BlogHyundai Tournament of Champions Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

First off congratulations to Rory McIlroy who popped the magic question to Caroline Wozniachi at midnight, New Years Eve while they were watching fireworks at Sydney Harbour.  Quite McIlroy a flair for the romantics as Wozniachi said yes to him.

Before we start happy New Year and looking forward to a great 2014 season.  Not only will we have these previews of all tournaments on the PGA Tour and select tournaments on the European Tour, we will also have video previews to help you better understand the art of picking players and how much Golfstats can help.

Here is our Video preview and picks for the Hyundai

http://youtu.be/xMA99CEVes0

The first event in the year 2014 is the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, played in Maui.

One of the greatest perks on the PGA Tour for winning is getting to start the year off in Maui. For the average person, they would kill just to get to Hawaii, the winners of 2013 they not only get to come to Hawaii but they get a week at a Ritz Carlton on one of the most lovely beaches in the world. Food couldn’t be any better, the scenery is the best for those that like water sports from surfing to snorkeling the Kapalua area is great. Yes this is really hard work and to think, there is no hustle or bustle this week, play bad finish last and you’ll still make $61 grand. What a life.

But let’s face reality, not every pro on the PGA Tour think that playing in the Hyundai T of C is there cup of tea.  Just ask Phil Mickelson and he would diplomatically tell you he loves Maui, but doesn’t want any part of playing 72 holes at Kapalua.  Even though Tiger Woods hasn’t said anything, you have to wonder why after playing in six of the seven T of Cs at Kapalua between 1999 and 2005 he hasn’t been back.  About the only thing Woods has said is that the event is too close to the holidays, the is understandable as it’s starting just two days after New Years day.  Still you have to wonder, he use to play there and doesn’t any more, has to be something else.

These aren’t the only two names missing out this year, Justin Rose, Graeme McDowell and Henrik Stenson took a pass.  For Stenson he is pretty set in his ways and will play three of the four desert events on the European Tour next month so it’s understandable for him not going to Hawaii.  The same with McDowell, who got married a few months back and is redoing his schedule.   He played at Hyundai in 2011 and finished 3rd, but for him to break up his R&R time to fly off to Maui just doesn’t make sense.  The same with Rose, he hasn’t played in Hawaii since 2011 and it just doesn’t fit his schedule anymore.

So the field is down to 30 players and one of the remarkable stats is that of the past champions, last years winner Dustin Johnson is the only champion in the field.  The field could be better if the PGA Tour would take the suggestion to including winners of the last two or three years but they don’t want to do that so they just have to live with a so-so field.

Injuries:

Brandt Snedeker comes back this week after injuring his left knee in a Segway crash in China in November.  Snedeker has followed doctor’s orders and not played, resting the leg.  He took his family to Palm Springs for the holidays and played his first round of golf on December 28th.  He may say that things are fine but I can’t see him playing well this year.  With all of the hills to climb, this is not the course to start for the first time so don’t expect much out of him.

December wasn’t the best month for Boo Weekley who lost his grandfather and uncle earlier in the month.  This forced him to withdraw for the Franklin Templeton and after spending the last couple of weeks with his wife hunting, feels a lot better now.  Weekley has played before at Kapalua and even though he is a great ball striker, handling the greens is not in his wheelhouse so don’t expect much from him.

Course information:

The Plantation course was designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw and was opened in May of 1991. Between 1992 and 1997 the course was the venue of the Lincoln Mercury Kapalua Open, with the Mercedes Championships moving to the Plantation course in 1999. The average green size at Kapalua is 9,500 square feet, which means that it has some of the biggest greens on tour. This will place a premium on putting, especially on long putts. Course has 95 bunkers and no water hazards, with fairways so wide that a 747 can land on them.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions:

Key stat for the winner:

The Plantation Course is not a driving course. A good driver has no advantage here so players just have to rear back and hit it as far as they can. The fairways are big enough to land a 747 on them and for those that miss the fairway, the rough is of no worries so frankly this is one of the rare events that driving means nothing.  Last year was a perfect example, the winner Dustin Johnson missed the most fairways of anyone in the field (missed 20 of the 60 attempts) but on the other end of the spectrum, Johnson’s average drive of 279.5 yards was second longest.  So hitting it long does have it’s advantages.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• The same on hitting greens, since they are so large averaging 8,000 square feet, you can see that in the field, the average player only misses three greens per round. Last year Dustin Johnson missed only 6 greens and ranked T2nd.  Still the king of stats is putting.  With the biggest greens on the PGA Tour, putting is important.  Last year in 54 holes Johnson was T2nd in putting taking only 92 putts but what is really amazing is the fact that 11 of the last 15 winners at Kapalua finished either first or second in putting (8 led that category).  Going a step further, look at the most recent champions on putting from three feet, five feet and ten feet in.  Last year Johnson was perfect 32 for 32 on putts of three feet and in.  On putts of five feet and in, out of 46 attempts he missed only two and of putts inside 10 feet he only missed six of 55 attempts.
• in 2012 Steve Stricker won and was perfect 44 of 44 on putts of three feet in.  On putts of five feet and in, Stricker was 56 of 58 and inside ten feet 62 of 71.
• In 2011 Jonathan Byrd won and was a perfect 39 of 39 on putts of three feet in. Putts from five feet and in he only missed one of 56.  On putts ten feet and in he was 66 of 73, the best in the field.
• And in 2010 Geoff Ogilvy was nothing sort of near perfect as he made all 55 of 55 putts from five feet and in and only missed four putts from ten feet and in, it’s very hard to be better than that.
•  We saw it last year on how Kapalua is a very unpredictable place. The Plantation Course was built on the side of a mountain and is exposed to winds off the ocean, so if they get winds of 20 and 30 mph, which is common the scores will climb. Perfect example of this was in 1999 when benign conditions the first three rounds brought the scoring average down to 70.58. But in the final round, trade winds came and the scoring average was 2 and a half strokes higher at 73.00. In 2000 all four days were played in high winds with scoring average being 73.03, while in 2006 a combination 74.893 scoring average made it the fourth toughest course played on the PGA Tour in 2006. But the last five years have seen big changes as conditions couldn’t of been better and the scoring average have gone down to the point that Kapalua is one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour over the last five years.  Last year with the poor weather and some wind the course still played under par at 72.111 but wasn’t the easiest as it was ranked 32nd out of 43 courses.  So what does this year look?  According to the ten day forecast on Weather.com it’s going to rain on Friday and Saturday, then be perfect on Sunday and Monday.  The really good news, winds won’t be that bad at around 10 mph each day, but we all know that late in the afternoon it could blow a bit more.
• One important thing to look at is a player that ended last year strong. Look at past champions, Jonathan Byrd won the last event of 2010 and then won at Kapalua. Geoff Ogilvy played well in Australia the month before he won at Kapalua and Daniel Chopra won late in 2007 before he won again at Kapalua in 2008. So lets look at the field and find someone that has won lately? Zach Johnson won the Northwestern Mutual last month, beating Tiger Woods in a playoff.  Adam Scott in the three tournaments in Australia won twice and was runner-up once.  In the fall events Jimmy Walker won the Frys, Webb Simpson won in Vegas, Ryan Moore won the CIMB Classic, Dustin Johnson won the WGC-HSBC, Chris Kirk won the McGladrey. Harris English won in Mexico and English along with Matt Kuchar won the Franklin Templeton Shootout so we have a lot of hot players in the field.
• Experience at Kapalua is important and could play a part.  Of the 30 in the field, 13 are playing for the first time and five have played only once at Kapalua.  So of the other 12 you may find your winner.

Here is a look at those that have played the most at Kapalua in the field:

6 starts – Zach Johnson

5 starts – Adam Scott

4 starts – Dustin Johnson

4 starts – Matt Kuchar

3 starts – Woody Austin

3 starts – Bill Haas

2 starts – Brian Gay

2 starts – Martin Laird

2 starts – Ryan Moore

2 starts – Webb Simpson

2 starts – Brandt Snedeker

2 starts – Boo Weekley