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BlogFrys.com Open Preview and Picks

Frys.com Open

October 10 – 13, 2013

CordeValle Golf Club

San Martin, Ca.

Par: 71 / Yardage:

Purse: $5 Million

with $900,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jonas Blixt

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 3 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with the highest rank player being #30 Hideki Matsuyama.   The other top 50 players are #34 Jonas Blixt and #35 Billy Horschel.

The field includes 2 of the Top 25 on last year’s final FedEx point standings for 2013.  Those players include #16 Billy Horschel and #23 Gary Woodland.

The field includes only one player in the top 25 on last year’s PGA Tour money list, #13 Billy Horschel.

The field includes all 6 past champions: Jonas Blixt (2012), Bryce Molder (2011), Rocco Mediate (2010), Troy Matteson (2009), Cameron Beckman (2008) and Mike Weir (2007).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Frys.com Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at Frys.com Open in the last five years or check out our  and sortable 8-year glance at the Frys.com Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Frys.com Open

Player Tour Championship BMW Championship Deutsche Bank Championship Barclays Classic Wyndham Championship PGA Championship WGC-Bridgestone Invitational Reno-Tahoe Open RBC Canadian Open British Open Sanderson Farms Championship
Gary Woodland
(177 pts)
T22
(42)
T18
(32)
T41
(9)
T2
(50)
DNP
 
74
(0)
DNP
 
Win
(44)
T61
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Rory Sabbatini
(116.17 pts)
DNP
 
T11
(39)
T53
(0)
T13
(18.5)
T8
(16.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(18.33)
T12
(12.67)
DNP
 
T17
(11)
Billy Horschel
(99.17 pts)
T7
(82.5)
T18
(32)
T70
(0)
CUT
(-5)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
T44
(3)
DNP
 
T68
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
Hideki Matsuyama
(98.17 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
15
(11.67)
T19
(20.67)
T21
(14.5)
DNP
 
T16
(11.33)
T6
(40)
DNP
 
Daniel Summerhays
(94.17 pts)
DNP
 
T28
(22)
T22
(28)
T15
(17.5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T2
(33.33)
John Merrick
(70 pts)
DNP
 
T18
(32)
T53
(0)
T50
(0.5)
DNP
 
T47
(2)
T19
(15.5)
DNP
 
T6
(20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jonas Blixt
(69.33 pts)
DNP
 
T51
(0)
T53
(0)
T58
(0)
DNP
 
4
(53.33)
T59
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T26
(16)
DNP
 
Nicholas Thompson
(68.5 pts)
DNP
 
T44
(6)
T22
(28)
T50
(0.5)
72
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T28
(7.33)
DNP
 
4
(26.67)
Brendan Steele
(64.67 pts)
DNP
 
61
(0)
T20
(30)
CUT
(-5)
T11
(13)
DNP
 
DNP
 
4
(26.67)
T68
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Marc Leishman
(63.67 pts)
DNP
 
T39
(11)
T16
(34)
71
(0)
DNP
 
T12
(25.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
John Huh
(59.83 pts)
DNP
 
49
(1)
T22
(28)
T15
(17.5)
T3
(30)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
Patrick Reed
(54 pts)
DNP
 
T59
(0)
T70
(0)
CUT
(-5)
Win
(44)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T9
(15)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Brian Davis
(48.67 pts)
DNP
 
T33
(17)
8
(50)
CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
David Hearn
(41 pts)
DNP
 
T28
(22)
T35
(15)
T72
(0)
DNP
 
T47
(2)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T44
(2)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jason Bohn
(40 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T2
(33.33)
DNP
 
T9
(15)
Kevin Chappell
(38.83 pts)
DNP
 
T62
(0)
T22
(28)
T15
(17.5)
73
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T68
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Bryce Molder
(35.5 pts)
DNP
 
T44
(6)
T41
(9)
T25
(12.5)
T16
(11.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Stuart Appleby
(34.83 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T65
(0)
T41
(4.5)
T45
(1.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T16
(11.33)
T31
(6.33)
DNP
 
T17
(11)
Chris Stroud
(32.83 pts)
DNP
 
T51
(0)
T35
(15)
T33
(8.5)
T37
(4.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T9
(15)
Brendon Todd
(32.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T26
(8)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T13
(12.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T14
(12)
Cameron Beckman
(30 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T52
(0)
DNP
 
