BlogWaste Management Phoenix Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

* So I bet that everyone of you picked Scott Stallings to win last week in San Diego.  Didn’t see this coming, but Stallings has the pedigree to win. Stalling’s has not made the cut in two previous Farmers start, he hasn’t had a top-20 in his last 15 starts going back to his T2nd in last year’s FedEx St. Jude Classic. So he was on nobody’s list to make the top-ten, yet alone win. Even more unusual, in 88 career PGA Tour starts Stallings has missed more cuts (46) than he has made (41), but does have 10 top-ten finishes including 3 wins.  That puts him in rarefied air joining these folks with less than 100 PGA Tour starts but three or more wins (Rory McIlroy 6 wins in 71 starts, Keegan Bradley 3 wins in 82 starts).

For years the PGA Tour has had a slogan, “These guys are good” and it’s very correct when you figure that on any given week just about everyone with a PGA Tour card can win and Stallings has done it three times already.  We are seeing that happening on the PGA Tour as in 2014 Jimmy Walker, Chris Kirk, Harris English, Patrick Reed and now Stallings have surprised us with victories.  All three of them were outside the top-64 in the world rankings and now are well inside and will all play in the Accenture Match Play Championship.  The point is that I may give you a dozen or so guys I think will win that week, but on any given week just about anyone in the field could have a career week and win, you just don’t know.  That is the tricky thing on picking winners, it’s really hard.

* The Tour returns to Phoenix and one of the biggest parties of the year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.  It may be SuperBowl week but they really pack them in.  Last year 525,821 specters went through the turnstiles including just over 179,000 on Saturday.  It seems that they all go over to either the big pavilion which has been a mainstay of the tournament since it started or the 16th hole, golf’s version of the Roman Coliseum.  The 16th hole could be the wackiest place on the PGA Tour, a combination of true golf fans wanting to see some great golf along with a lot of others that wear out their arms hoisting their favorite adult beverage.  The hole is completely surrounded by bleachers and hospitality tents, giving it that gladiator feel to it.  It’s become such a mainstay that organizers are thinking of just making the façade a permanent fixture next year and having it stay up year round.

Course information:

Played at TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Az.

Par:  71 / Yardage: 7,216

In 2013 the South course was the 40th hardest course on the PGA Tour (only three other courses were easier) playing to a 68.954 average.

The TPC of Scottsdale was designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, with Howard Twitty and Jim Colbert serving as player consultants.  The course opened in 1986 and has some interesting features like desert between the holes and fairways with many plants from the surrounding area. The layout also features mounding for spectators. The course can easily accommodate over 100,000 spectators, last year just over 179,000 showed up for Saturday’s third round.  The average green size is 6,770 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour. The course has 72 bunkers and six water hazards.

Surrounded by spectacular mountain views, the course was designed specifically to host the Phoenix Open and the aforementioned mounding promises an excellent view to all of the  the 500,000+ in the galleries. Hole No. 16 will always be remembered as the site of Tiger Woods’ hole in one in 1998. Hole No. 17 will be remembered for the first and only hole in one on a par four during a PGA Tour event, which was recorded by Andrew Magee in 2001.

Golf’s DL injury report:

