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BlogSony Open in Hawaii Preview and Picks

Sony Open in Hawaii

January 9 – 12, 2014

Waialae C.C.

Honolulu, Ha.

Par: 70 / Yardage:

Purse: $5.6 million

with $1,008,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Russell Henley

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 8 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with three players from the top-ten: #2 Adam Scott, #7 Zach Johnson & #8 Matt Kuchar, .   The other top 50 players are #13 Jason Dufner, #17 Jordan Spieth, #23 Hideki Matsuyama, #47 Jimmy Walker and #48 Harris English.

The field includes 15 of the Top 25 on the FedEx point standings for 2014.  Those players are #2 Jimmy Walker, #3 Harris English, #6 Chris Kirk, #7 Zach Johnson, #9 Brian Stuard, #11 Jordan Spieth, #12 Scott Brown, #13 Charles Howell III, #14 Vijay Singh, #15 Briny Baird, #16 Tim Clark, @18 Chris Stroud, #19 Ryo Ishikaw, #20 Brian Gay and #22 Jeff Overton.

The field includes 14 players in the top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list.  Those players are #4 Harris English, #5 Jimmy Walker, #6 Zach Johnson, #7 Chris Kirk, #11 Jordan Spieth, #12 Brian Stuard, #14 Charles Howell III, #15 Scott Brown, #16 Ryo Ishikawa, #17 Vijay Singh, #18 Tim Clark, #19 Briny Baird and #24 Brian Gay.

The field includes 9 past champions: Russell Henley (2013), Johnson Wagner (2012), Mark Wilson (2011), Ryan Palmer (2010), Zach Johnson (2009), K.J. Choi (2008), Paul Goydos (2007), Vijay Singh (2005) and Jerry Kelly (2002).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Sony Open in Hawaii field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Sony Open in Hawaii in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Sony Open in Hawaii

Player Hyundai Tournament of Champions Nedbank Golf Challenge OHL Classic at Mayakoba McGladrey Classic WGC-HSBC Champions CIMB Classic Shriners Hospitals Frys.com Open
Zach Johnson
(146.67 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T16
(11.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T40
(3.33)
DNP
 
Harris English
(112.33 pts)
T11
(39)
DNP
 
Win
(44)
T27
(7.67)
DNP
 
T7
(18.33)
T40
(3.33)
DNP
 
Jordan Spieth
(111 pts)
2
(100)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
17
(11)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jimmy Walker
(107 pts)
T21
(29)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T46
(1.33)
6
(20)
T12
(12.67)
Win
(44)
Chris Kirk
(91 pts)
T16
(34)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(44)
DNP
 
T25
(8.33)
T36
(4.67)
DNP
 
Scott Brown
(90.67 pts)
T24
(26)
DNP
 
T16
(11.33)
T4
(26.67)
DNP
 
72
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
T3
(30)
Matt Kuchar
(78.33 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(18.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jason Dufner
(75.33 pts)
5
(70)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T34
(5.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Charles Howell III
(75 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T6
(20)
T27
(7.67)
DNP
 
T7
(18.33)
T5
(23.33)
T33
(5.67)
Brian Gay
(64.33 pts)
T13
(37)
DNP
 
T45
(1.67)
T4
(26.67)
T46
(1.33)
T47
(1)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Adam Scott
(60 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Brendon De Jonge
(54.67 pts)
DNP
 
5
(46.67)
DNP
 
T16
(11.33)
DNP
 
T53
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Chris Stroud
(53.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T3
(30)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T3
(30)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Boo Weekley
(52 pts)
26
(24)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T22
(9.33)
T11
(13)
T33
(5.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Ken Duke
(47 pts)
T16
(34)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T46
(1.33)
DNP
 
T15
(11.67)
DNP
 
D.A. Points
(44.67 pts)
T28
(22)
T16
(22.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T68
(0)
T68
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jeff Overton
(43.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T23
(9)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T16
(11.33)
T9
(15)
T16
(11.33)
Ryo Ishikawa
(43 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T66
(0)
DNP
 
T2
(33.33)
T21
(9.67)
Briny Baird
(42.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
T2
(33.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T36
(4.67)
T26
(8)
Brian Stuard
(41.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
2
(33.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T15
(11.67)
T58
(0)
Tim Clark
(41 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T36
(4.67)
T2
(33.33)
DNP
 
T31
(6.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T72
(0)
Michael Thompson
(39.33 pts)
T16
(34)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T50
(0.33)
T35
(5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Vijay Singh
(39 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T23
(9)
2
(33.33)
Woody Austin
(37 pts)
T13
(37)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T40
(3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Hideki Matsuyama
(36.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-1.67)
T25
(8.33)
DNP
 