T2
(33.33)
Angel Cabrera
(29.67 pts)
DNP
 
T44
(6)
76
(0)
CUT
(-5)
DNP
 
WD
(-3.33)
T38
(6)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T11
(26)
DNP
 
Stewart Cink
(29 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T27
(23)
T68
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T26
(16)
DNP
 
Brian Harman
(28 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-5)
T3
(30)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T11
(13)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T40
(3.33)
Seung-Yul Noh
(27 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(18.33)
T75
(0)
DNP
 
T14
(12)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Frys.com Open

Player Tour Championship BMW Championship Deutsche Bank Championship Barclays Classic Wyndham Championship PGA Championship WGC-Bridgestone Invitational Reno-Tahoe Open RBC Canadian Open British Open Sanderson Farms Championship
Derek Ernst
(-28.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
T57
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Scott Brown
(-23.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
T62
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T61
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
Luke Guthrie
(-23 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-5)
DNP
 
T47
(2)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
Lucas Glover
(-19.17 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-2.5)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
Erik Compton
(-13.17 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
T43
(3.5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Pat Perez
(-11.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T70
(0)
CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
John Rollins
(-11.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T20
(10)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Kyle Stanley
(-10.17 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
T50
(0.5)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T12
(12.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
Carl Pettersson
(-10 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T54
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
70
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T54
(0)
DNP
 
Mike Weir
(-9.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T49
(0.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Hard to believe that just like that 2013 is ended and the 2014 season is starting up.  Now you may wonder how fall has just started and we are only in October, how could the 2014 season start with 80 days left in 2013?  It all started in 2007 when the PGA Tour wasn’t able to get a TV network to show golf in September, October and November. That’s when the idea to do the FedEx Cup playoffs were born, with the Tour Championship moving to the first of September and end the FedEx Cup with that event.  But it left seven old events dangling in the wind.  In a way they were downgraded, yes they were giving away the same money and the race for the top money earners still went on.  But most thought that all of this would be settled at the Tour Championship and it was with the exception of 2011 when Luke Donald won the money title on the last event of the year at the Disney event.

Realistically the last seven events of the year between 2007 and 2012 was more for those to earn enough money to stay in the top-125 and retain there tour cards.  Those events were treated like second class citizens, they didn’t give FedEx Cup points and didn’t get the marquee names the rest of the year got.  On top of that, you had to watch it on Golf Channel so the events weren’t really the same level as the events from January to September.  The winners of those fall events weren’t given Masters invites and basically they were considered a notch below the others.  This created hardships for those events to get sponsors to pay the same as the other events and today only two events the Frys and Las Vegas are still around, the other original five are gone.

One of the things that happened between 2007 and 2012 was the Golf Channel has now become a place to watch golf and they don’t mind competing with the NFL even though I have been told that Golf Channel loses a fortune with these fall events.  But with this and the advent of events in Asian coming online this created a way for the PGA Tour to now complete against the NFL.  Frankly it’s like background noise, nice to have PGA Tour golf in the fall but it’s still not the same as golf between the Hawaii stops and the Tour Championship.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of years.  There is room for golf in the fall, a lot of folks want to see an event every week.  But for the players, especially your marquee names they want to be off in the fall and with some good events in China like the HSBC, there will be some players that play in those events and take time off during the west coast events in January and February so there isn’t any perfect solution.

But for now the season starts this week and by the time the usual year beginning Hyundai Tournament of Champions begins there will be six events in the books.  Be interesting to see how some of the marquee players feel starting the year a couple of million dollars down.  But hey, in 2014 the money list won’t mean anything as there won’t be anything judged off the money list, it will all be off the FedEx Cup list.  Oh one other small item, starting this year there is no more Q-School so the exempt players will be off the FedEx Cup list and the Web.Com Tour.

About the Frys.com Open:

This event started in Scottsdale, Arizona and after three years at Grayhawk transferred to CordeValle Golf Club, close to it’s sponsors headquarters in San Jose.  The hope was that CordeValle would be a temporary home as it’s been the dream to hold the event at the Institute Golf Course in Morgan Hill, CA.   But construction problems and such have forced the event not to be played on the ultra private course that very few have ever seen.  So CordeValle was to be a short term fix, but it will hold the event for a fourth year.  But the big move to Institute won’t happen at least to 2016 as the tournament will be moving on one of the Silverado resort courses in Napa.

