Welcome to GOLFstats.com! You are currently viewing a special post on GOLFstats.com .
For the best experience and full access to GOLFstats.com, CLICK HERE to sign up for a $15 one month GOLFstats Ultimate account!

BlogAlfred Dunhill Links Championship Preview and Picks

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

September 26 – 29, 2013

Old Course at St. Andrews

St. Andrews, Fife, Scotland

Par: 72 / Yardage:

Purse: $5 Million

with $805,987 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Branden Grace

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 24 of the top 101 in the latest Official World Rankings, with the highest rank player in the field, here are the eight of the top-50: #19 Charl Schwartzel, #22 Ernie Els, #28 Louis Oosthuizen, #36 Branden Grace, #38 Richard Sterne, #42 Martin Kaymer, #43 Jamie Donaldson and #49 Thorbjorn Olesen.  Here are the other top-101 players in the field: #52 David Lynn, #55 Joost Luiten, #58 Thongchai Jaidee, #60 Bernd Wiesberger, #63 Stephen Gallacher, #67 Chris Wood, #69 Paul Lawrie, #73 Mikko Ilonen, #76 Alex Noren, #78 Brett Rumford, #84 Shane Lowry, #94 Marcus Fraser, #95 Padraig Harrington, #98 Brooks Koepka, #100 Peter Uihlein and #101 Paul Casey.

The field includes 32 of the Top 50 on this year’s Race to Dubai money list.  Those players include #4 Ricahrd Sterne, #6 Branden Grace, #7 Brett Rumford, #9 Ernie Els, #11 Joost Luiten, #15 Stephen Gallacher, #16 Mikko Ilonen, #17 Charl Schwartzel, #18 Thongchai Jaidee, #19 Jamie Donaldson, #21 Thorbjorn Olesen, #22 Gregory Bourdy, #23 Marc Warren, #24 Scott Jamieson,  #25 Chris Wood, #29 Paul Casey, #30 Peter Uihlein, #32 Tommy Fleetwood, #33 Thomas Aiken, #34 Felipe Aguilar, #35 Martin Kaymer, #36 Bernd Wiesberger, #37 Louis Oosthuizen, #38 Simon Khan, #39 Alex Noren, #40 Pablo Larrazabal, #41 Julien Quesne, #43 Victor Dubuisson, #50 Marcus Fraser, #46 Shane Lowry, #47 Raphael Jacquelin and #48 Rafa Cabrera-Bello.

The field includes 8 past champions: Branden Grace (2012), Michael Hoey (2011), Martin Kaymer (2010), Simon Dyson (2009), Nick Dougherty (2007), Padraig Harrington (2006 & ’02), Stephen Gallacher (2004) and Paul Lawrie (2001).

The field includes 21 players that have won on the European Tour this year: Scott Jamieson (Nelson Mandela), Charl Schwartz (Alfred Dunhill Championship), Louis Oosthuizen (Volvo Golf Champions, Jamie Donaldson (Abu Dhabi), Chris Wood (Qatar Masters), Stephen Gallacher (Dubai Desert Classic), Richard Sterne (Joburg Open), Darren Fichardt (Africa Open), Thomas Aiken (Avantha Masters), Raphael Jacquelin (Spanish Open), Brett Rumford (Ballantine’s & Volvo China Open), Peter Uihlein (Madeira Island Open), Mikko Ilonen (Nordea Masters), Joost Luiten (Lyoness Open & KLM Open), Simon Thornton (Najeti Hotels Golf Open), Ernie Els (BMW International), Paul Casey (Irish Open), Michael Hoey (Russian Open), Tommy Fleeetwood (Johnnie Walker Gleneagles), Gregory Bourdy (Wales Open) and Julien Quesne (Italian Open).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Alfred Dunhill Links field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Alfred Dunhill Links  in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Alfred Dunhill Links.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

 

 

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

Player Italian Open KLM Open Omega European Masters Wales Open Johnnie Walker Gleneagles PGA Championship Russian Open WGC-Bridgestone British Open Scottish Open French Open Irish Open BMW International
Joost Luiten
(231.67 pts)
DNP
 
Win
(132)
T44
(6)
T4
(53.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T49
(0.33)
T2
(33.33)
T10
(13.33)
Ross Fisher
(216 pts)
DNP
 
T3
(90)
T5
(70)
T62
(0)
T17
(22)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T24
(8.67)
T34
(5.33)
T22
(9.33)
T18
(10.67)
Simon Dyson
(201.33 pts)
T47
(3)
T3
(90)
T22
(28)
T18
(21.33)
T28
(14.67)
DNP
 
9
(15)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T12
(12.67)
5
(23.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Julien Quesne
(184.33 pts)
Win
(132)
7
(55)
T41
(9)
T58
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
WD
(-1.67)
Gregory Havret
(163.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T3
(90)
T7
(55)
CUT
(-6.67)
T35
(10)
DNP
 
