BlogWho will win at Pebble on Sunday

Things you need to know for Sunday’s final round at Pebble:

So what about this weather?

• It’s really amazing, the Monterey Peninsula and all of California have not had any rain all year, but bring a big golf tournament to town and look what happens.  The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am has a reputation of always bringing rain, in the good old days of the old Bing Crosby pro-am it always seem to be plagued with nasty weather, so bad they called it “Crosby Weather”.  One year, 1996 it was so bad that they couldn’t get the tournament going and it was cancelled.  The next year rain fell and they couldn’t get the tournament finished until August, yes August.  Since 1997 three AT&T’s have only been played at 54 holes, the last in 2009 which is the last time this event had any weather delays.

So what happened, in my preview I said the weather was suppose to be good?  

• On Monday the weather forecast was for a near perfect week but things changed late Tuesday with a phenomena called a “atmospheric river” or “the Pineapple Express” in which patterns changed bringing a concentrated band of moisture with rain and wind on Friday.  It shocked a lot of forecasters but was a big relief to city, county and state officials who were in the middle of formulating long term drought plans.  It’s a shame, it’s a very small amount of rain in the scheme of things for a area that needs a lot more but was enough to play havoc on this year’s AT&T.

So what’s the forecast for Sunday?

• The same folks that didn’t see this problem are calling for a poor day on Sunday with a lot of rain and some winds.  But in looking at some of the radar maps, they may be wrong, it looks to me like the worst will be over by noon with the sun popping up for the afternoon.

So who is leading?

• The good news is most of the players completed the third round, but there are still 12 players that need to finish up early on Sunday before the final round is started.  No matter what Jimmy Walker will lead by at least six shots at 13 under going into the final round after shooting 66 at Pebble, 69 at Spyglass and 67 at Monterey Peninsula.  Over the course of 54 holes Walker has only made one bogey all week, that coming on Saturday on the 5th hole.
• In second place at 7 under is Hunter Mahan and Hunter Mahan, Wilkinson shot 67-72-69 while Mahan shot 68-68-72.  In fourth place at 6 under is Richard H. Lee who had rounds of 65-72-72.

So what did the top-three have in common?

• In our preview we said how much luck of the draw plays an important role in this tournament and you can see it with the leaders, the top-three played on Thursday, which was a calm day at Pebble Beach, then played at Spyglass on Friday, which produced a lot of wind and rain while on Saturday it was really blowing.  So for Walker, Wilkinson and Mahan they played on Friday starting on the 10th tee at Spyglass. So the three had the advantage of playing inbetween thick trees which protected them from the winds that plagued those playing at Pebble and Monterey Peninsula.  The same with Saturday, the three were lucky to be on the tree protected holes of Monterey Peninsula at the height of the wind and by the time they got to the ocean holes the wind had subsided.  So we can say that Walker, Mahan and Wilkinson got the best of the pairings.

So who got the worst?

• Those that played at Spyglass on Thursday, followed by Monterey Peninsula on Friday and Pebble on Saturday.  Look at the players in the top-eleven that had to play at Pebble on Saturday.  The closets to Walker is Blake Adams and Ryan Palmer who are 8 back, they shot 72 on Saturday at Pebble.  Those T11th, 9 back, Dustin Johnson shot 70 the best round on Saturday at Pebble.  Michael Thompson shot 72 and Brendon Todd shot 73.  Also at 4 under that played at Pebble was Jordan Spieth.  Now when CBS signed off at 6PM (east coast time), Spieth just made bogey at 6 and at 8 under was just three back of Walker who was at 11 under.  Walker played his back nine at Monterey Peninsula at 2 under while Spieth had to play the tough ocean holes of Pebble in the wind.  He bogeyed 8, then double bogeyed 9, bogeyed 13 and 14 before ending his day with a birdie at 15.  But the damage was done, Spieth comes back on Sunday with three holes to play at Pebble and is nine shots back of Walker with no chance at winning.

So do we just give the trophy to Walker?

• Just about, he’s had a great year and I can’t see him blowing a 6 shot lead.  Of course anything can happen, even in the wind and Walker was the first to amount that six times he has played the AT&T he has never encountered bad weather at Pebble.  So who knows, maybe if the weather is not that great he could have a problem.  Remember the U.S. Open in 2010 at Pebble when Dustin Johnson led by three.  He had won the AT&T that year and in 2009 and many thought that he would have a walk in the park.  On a windy afternoon Johnson had problems starting on the second hole making a triple bogey, he double three and bogey four and was out of it.  He went on to shot 82 and finished T8th.
• To show you how anything can happen in the final round, the first AT&T I ever attended was in 1976.  Jack Nicklaus went into the final round with a one shot lead.  I remember going off to dinner in Carmel and everyone was wondering why they just didn’t give Nicklaus the trophy with his great record at Pebble.  On Sunday Nicklaus got off to a terrible start, shot 82 his highest round with the third round lead and finished T18th 10 shots back of Ben Crenshaw.  I will never forget after the round, Nicklaus did his interviews and took a cart to the 17th tee where he was to meet a helicopter to take him to San Francisco to catch a flight to Japan.  It was just outside of the ABC trucks, I was working for them that week and I got to talk with Nicklaus.  He great, I couldn’t believe he was so nice for a man who just shot 82 to blow a tournament but even with the poor final round he was great to the half dozen of us that joined him for the wait for the copter to come.  He told us “that’s why you play 72 holes, you don’t win a tournament based on 54 holes, you have to finish it off.”  How right he was.

So who can make life tough for Walker in the final round?

• You have to think that if it’s just raining and no wind, someone could shot a 63 on Thursday.  I have to think that’s on the minds of Phil Mickelson and Hunter Mahan.  They along with Kevin Na and Pat Perez could do that, if they post a number it could make things tough on Walker.  Still I think if Walker can cruise around in 70 it’s his to win.

Below is a list of the top-17 players on the leader board going to 3 under showing how they have done of late to see who has played the best: