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BlogPuerto Rico Open Preview and Picks

Puerto Rico Open

March 6 – 9, 2014

Trump International Puerto Rico

Rio Grande,, Puerto Rico

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,506

Purse: $3.5 Million

with $630,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Scott Brown

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 7 of the top 100 in the latest Official World Rankings, no one from the 65: #70 Brooks Koepka,  #81 Chris Stroud, #82 Ryo Ishikawa, #85 Michael Thompson, #90 Matt Jones, #92 Chesson Hadley and #95 Tim Clark.

The field includes 2 of the top 25 on the FedEx point standings for 2014.  Those players are #13 Brian Stuard and #25 Chris Stroud.

The field includes 2 players in the top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list.  Those players are #14 Brian Stuard and #23 Chris Stroud.

The field includes four of the five different champions: Scott Brown (2013), George McNeill (2012), Michael Bradley (2011 & ’09) and Derek Lamely (2010).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Puerto Rico field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Puerto Rico in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Puerto Rico.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Puerto Rico Open

Player Honda Classic Tshwane Open WGC Accenture Northern Trust AT&T Pebble Joburg Open Phoenix Open Dubai Desert Farmers Qatar Masters Humana Abu Dhabi Sony Open
Rafael Cabrera-Bello
(92.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T64
(0)
DNP DNP T41
(6)
DNP T3
(60)
DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP
George McNeill
(91.33 pts)
T12
(38)
DNP DNP T6
(60)
T52
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Emiliano Grillo
(87.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T28
(14.67)
DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP 74
(0)
DNP T31
(6.33)
DNP
Brooks Koepka
(82.33 pts)
T33
(17)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T3
(60)
DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
William McGirt
(75.33 pts)
T71
(0)
DNP DNP T6
(60)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP DNP DNP T76
(0)
DNP T46
(1.33)
Brian Stuard
(74 pts)
T24
(26)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T53
(0)
DNP T28
(14.67)
DNP 5
(23.33)
DNP 6
(20)
Seung-Yul Noh
(69.67 pts)
T33
(17)
DNP DNP DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP DNP T48
(1.33)
T10
(26.67)
DNP T38
(4)
DNP T61
(0)
Alvaro Quiros
(67.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP T54
(0)
DNP T28
(14.67)
DNP T31
(6.33)
DNP
Chris Stroud
(65.33 pts)
T12
(38)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T20
(10)
Jhonattan Vegas
(49.33 pts)
T12
(38)
DNP DNP T40
(10)
DNP DNP T48
(1.33)
DNP T59
(0)
DNP 84
(0)
DNP DNP
David Hearn
(44 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T58
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T38
(4)
Tyrone Van aswegen
(36.33 pts)
T24
(26)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP T25
(8.33)
DNP T61
(0)
Matt Jones
(35.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T59
(0)
T45
(3.33)
DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP T43
(4.67)
DNP T13
(12.33)
DNP DNP
Robert Streb
(32.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T32
(12)
DNP DNP DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP DNP DNP T68
(0)
Chesson Hadley
(29.33 pts)
T24
(26)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
T10
(26.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Michael Thompson
(28 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Tim Wilkinson
(28 pts)
T55
(0)
DNP DNP T65
(0)
T7
(36.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T46
(1.33)
Martin Flores
(26.33 pts)
T12
(38)
DNP DNP T70
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T25
(8.33)
DNP DNP
Jerry Kelly
(25.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T13
(12.33)
DNP 3
(30)
Brice Garnett
(25.33 pts)
T75
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP DNP DNP T75
(0)
DNP T48
(0.67)
DNP T38
(4)
Robert Karlsson
(25.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP T54
(0)
DNP T8
(16.67)
DNP
Andres Romero
(23.33 pts)
T12
(38)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
T52
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T47
(2)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Morgan Hoffmann
(22.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T15
(23.33)
DNP T16
(22.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T65
(0)
Ben Crane
(20.33 pts)
69
(0)
DNP DNP 69
(0)
DNP DNP T42
(5.33)
DNP T68
(0)
DNP T9
(15)
DNP DNP
Michael Putnam
(18.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP 74
(0)
T35
(10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP T48
(0.67)
DNP T32
(6)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Puerto Rico Open

Player Honda Classic Tshwane Open WGC Accenture Northern Trust AT&T Pebble Joburg Open Phoenix Open Dubai Desert Farmers Qatar Masters Humana Abu Dhabi Sony Open
Tommy Gainey
(-43.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T70
(0)
Troy Matteson
(-40 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Danny Lee
(-26.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Max Homa
(-23.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Johnson Wagner
(-21.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T25
(8.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Ted Potter, Jr.
(-21 pts)
T41
(9)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Daniel Chopra
(-20 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
J.J. Henry
(-20 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T40
(10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T82
(0)
DNP DNP
Alex Aragon
(-20 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Stephen Ames
(-20 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Things you need to know about the Puerto Rico Open:

This will be the 7th Puerto Rico, the tournament got started in 2008.  This has always been a tournament about second tier players, giving opportunities to those that didn’t qualify for the WGC-Cadillac.  This is a perfect way for a bottom-tier player getting himself full status with a win.  Unfortunely the winner gets just about every adelaide that is given to a regular winner with the exception of one important invite, to the Masters.  Augusta won’t extend an invite to the winner in Puerto Rico this week.

Course information:

  • Trump International Golf Club – Puerto Rico
  • Rio Grande, Puerto Rico
  • 7,569 yards     Par 36-36–72
  • Course has a 77,7 rating and slope rating of 135 fron the championship tees. The course is public and also sells local memberships.
  • In 2013 Trump International was the 38th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 70.229 average (1.771 strokes under par).
  • Course is part of a 36 hole complex that was built in 2004 by Tom Kite.  The championship course, which is the lakes and ocean nines are used for the championship. The 18 hole is flat with 13 of the 18 holes having water in play for the professionals.  There are 62 bunkers and the greens are 6,000 square feet, which is average size.  Course has a special grass on it, SeaDwarf Paspaium which is a lot like Bermuda but can tolerate salt and takes a low qualify of water to survive.  The course is very tough for the average player while it’s very manageable for the pros that will play it this week.  Since the course has opened, it’s gotten the reputation as the best course in Puerto Rico.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Puerto Rico Open:

Key stat for the winner:

There is no rhyme or reason to winning this event.  Since it’s a second tier event it’s a combination of a PGA Tour and a Web.Com tour stop.  So there are no real favorites because there are no true marquee players that you know of.  One thing of the past winners, done of them achieved great success on the PGA Tour so this is for many just a stepping stone to get full time access to the PGA Tour.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Since last year was the first year that they used stats, hard to find what type of player wins.  So the key is to look at two things, first past results on this course and how they are playing going into the event.

Will a newcomer win this week?  Probably.  It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.

Does weather play a factor, yes.  Since the course is next to the ocean expect winds, some of them high.  So the winner needs to play well in windy conditions.  As for rain there won’t be any, temperatures in the mid-80 and frankly it ticks off a person like myself looking at a foot of snow that needs plowing.

Who to watch for at the Puerto Rico Open

Best Bets:

George McNeill

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T57 Win 5

Past champion that is playing solid golf this year with good finishes in his last two starts.

Brian Stuard

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T4 CUT

T4th last year, started out great at Sony and Humana, has tapered off a bit. Still of those in the field, think that he is playing the best overall.

Chris Stroud

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T18 T61 CUT

Highest ranked player in the field, played ok last year this could be a good breaking out for him.

Best of the rest:

Brooks Koepka

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

Watch him this week, he will contend and he could surprise all with a win this week.

David Hearn

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T8 T14

Played good last year in this event finishing T8th, also good finish, T6th, at Honda makes for the right combination for this week.

Alvaro Quiros

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T28

A staple from the European Tour, he hits it a long way which could be helpful for him this week. Look for a steady performance from him.

Jhonattan Vegas

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT T24

Looking to regain his form from winning the Humana, could be a good week for him doing that.

Solid contenders

Ryo Ishikawa

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T39 2

Has missed his last three cuts but still think that this could be a very good week for him, played well almost winning in 2012.

Scott Brown

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
Win T5

Defending champion hasn’t shown us much in 2014 but he does play good in Puerto Rico.

Andres Romero

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T6 T20

Has the explosive type of game that can break out and win at any time, course is perfect for his game.

William McGirt

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T14

Looking to bounce back from Northern Trust, could still have some juice in his game.

Long shots that could come through:

Fabian Gomez

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T2 T7

Type of guy that can win here, has two top-tens in two starts including runner-up last year.

Matt Jones

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T14 T5 T44

Another that has played well in Puerto Rico, shown some steady results in 2014.

Jaime Lovemark

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

Been fighting back from injuries, he could be good for this course.

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