T5
(23.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T15
(11.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
Emiliano Grillo
(160.33 pts)
T4
(80)
T11
(39)
CUT
(-10)
T18
(21.33)
T6
(40)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T53
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
Tommy Fleetwood
(158.67 pts)
DNP
 
T30
(20)
T9
(45)
CUT
(-6.67)
Win
(88)
DNP
 
T65
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T17
(11)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T26
(8)
Stephen Gallacher
(145 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T9
(45)
WD
(-3.33)
T2
(66.67)
T61
(0)
DNP
 
T44
(3)
T21
(19.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T8
(16.67)
T47
(1)
DNP
 
Seve Benson
(127.33 pts)
T8
(50)
T50
(1)
T26
(24)
T8
(33.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T17
(11)
T18
(10.67)
T42
(2.67)
T46
(1.33)
Gregory Bourdy
(125.67 pts)
T42
(8)
DNP
 
T44
(6)
Win
(88)
T23
(18)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T64
(0)
T49
(0.33)
T34
(5.33)
DNP
 
T58
(0)
Soren Kjeldsen
(123.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
8
(50)
T54
(0)
3
(60)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T31
(6.33)
T8
(16.67)
T18
(10.67)
T68
(0)
Richard Sterne
(121.17 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T13
(37)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T9
(22.5)
T21
(19.33)
T31
(6.33)
2
(33.33)
T22
(9.33)
DNP
 
Damien McGrane
(120 pts)
T59
(0)
T3
(90)
CUT
(-10)
T6
(40)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T42
(2.67)
T18
(10.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Paul Casey
(119.5 pts)
DNP
 
T41
(9)
T15
(35)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T33
(11.33)
DNP
 
T27
(11.5)
DNP
 
T24
(8.67)
DNP
 
Win
(44)
T53
(0)
Brooks Koepka
(115 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T22
(28)
T7
(55)
T18
(21.33)
T28
(14.67)
T70
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
T12
(12.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Craig Lee
(113.33 pts)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
2
(100)
T31
(12.67)
T14
(24)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
68
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Bernd Wiesberger
(112.33 pts)
T23
(27)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
T4
(53.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T64
(0)
T31
(6.33)
T13
(12.33)
DNP
 
T4
(26.67)
David Horsey
(109.33 pts)
T16
(34)
T9
(45)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T14
(24)
DNP
 
T17
(11)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T24
(8.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T58
(0)
Marcus Fraser
(109.33 pts)
T8
(50)
T16
(34)
T20
(30)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T47
(2)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T54
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Brett Rumford
(106 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(35)
T8
(33.33)
T6
(40)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T63
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T22
(9.33)
T35
(5)
Victor Dubuisson
(105 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
3
(90)
WD
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T17
(11)
T18
(10.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T53
(0)
Shane Lowry
(102.67 pts)
DNP
 
T26
(24)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T10
(26.67)
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T48
(1)
T32
(12)
T31
(6.33)
DNP
 
T5
(23.33)
T22
(9.33)
Eduardo De La Riva
(100.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T16
(34)
T57
(0)
T15
(23.33)
T49
(0.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(23.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T3
(30)
T32
(6)
CUT
(-3.33)
Thongchai Jaidee
(96.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T9
(45)
T26
(16)
T17
(22)
T47
(2)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T32
(12)
66
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T41
(3)
Rafael Cabrera-Bello
(95.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T46
(4)
DNP
 
T15
(23.33)
T35
(10)
T29
(14)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(19.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T29
(7)
T5
(23.33)
T26
(8)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

Player Italian Open KLM Open Omega European Masters Wales Open Johnnie Walker Gleneagles PGA Championship Russian Open WGC-Bridgestone British Open Scottish Open French Open Irish Open BMW International
Jeev Milkha Singh
(-54 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T42
(2.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Phillip Price
(-50 pts)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Niclas Fasth
(-50 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
T57
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Martin Wiegele
(-46.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
T69
(0)
DNP
 
T58
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T53
(0)
Ignacio Garrido
(-46.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
T58
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T59
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Gary Lockerbie
(-45.67 pts)
WD
(-5)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T32
(6)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Maarten Lafeber
(-38 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
WD
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T24
(8.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T52
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
T62
(0)
Joel Sjoholm
(-31.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
T35
(10)
DNP
 
T24
(8.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Peter Whiteford
(-30 pts)
T66
(0)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T10
(13.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Robert Coles
(-29 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T63
(0)
T49
(1)
T64
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

The tour moves back to Scotland for the last of the six events on the British Islands.  This week’s Alfred Dunhill Links is the European Tours answer to the PGA Tours AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.  A pro-am event held over three great links with the conclusion on the home of golf, the Old Course of St. Andrews.

With the FedEx Cup over and the PGA Tour getting ready to start the 2014 season, they have gotten a very good field to play.  14 Major Champions including Jose Maria Olazabal, David Duval, Ernie Els, Darren Clarke, Retief Goosen, Padraig Harrington, Martin Kaymer, Paul Lawrie, Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel and Vijay Singh will be playing. Defending champion Branden Grace will also be returning, hoping to become the first player to win back-to-back Alfred Dunhill Links titles.

