BlogWho will win at Phoenix on Sunday

Things you need to know for Sunday’s final round in Phoenix:

So who is leading?

• First and second round leader Bubba Watson was able to muster up a round of 68 and goes into the final round with a two shot lead over Kevin Stadler and three over Ryan Moore, Harris English and Hideki Matsuyama.  Watson, who hasn’t won in almost 22 months since his Masters victory.  This will be the first time Watson has gone into the final round with the lead, the last was back in June when he co-led with Graham Delaet and Charley Hoffman.  He shot a final round 70 and finished 4th, two shots back.  In that event he had the lead going into the 16th hole were he hit a poor tee shot on the par 3 into the water, made triple bogey which placed him out of the running.

How is Watson as a front-runner?

• Watson has a shaky record when leading or co-leading going into the final round.  Along with the Travelers he has gone into the final round six times with the lead and only came through once, at the 2011 Zurich Classic.  Watson shot a final round 69, the only time he has broken par with the lead.  As you can see in this link, he shot a final round 70 at the 2013 Travelers to finish 4th, final round 74 to finish 2nd at the 2012 WGC-Cadillac, 74 at the 2011 Deutsche Bank, 72 at the 2008 Arnold Palmer Invitational and 72 at the 2007 Shell Houston Open.  Now if there is a ray of good news, last year in the final round of the WM Phoenix Open he shot 64 to finish 15th.  In seven previous Phoenix Opens he has two top-ten finishes, the best in 2012 when he finished T5th.

Anyone make a big move in the third round?

• The biggest move was from Brendan Steele, who started the day T48th, his third round 62 was his career best round and moved him into a T6th, four shots back of Watson.
• Some other great rounds were shot by Ryan Moore, who had a bogey free 64 as he played the final nine in six under.  2010 champion Hunter Mahan shot 65, his round was impressive for it’s roller-coaster feel as he had ten birdies, two bogeys, a double bogey and only five pars

So what about Kevin Stadler?

• His third round 67 was impressive because he finished the round making birdie on five of his last six holes.  For the week he has played the final six holes in ten under, something to look at on Sunday.

Anybody stand out statistically supreme?

• It’s remarkable but nobody stands out.  Yes Watson leads in driving distance with a 337.4 average, but he is T19th in fairways hit, T16th in greens hit and 9th in strokes gained putting.  The one thing that does stand out is his approach shot proximity to the hole, he averaged 28 feet, 11 inches to lead.  Of the others close to the lead nothing else stands out.

So our we going to have another unusual winner?

• Just look at 2014, other than Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Ryan Moore, Harris English and Zach Johnson the winners have been obscure including the last three Jimmy Walker at Sony, Partick Reed at Humana and Scott Stallings at Farmers.  Now the PGA Tour seems to preach parody and with the leaderboard the way it is we can see this continue.  Watch for players like Harris English, Hideki Matsuyama, Brendan Steele, Pat Perez, Greg Chalmers or even Graham DeLaet come through and win.

Below is a list of the top-18 players on the leader board going to 8 under showing how they have done of late to see who has played the best: