BlogTour Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

A very interesting mix in the first three playoff events this year as no one player has dominated.  Only three players have two top-tens.  First Graham Delaet was T2nd at Barclays and then 3rd at Deutsche Bank.  But at the BMW he fell to T28th.  Then you had the story of Nick Watney, he was T9th at the Barclays, then T35th at the Deutsche Bank and 2nd at the BMW.  Lastly you have the Jim Furyk story, after a T6th at Barclays, he was T27th at Deutsche Bank and then followed it up with a 3rd at the BMW.  Unfortunately for Furyk he had the third round lead and for the six time in the last two years wasn’t able to convert.

Now for the three winners, Barclays winner Adam Scott followed that up with a T53rd at the Deutsche Bank, followed by a T28th at the BMW.  Deutsche Bank winner Henrik Stenson started the playoffs with a T43rd at the Barclays and then T33rd at the BMW.  For Zach Johnson, he took the week off at Barclays to be the best man at his brothers wedding and then finished T27th at the Deutsche Bank.  So for this FedEx Cup nobody has made a run.

The happiest person has to be Tiger Woods, who is having putting problems in the last month.  He started out with a T2nd at the Barclays, then followed it up with a T65th at the Deutsche Bank and then a T11th at the BMW.  Even though he hasn’t played well in the last two playoff events he is the player to beat.  He leads going into the Tour Championship and has the best shot of winning the playoffs.  Even if he doesn’t win, it will take a win by Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott, Zach Johnson or Matt Kuchar to snatch away the title.  The PGA Tour has done a nice chart that explains what it will take for each of the 30 players to win the cup.

So what does all of this mean?  Just like this year with three different winners, history has pointed to the fact that the leaders of the FedEx Cup going into the Tour Championship hasn’t won.  Yes the leader won the first three years but the point system was altered giving more players a shot.  For Jim Furyk, Bill Haas and Brandt Snedeker they won the Tour Championship and won the playoffs.  So the point is, for Tiger to win the FedEx Cup he better go into this week with the thought that he has to win.

As for Player of the Year it’s safe to say that Tiger is probably the champion, unless either Adam Scott or Phil Mickelson win at East Lake and that would be a toss up, yes they have a major each but Tiger does have five wins in five big events, two of them being WGC events.  So I have to give the nod to Woods.

Here are some of the secrets of East Lake:

The course was designed by Tom Bendelow around 1905 and in 1913 Donald Ross completely reworked the course and even though the layout is the same today, it was altered by George Cobb before the 1963 Ryder Cup matches.

East Lake has had a rather tumultuous existence. From its inception until the early 1960s, East Lake was one of the top courses in the entire country. It was Bobby Jones’s home golf course. The Ryder Cup was hosted at East Lake in 1963. However, problems began to arise at the Atlanta country club as the area got seedy and higher income people began emigrating to the suburbs, leaving only lower-income households to inhabit the area surrounding the once storied Country Club. In the ’60s the membership decided to abandon the site and move to what is presently Atlanta Athletic Club, with East Lake becoming a public course.

For the next 30 years, the golf course, along with the community itself, floundered, as the area became the most dangerous part of Atlanta. Police often referred to the area in the 70s & 80s surrounding East Lake as “Little Vietnam.”

In 1993, Tom Cousins, an esteemed real-estate developer and East Lake resident, joined with a charitable foundation in an effort to restore the East Lake Golf Club and the surrounding community to its previously leviathan stature. The two-phase plan included restoration on all housing, and an overhaul of the dilapidated golf course. Rees Jones was hired to do the restoration in 1994.

Jones revamped the grass, changed many tees, and completely changed the landscaping. Unfortunely when Jones did all of the work, it wasn’t thought of holding a tournament in September, just weeks after the hot summer season.  Everyone was caught by surprise in 2007 when the greens were stressed by a combination of drought and 28 days in August of heat over 90 degrees.  With these conditions, there was not enough time for the bentgrass greens to adequately recover from Atlanta’s hottest summer on record in the midst of a drought. and it was determined that in the best interest that the Crenshaw creep bent grass would be replaced with bermudagrass.  In making the changes to the greens, Jones also changed some of the contours of the greens and created some roll-off areas on greens.

In addition, the green on No. 7 was changed and pushed back 43 yards, extending the par-4 hole to 394 yards. The fairway and green on No. 17 were repositioned left, closer to East Lake’s shoreline, and new tees were added on No. 13, 15 and 16. New fairways bunkers were added on the left side of No. 3, 7 and 16, and to the right side of No. 15. Bunkers were reconfigured on the green at No. 16 and expanded on the right side of the green on No. 14, as well as the left side of No. 4 green. New hole locations were created on various greens and low-cut, roll-off areas were installed off of greens on No. 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10 and 17.

Now the course is in great shape, the rough is high and the fairways and greens are hard and fast.  For the week the weather looks like it’s going to be really nice until Saturday with 50% chance of Thunderstorms. So the course will play short, hard and very fast until then.

Today, the course plays as a 7,154 yard, par 70. It features a 3/8″ cut of Meyer Zoysia grass on both the tees and fairways while the rough is a 2.3″ cut of 419 Bermuda Grass.

The signature hole at East Lake is the Par 3, 6th. The hole plays at around 168 yards, but the downhill shot eliminates some of the distance. The tee was expanded and if officials want, they can stretch the hole to 225 yards.  The challenge of the hole is provided by the green itself. Golfers must attack a peninsula green with water left, right and in front of the green, as well as part of the backside. Adding to the difficulty, is a small bunker on the front left and the green, effectively making this an island green.  One other change, the tee at 17 was expanded and the hole can play to 470 yards even though the “official” yardage on the hole is 453.

Over the years this course is know for hitting it on the fairway and then hitting the most greens.  It’s tough and fair, a gem of a layout that players look forward to playing each year.

Key stat for the winner:

• As was proven in past Tour Championships played at East Lake it favors those that hit lots of greens.  Just look at the ten winners of previous Tour Championships at East Lake. Hal Sutton in 1998 was 1st while in 2000 Phil Mickelson was T4th in greens hit, Vijay Singh was T8th in 2002, Retief Goosen was first in 2004 and Bart Bryant first in 2005, Adam Scott was T6th in 2006 while in 2007 Tiger Woods led, in 2008 Camilo Villegas was T3rd while in 2009 Phil Mickelson was T8th.  Last year Jim Furyk led the greens hit so we can see that hitting greens is important because if you miss a green at East Lake it will be very difficult to get up and down for par. Look at not only past champions at East Lake but players that have done well. A perfect example of that is Jim Furyk, who has a great record at East Lake including a win, a 2nd, a T3rd, a T6th and a pair of T7ths.
• Another key is holding the lead going into the final round.  Since 1987, the player who either led or had a share of the lead through 54 holes has gone on to win 16 out of 26 times – Tom Watson (1987), Curtis Strange (’88), Jodie Mudd (’90), Craig Stadler (’91), Paul Azinger (’92), Billy Mayfair (’95), Tom Lehman (’96), David Duval (’97), Tiger Woods (’99), Vijay Singh (2002), Chad Campbell in 2003, Bart Bryant in 2005, Adam Scott in 2006, Tiger Woods in 2007, Jim Furyk in 2010 and Brandt Snedeker last year.  Last year Jim Furyk led the field in greens hit and also won.  So check it out at GolfStats.Com.
• Experience and having a good year coming into the event is also a factor. Just look at the winners the last ten years.  Brandt Snedker last year, Jim Furyk in 2010, Phil Mickelson the year before, Tiger Woods in 2007, Adam Scott the year before that.  Bart Bryant in 2005 and Retief Goosen in 2004 were examples of this. Scott finished either 2nd or 3rd six times going into the event, Bryant had won the Memorial early in the year while Goosen won the U.S. Open and then capped off with the Tour Championship.  All of them won capping off great years so I really feel that this year’s victor will be one of the multiple winners like Dustin Johnson, Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker, Hunter Mahan or Justin Rose.  In talking about experience it should be pointed out that seven players (Keegan Bradley, Bill Haas, Fredrik Jacobsen, Chez Reavie, Webb Simpson, Mark Wilson and Gary Woodland) have never competed before at East Lake, again giving the advantage to those that know East Lake.
• One last thing to look for. Yes the course is demanding, but as it goes into year 13th overall and the tenth year in a row as the host course, the pros are starting to learn it better and shoot lower scores.  Yes, it’s going to take four rounds in the 60s to win, but other than Bart Bryant’s brilliant 17 under par performance in 2005 and Tiger Woods 23 under performance in 2007 it’s rarely been taken apart.  Look for that trend to continue this year even with the course playing fast.