T3
(30)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Sony Open in Hawaii

Player Hyundai Tournament of Champions Nedbank Golf Challenge OHL Classic at Mayakoba McGladrey Classic WGC-HSBC Champions CIMB Classic Shriners Hospitals Frys.com Open
Edward Loar
(-13.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Bud Cauley
(-10 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
71
(0)
Scott Verplank
(-10 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Fred Funk
(-8.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-1.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Paul Goydos
(-6.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T72
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Bronson La’Cassie
(-6.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Bobby Gates
(-6.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Andrew Loupe
(-6.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
Troy Merritt
(-6.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
David Lingmerth
(-6.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T64
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

*Since 1999 when it was placed behind the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, the Sony got an added boost in that most of the field of the Hyundai made the short flight to Honolulu to play this event.  But that trend seems to be changing.  In 2007 32 of the 34 Hyundai participants stuck around for the Sony while in 2008, 22 of the 31 Hyundai participants stayed.  In 2009 the trend of leaving after the Hyundai continued as only 26 of the 33 TofC players showed up at Waialae.  In 2010  only 20 of the 28 Hyundai players made the trip and people started wondering.  In 2011 it was 23 of the 33 from Kapalua, while in 2012 only 20 of the 28 showed up.  Last year 19 of 30 went while this year only 18 of the 30 are going.

Of course there are a lot of conspiracy thoughts on this, but the bottom line is that players are making so much money that there is no need to stay in Hawaii.  For many the Hyundai is very special with the players staying free of charge at the Ritz Carlton, families usually coming over for some R&R and with last place getting $61,000 there is really no need for many players to stick around.  Too bad.

Now one of the important items for fantasy golfers to think about, since the Hyundai moved to Kapalua in 1999, nine of the 15 Sony winners participated in Kapalua the week before, the last one being Johnson Wagner in 2012.  So despite the trend going away from this, the odds and common sense says to look for the winner to be a player from Kapalua.  Oh, defending champion Russell Henley finished 27th at Maui on Monday with only three players with scores worst than Henley’s 3 under finish.

Here is a look at the Hyundai winners since 1999 and how they did at the Sony:

  • 2013 Hyundai winner Dustin Johnson withdrew after the first round at the Sony
  • 2012 Hyundai winner Steve Stricker finished T38th at the Sony
  • 2011 Hyundai winner Jonathan Byrd finished T34th at the Sony
  • 2010 Hyundai winner Geoff Ogilvy didn’t play at the Sony
  • 2009 Hyundai winner Geoff Ogilvy finished T32nd at the Sony
  • 2008 Hyundai winner Daniel Chopra finished T32nd at the Sony
  • 2007 Hyundai winner Vijay Singh finished T34th at the Sony
  • 2006 Hyundai winner Stuart Appleby finished T7th at the Sony
  • 2005 Hyundai winner Stuart Appleby didn’t play at the Sony
  • 2004 Hyundai winner Stuart Appleby missed the cut at the Sony
  • 2003 Hyundai winner Ernie Els won the next week at the Sony
  • 2002 Hyundai winner Sergio finished T40th at the Sony
  • 2001 Hyundai winner Jim Furyk finished 4th at the Sony
  • 2000 Hyundai winner Tiger Woods didn’t play at the Sony
  • 1999 Hyundai winner David Duval finished 3rd at the Sony

*Talking about players not showing up, it’s looking like PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem could become very frustrated over the field of the WGC-Accenture Match Play.  For that event to really work out having all the top-64 players show up is imperative.  We can now see that this event may start to suffer from marquee players taking that week off.  Adam Scott announced at Kapalua that he was playing at the Sony, but taking the next 8 weeks off returning at the Honda the week after the Match Play.  Justin Rose told James Corrigan of the Telegraph that he is seriously thinking of missing the Match play.

We just have to think that Phil Mickelson will need another “family vacation” right around the time of the Match Play.  Finchem will get a break now that Tiger Woods girlfriend Lyndsey Vonn has announced that she is out of the Olympics.  Speculation was that Woods may find watching Vonn ski more appealing than going to Tucson for a possible one round and out event.  Woods has not made it past the second round since winning in 2008 so you have to think that watching Vonn go for the Gold would of been more appealing than a day or two of frustration in Tucson.  So Woods will have no real excuse for missing the Match Play.  Still  you never know which other marquee name will be a no-show, how about Ernie Els.  He has been very critical of Dove Mountain and hasn’t made it through the second day for the last four years, so even though he hasn’t said anything, he could also take the week off

With more players getting richer and pickier, any tournament that isn’t a major is fair game, even now World Golf Championships.  This is a problem that has hit a lot of regular tour events, but if you get five or six marquee names not show up Finchem will have a problem that needs to be addressed.  It’s doubtful if he can force anyone to play if they don’t want to, but there are other avenues like witholding releases to play in non-tour events, for his tour but for someone like a Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods and Justin Rose it’s a tricky proposition.

*I just love Butch Harmon.  I have know him for over two decades now and I have learned that no matter what he says may not be the “gossip”.  Case in point, for the last two years he has been telling me that it’s time to shut it down and enjoy things with wife Christy.  At 70 he has enjoyed success that he would never have thought he could ever achieve when he returned from fighting in Viet Nam.<BR>There is no two ways about it, no matter what anybody says, if I wanted a swing guru it would be Harmon.  Not that he is the best in the swing, it’s more about that and what he instills between the ears.

The point is for the last two years he has said it’s time to shut it down and not take on any new players.  So what does Butch do?  Taken on a new player in Rickie Fowler, who has been without a coach and playing pretty rudder-less since his swing guru Barry McDonnell died in May of 2011.  I laugh in reading that Fowler and Harmon are now a team, guess if you were going to “retire” you would add that one special player and Fowler could be the one.  Look for him to start at Torrey Pines in two weeks and knowing how Butch operates Fowler will be ready to go and start playing well right off the bat.

*Now we don’t usually look at Monday qualifying but everyone ask’s me whatever has happened to Tadd Fujikawa.  He was the darling of this event in 2007, an Hawaiian kid that was small in size due to being born premature.  He qualified and played in the U.S. Open at 15 in 2006 and went into the final round of the 2007 Sony Open in contention but finished T20th.  Six months later he turned pro at 16 and has struggled ever since, not making it on either the PGA Tour or Nationwide Tour and has played the Hooters and other mini tours.  He has been injured with thumb problems and just struggle with his game.  He couldn’t make it on either the Web.Com Tour or in Europe and not even in Japan.  So he has played in mini tour events around the country, just trying to get his game back.<BR>The days of him getting a sponsor exemption into his hometown event are over and he had to qualify again.  The frustration continued as he off to a bad start with a bogey on his first hole, then double bogeyed his fourth hole , going on to shooting 74 which was way down the list.  Derek Tolan was the leader, getting into the Sony after shooting 75 at Turtle Bay on the North Shore.

Waialae Course information:

  • Course was designed by Seth Raynor and Charles Banks and was opened in 1925. It has gone through a series of changes, first by Bob Baldock in 1966, then Arthur Jack Snyder in 1969, then Robert Nelson and Rodney Wright in 1984, then by Arnold Palmer & Ed Seay in 1991 and finally by Desmond Muirhead in 1992.  To make things even tougher Waialae hired Rick Smith in the late ’90s to develop some more renovations for the future.  Smith came in to return the course to the original design that Seth Raynor came up with 78 years ago.
  • One of the big changes that was made, which didn’t affect the course but did affect the tournament, came in 1999.  That’s when tournament and PGA Tour officials moved up the tees on the 1st and 13th holes and changed them from par 5s to 4s. Even though it doesn’t make the course easier or tougher, it was a perception that the course was harder and scores were going up, even though that wasn’t the case.
  • The average green size at Waialae is 7,500 square feet and the course has 79 bunkers.  Nine of the holes have water on them but for the touring pros only three of those holes are affected.  For tournament week the nines are reversed so that the par3 8th hole, which runs along the Pacific, becomes the 17th and is shown on television.
  • One other thing about Waialae: It’s been the only home of the Sony Open since 1965.  The only other courses with a better track record on the PGA Tour is Augusta National, which has been the home of the Masters since 1934, Pebble Beach, which has been the home of the AT&T since 1947, Colonial, which has been the home of the Crowne Plaza Invitational since 1948 and Doral, which has had a PGA Tour event every year since 1962.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sony Open in Hawaii

Key stat for the winner:

The PGA Tour is still in Hawaii for the Sony Open.  Played at Waialae C.C. it’s a fun course for the pros on nice day as it only has only one defense, the wind.  If it blows scores are reasonable, but without winds scores go low and someone shooting 59 comes into the equation.  The weather was Ok in Maui last week but it’s not going to carry over this week at the Sony according to weatherman at Weather.com. There is rain in the forecast everyday, along with the lack of wind it could render Waialae very easy.  Wind is the reason that the fairways become more narrow, last year only 48.03% of them were hit at Waialae making the course the second hardest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour for 2013.  So with the lack of wind and rain making things soft, look for low scoring with a possibility of having a couple sub-60 rounds. One last thing, all of this gives shorter hitters a better chance.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • The first thing to realize is that Waialae is the complete opposite of the Plantation Course which held the Hyundai last week.  There driving accuracy meant nothing as the Plantation course has the easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour.  But this week is a different story, each year Waialae is one of the hardest driving courses on tour in 2008 it was 3rd, in ’09 it was 7th, it was the toughest in 2010 and 12th in 2011.  In the last two years it has been 2nd, so to win at Waialae, accuracy is important.  So it helps to drive the ball straight so look for those that hit it straight like Boo Weekley, Zach Johnson, Tim Clark, Ryan Moore and Heath Slocum.  Looking at that list funny how past champions like Russell Henley, Mark Wilson, Zach Johnson, Paul Goydos, David Toms and Jerry Kelly have ranked high in this stat in the last decade.
  • Another important stat to look at is total driving which combines distance with accuracy, look for the leaders in this stat that are playing at the Sony to do well.
  • Hitting greens is important, on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the most important give hitting greens a 7.  Still you can’t dismiss this stat since 1997, 13 of the 17 champions have been in the top-ten in this stat and only two have been worst that 15th.
  • Putting is another important stat, but like hitting greens I give it a 7 on a scale of 1 to 10.  What I found interesting in this stat was making putts over ten feet, look for those types to do well.  In diving into Shotlink stats on PGA Tour.Com in 2014 Ryan Palmer, Sang-Moon Bae, John Senden, Ken Duke, Jimmy Walker, Brian Gay and John Huh are all in the top-ten and are playing the Sony.  Last year’s champion Russell Henley was 2nd in putts made between 10 and 15 feet and was 6th in putts made between 15 and 20 feet.
  • Look at those that are good scramblings, again historically winners are high on this stat and the course demands good shotmaking and scrabling.  In diving into more Shotlink stats on PGA Tour.Com Charles Howell III leads the list for 2014, with Matt Kuchar another top-ten on the list.
  • More stats that is important is picking a guy that makes lots of birdies and is high on the par breaker list. Jimmy Walker ranks among the best in both stats.
  • Last but not least the par 4s at Waialae are U.S. Open caliber, they are tough and rank on top of the tour as the toughest in golf.  Again in looking at the winners going back to 2000 when changes were made to reduce par from 72 to 70, every champion was between 2 under and 10 under. Last year Russell Henley was first in this stat playing the par 4s in an incredible 17 under.  In looking at who is playing the par 4s the best on tour in 2014 those in the top-ten playing Sony include Jeff Overton, Harris English, Zach Johnson, Jimmy Walker, Brian Harman, Charles Howell III, Boo Weekley, Ryo Ishikawa and Matt Kuchar.

 

Who to watch for at the Sony Open in Hawaii

Best Bets:

Charles Howell III

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T3 T2 T68 T5 4 T69 T2 T53 T3 T27 T15 T4

He is the PGA Tour poster child for underachievement and could break out of this funk this week. There is no better event that he plays in, has finished T3rd last year, T2nd in 2012, T5th in 2010 and 4th in 2009. That doesn’t include another 2nd and 3rd place finish so in his last nine Sony starts has been in the top-five, six times. Guess that makes him the favorite.

Zach Johnson

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT T54 T57 T12 Win T32 T47 CUT

Has joined a rare club of players that have won the Hyundai and Sony. Now he is looking to join Ernie Els as the only player to win them back to back. Can he do it, damn right he can.

Jimmy Walker

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T26 CUT 4 CUT T32 T61 CUT

Has been a Jeckel and Hyde at this event, but did finish 4th here in 2011 and has all of the key stats to do well

Best of the rest:

Tim Clark

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
2 T2 T25 T12

Does well at Waialae, can also make a lot of birdies.

Adam Scott

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT T2 T18 T20 CUT

He was the forgotten one from the Hyundai. He played well and I can see him carrying over the good play and winning this week.

Matt Kuchar

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T5 T5 CUT CUT 65 CUT CUT CUT T4

Another player that has Waialae pegged, finished 5th here in his last two starts. Comes over after a good finish at Kapalua shooting 75 in the final round.

Jordan Spieth

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

Should watch him, was hot at Kapalua and should also contend this week. Course is up his alley and look for him to play well.

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

Solid contenders

Jason Dufner

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT 56 T20 CUT T13 T41

Had a feeling last week that he could be underrated and he was finishing 5th. Look for another good week out of him, especially with the rain.

Retief Goosen

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
4 T56 T10 T20

Should remember that the last time he played here in 2010 did finish 4th. Don’t know if he is tip-top yet.

Harris English

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T9 T67

Shouldn’t forget about him, he makes lots of birdies, plays well on the par 4s and good long putter.

Brian Gay

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T31 T6 T13 T25 T5 T40 T54 T33 T36 T50 T23

T13th at Hyundai and has had three top-tens at Sony. You never know when he is going to pounce and win a tournament, this event fits the mold of the others that Gay has won at.

Long shots that could come through:

Chris Kirk

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T5 T38 T30

Did finish T5th last year, was T16th at Kapalua.

Vijay Singh

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T20 T46 T57 T52 T45 T34 6 Win T10 T20

Past champion that plays well here, still think he has a win left in him and he could get it here.

Justin Hicks

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T15

Finished T15th last year, looking to make a name for himself in 2014.

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