week with Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, Graham Delaet and Gary Woodland finishing 2nd.  But there isn’t any real cut “hot players” coming into play this week.  Now usually the defending champion doesn’t play good, the way Rory McIlroy has been playing this year that trend will continue another year.