• Jordan Spieth, doesn’t know how he did it but on Friday at Torrey Pines on the back nine his ankle started to bother him.  With the pain it prevented him from swinging the way he is use to and his game crumbled.  He was leading after the second round but rounds of 75-75 sent him spiraling down the leaderboard finishing T19th.  He wore tape and a modified ankle splint and after play on Sunday told reporters that he would go home to Dallas, work on his game and hopefully return to Pebble Beach next week.
• Phil Mickelson has seen this problem before, playing well and then he tweaks something.  Coming from a good finish in Abu Dhabi, Mickelson was ready to go for his hometown Buick Invitational.  Playing with long hitters Bubba Watson and Jason Day in the first round, Mickelson noticed that he was way behind them and about 15 yards less than normal.  In a practice round he felt that he tweaked a muscle in his back, but at the time it didn’t seem bad.  But the pain returned on Thursday and by Friday, fearing that he could get into bad habits by favoring it decided to withdraw.  Now Mickelson is talking with doctors and as of Monday is undecided on if he is going to play in both the Phoenix Open, which he is defending champion and AT&T Pebble Beach.  In a release Monday Night he is seeing a back specialist and says his facet joints have locked up.  He plans to fly to Scottsdale on Wednesday for the pro-am and see what happens. Mickelson is planning on not playing the Northern Trust or Match Play so it will be interesting to see what he does, I think he will not play.  He is headstrong to point out that he has the entire year and doesn’t want to get into any bad habits that could take weeks to work himself out of.
• Brandt Jobe, who hasn’t played since Wyndham and not able to meet his medical extension for 2014 was planning on playing in Phoenix.  He has been bothered with injuries the last ten years, the last was a herniated disc in 2012 which forced him to sit out a lot of events followed by shoulder surgery on his right shoulder in November.  No news other than he isn’t ready, look for him to possibly play at Pebble Beach next week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Those with a hot putter seem to dominate. Other than Vijay Singh’s victory in 2003, Kenny Perry in 2009, Hunter Mahan in 2010, Mark Wilson in 2011 and Kyle Stanley in 2012, every winner since 1997 has been in the Top-10 in putting, with eight of the winners being in the top five.  Last year Phil Mickelson was T10th in putts with 110, in 2007 Aaron Baddeley led with just 104 putts and was second in putts per greens hit.  Of late there has been a change in the trend, in 2009 Kenny Perry was T3rd in greens hit and T53rd in putting while 2010 Hunter Mahan was 1st in greens hit and T71st in putting, in 2011 Mark Wilson was 1st in greens hit and T39th in putting, while Kyle Stanley was 3rd in greens hit but T63rd in putting.  Last year Phil Mickelson had the best of both worlds, 1st in greens hit and T10th in putting.  No rhyme or reason for the change, still look for a good putter this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

One unimportant stat:  Even though the course is in the desert and it would seem that the long hitters would dominate, that isn’t the case.  Since 1997 only two of the last 14 champions have been in the

Top-10 of the driving distance stat and four of the winners were not in the Top-25.  In 2005 Phil Mickelson averaged 307.8 per drive and was 12th in the field while in 2006  J.B. Holmes drove it 308.0 yards and was 13th. In 2007 Baddeley followed the trend as he was 15th in driving distance at 296.6 So you don’t have to hit it long to win in Phoenix while in 2008 Holmes was 13th averaging 302.5 yards and Kenny Perry was 9th in 2009 with a 311.1 avearge, in 2010 Hunter Mahan was T33rd with a 294.3 average while in 2011 Mark Wilson was T68th with a 290.3 avearge.  In 2012 Kyle Stanley ranked 70th with a 287.6 average while in 2013 Mickelson was T12th with a 298.9 average  The key here is hitting it long doesn’t really help in winning.

Seven of the last 14 champions have had a Top-10 finish within three weeks before they won the championship, so look for someone that is playing well to win.  In 2009 Kenny Perry finished T6th at Kapalua just three weeks before the Phoenix Open, but Hunter Mahan was not playing well leading up to the 2010 event.  In 2011 Mark Wilson won just two weeks before the event at the Sony Open in Hawaii amd om 2012 Kyle Stanley lost a playoff the week before winning at Phoenix.  Again no rhyme or reason but last year Mickelson finished T37th at the Humana and T51st the week before at the Farmers.

Players can’t be afraid of a lot of people watching, considering as many as 180,000 will be in attendance over the weekend.

Players must hit lots of greens and make lots of birdies. In the last 17 years the winners have averaged hitting 72% of the greens and averaged 23 birdies for the week.

One last important fact is that birdies have to be made on par 4s.  This is one of those events in which scoring is lower on the par 4s than the par 5s.  Since 1997, 10  of the 17 champions have done better, last year Phil Mickelson played the par 5s in 9 under while playing the par 4s in 10 under.

While a good portion of the United States is enduring the Polar Vortex, the cold weather won’t hit Phoenix.  Look for each day with temperatures in the mid-70s which just a slight chance of rain on Saturday.