What makes this event unique is that each pro will be partner with an amateur partner and play one round over the Old Course, Kingsbarns and Carnoustie.  All three are challenging with the Old Course and Carnoustie sites of past British Opens.  As for Kingsbarns, the course is only 12 years old and over the course of time could be good enough to also hold an Open Championship on it’s links.

After this week there will only be two chances to make it into the Race to Dubai playoffs with events in Portugal and Australia.  After the conclusion of the Perth International the Race to Dubai list will be converted into a points table with each euro equaling a point.  For the first Final Series event, the BMW Masters in China field will be made up of 78 players comprising the top 60 in the World Rankings, 14 players from the Chinese Golf Association, three tournament invites and the balance from The 2013 Race to Dubai.

Adding to this will be FedEx Cup winner Henrik Stenson who said he will play in all four final series events and he tries to add the Race to Dubai title to his FedEx victory.

One last thing, Louis Oosthuizen is returning this week after taking not playing since the British Open.  Oosthuizen has had a long standing problem with his neck, back and hip and he is getting ready to play in the President Cup.  The good news, he returns to St. Andrews and all of the great memories from winning the Open Championship there in 2010.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Alfred Dunhill Links:

Key stat for the winner:

Have to handle three of the best golf courses in the world as you play with another pro and an amateur for the first three days.  Those that have won in the past are patient men, also have to be able to handle all of the elements because this is the time of year that the weather will be changing and it will be a lot cooler and wetter than it was when the British Open was played in Scotland in July.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Lots of marquee winners in the 12 years of this event with Martin Kaymer, Padraig Harrington, Colin Montgomerie, Lee Westwood and Paul Lawrie claiming the title.  But it doesn’t mean that a first timer can’t win, in 2004 Scottish born Stephen Gallacher was a very popular winner and showed that anyone can win this title.
  • After to be able to handle poor weather.  In looking at some predications for the week, it looks like a front has come in on Tuesday with rain through Friday afternoon.  It won’t get any higher than today’s 60 degrees but the good news is that the rain will go away and the weekend will have just cloudy days with it getting up in the mid-60s.  Another concern for the players, win will be around.  All three courses are on the sea and won’t get protected from the cold winds blowing in off the North seas.
  • Again I can’t stress the importance of check out our European Tour player rankings page to see who is playing the best.
  • In gauging things it’s important to point out that of the three courses, St. Andrews will play the easiest and Carnoustie will play the hardest.  So when looking at first round scores don’t disregard someone that shoots between 70 and 74 at Carnoustie.  Now the last two winners have taken advantage of the first round, last year Branden Grace openend up with a 60 at Kingsbarns and then shot 67 in the second round at the Old Course.  In 2011 Michael Hoey took advantage of playing first on the Old Course shooting 66 followed by a 66 in the second round at Kingsbarns.

Who to watch for at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

Best Bets:

Simon Dyson

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T9 T5 Win CUT T55 T8 T49 T29 T49 T26 T52

A past champion that has been playing well of late, a deadly combination.

Ross Fisher

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T22 T64 T11 CUT T2 T49 T61

Watch him, playing great with T3rd at KLM on a links course and T5th in Switzerland.

Paul Casey

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T8 T10 T6 T23 T44 CUT CUT T5

Has played well in the past in this event which gives him a edge.

Best of the rest:

Martin Kaymer

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T34 T30 Win T2 T15

Past champion, his game hasn’t been sharp but he is coming off some time off which could help him.

Stephen Gallacher

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T5 CUT T17 T24 CUT CUT T7 Win CUT CUT CUT

Past champion that is playing well and should be one of the favorites this week.

Joost Luiten

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T47 T9 T58 CUT T40

Another of those players that are doing well right now and could carry over to this week

Peter Uihlein

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Playing in this event for the first time, still a great talent that can win at any time.

Solid contenders

Charl Schwartzel

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T66 T9 CUT T13 CUT T22 CUT CUT CUT

Good player that can be on top of a leaderboard on any given week.

Danny Willett

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T5 T27 2 T42

Good record in this event including T5th last year and 2nd in 2010.

Tommy Fleetwood

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T55 T5

Looking for that rare Scottish double, won at Gleneagles last month. As for the Dunhill, he did finish T5th in 2011.

Marcus Fraser

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T58 CUT T24 CUT CUT CUT T44 CUT

Not that stellar of a record in this event, still is playing well and looks like he may peak this week.

Long shots that could come through:

Joel Sjoholm

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
4

Finished T4th last year.

Emillano Grillo

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Watch him, he has been in the top-11 in three of his last five starts including a T4th last week in Italy.

Damien McGrane

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT CUT CUT T36 T24 CUT T15 CUT

May not have that great of a record in this event but still playing well.

Worst Bets:

Louis Oosthuizen

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T5 CUT T40 CUT CUT CUT T44

May be a nice stroll down memory lane but we don’t know if he is healthy or not.

Speak Your Mind