Course information:

CordeValle is one of those hidden gems that nobody knows about, until last week.  Designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr. and opened in 2000 it’s already got a great reputation making several top-100 lists of best courses in the country.

CordeValle is located in the foothills of the Santa Cruz Mountains, just south of San Jose and north of Monterey Peninsula.  It’s part of a winery and has a first class hotel and spa as part of it.  Laid out over 260 acres in a valley, it features unobstructed views of radiant natural beauty with dramatic contours and elevation changes.  The course utilizes the natural elevation changes of its peaks and canyons, enhanced by broad meadows, streams, striking sycamore and mature California oak trees. The course features multiple tees and approach angles for varying degrees of difficulty. Strategically placed bunkers with challenging bays, fingers and folds establish the character of the course. An elevation change of approximately 150 feet over the entire 18 holes makes it walkable for the golf purist and demands different strategies and club selections throughout. The course is a par to 71 with the nines reversed for the tournament and play at 7,368 yards.

The tournament 17th is an interesting hole coming down the stretch, a 365-yard par four where if the tees are moved up or conditions are favorable players might be tempted to try to drive the green. To do so, they must avoid water to the right and steer through an opening between bunkers at the front of the green. That’s followed by a picturesque 18th hole, where the fairway is divided into left and right sections by a stream.

CordeValle has a course rating of 75.6 and a slope rating of 147.  As for the course itself, the tees, fairways and rough are Poa Annua with Kentucky bluegrass in the fairways.  The course has 63 bunkers scattered around it with water coming into play five times.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Frys.com Open:

Key stat for the winner:

The biggest stat for all three winners is putting, all three Rocco Mediate, Bryce Molder and Jonas Blixt had the lowest amount of putts, so great putters are the ones that play well here and win.  Also, the short par 4 17th hole has played a major part in two of the three events as Rocco Mediate eagled it in 2010 and last year Blixt birdied the hole on Saturday and Sunday.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Player has to be a birdie machine, those that make the most will win.
  • You have to go low on the par 4s, that was the key for those in the top-5 as Mediate and Molder were 10 under in their wins while Blixt was 11 under last year.
  • Scrambling is also very important because it’s not that demanding around the greens at CordeValle. So greens hit isn’t as important as being able to get up and down on those missed.
  • Lastly the field isn’t loaded with many marquee and experience players.   Look for someone that has not been in the winners circle to prevail since over 75% of the field have not won on the PGA Tour.  Also with this being the first event of a new year look for a lot of guys off the Web.Com priority list to be playing.  This year 29 of those off that list are in the field.

Who to watch for at the Frys.com Open

Best Bets:

Gary Woodland

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T9

Was T9th last year and had a very successful run in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

Billy Horschel

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T29 T7

Of those in the field had the best record in 2013, did finish T7th here in 2011.

Hideki Matsuyama

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

You know how I feel about this player, he will win very soon could be this week.

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Best of the rest:

Charles Howell III

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T11

Always plays well at the beginning of the year, only question will it carry over to a October start of the season?

Geoff Ogilvy

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Looking to improve on a very poor 2013.

Jimmy Walker

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T4 CUT WD CUT

He is ready to break through in 2014, finished T4th here last year.

Aaron Baddeley

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T30 CUT T11 CUT

Place favors good putters, Baddeley is one of the best.

Solid contenders

Tim Clarke

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

Looking for a new start to get over injuries, played well at CordeValle in 2010.

Jamie Lovemark

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T30 T2

We have been waiting for him to be a superstar for a couple of years now, has been injured and is healthy again.

Vijay Singh

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T4

Has not been a force in years, but did finish 4th in this event last year.

Marc Leishman

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T36

Another of those that did well in 2013 and will be looking to improve upon that in 2014.

Brendan Steele

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
CUT T7

Watch him, he could sneak in on top.

Long shots that could come through:

Brooks Koepka

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

A player that we don’t know much about in the states but could be a star in 2014.

John Huh

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
First time playing in this event

This is the type of course that he can do well at.

Jason Kokrak

2012 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
T2

Did finish T2nd here last year.

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