BlogWho will win at Doral on Sunday?

Things you need to know for Sunday’s final round at Doral:

Your third round leader is Patrick Reed, will he be leading after tomorrows final round?

Probably not but I would of said the same thing after the third round at Wyndham and Humana. Reed has one of those type of games that he can win any time but he also can be very bad.  Look at this chart of Reed’s best finishes. This is his 52nd PGA Tour start and he only has six top-ten finishes.  He has only made 62% of his cuts (32 of 51) so you can see he is either really good or really bad.  Reed has never played in any majors, he teed it up for the first time in a WGC event two weeks ago losing in the second round of the Accenture Match Play.  So he has something to prove and that is if he can win a really important event with a great field chasing him, something that was lacking at Wyndham and Humana because those chasing him weren’t the elite of the PGA Tour.  Now before you jump down my throat for that statement, yes I agree winning twice at the age of 23 on the PGA Tour is quite an accomplish, especially when you know that he has had the third round lead twice, and won both of those times.  One other positive on Reed, he help guide Augusta State to back-to-back NCAA championships in 2010 and 2011 so he knows what to do when in the lead.

Back to the original question on if Patrick Reed can win on Sunday, I don’t think so.

So if not Reed who else will win?

Reed may have a two shot lead at 4 under, but there are two players, Jason Dufner and Hunter Mahan at 2 under, two Tiger Woods and Jamie Donaldson at 1 under, three Miguel Angel Jimenez, Zach Johnson and Dustin Johnson at even par and five Jimmy Walker, Richard Sterne, Bubba Watson, Graeme McDowell and Matt Kuchar at one over.  Also knocking on the door is Phil Mickelson, Branden Grace, Bill Haas, Ryan Moore and Nick Watney at 2 over so a lot of players close.  It’s a wide open race for me, anyone of these players can win.

So of all of those that I mentioned, who has played the most consistent?

Gosh if you count Reed, only two of the top-18 players have shot three rounds with the high score of 73 or lower, Bubba Watson and Graeme McDowell.  Watson has rounds of 73-72-72 and he has stayed away from disaster with no double bogeys and ten bogeys.  McDowell with rounds of 73-71-73 has no double bogeys either and 11 bogeys.  Normally this is high, but it shows that they have been very consistent and could be ready to shot a low round of 67 or 68 on Sunday.

Is Tiger for real?

Tiger has gotten better after each round and with his 66 on Saturday moved up from a T25th into a T12th.  Woods was pretty much written off after his double bogey on the 14th hole on Thursday which at the time placed him at six over par.  Since then has played his next 40 holes in 7 under par and has shown shades of the old Tiger Woods.  So what has the secret been?  Hitting the ball better, after the first two rounds he hit 21 of 36 greens.  On Saturday he only missed only four greens.  Also Tiger has found his putting stroke, this is the key to winning for him.  It’s a rarity that he has won putting bad and over the course of the last five years his putting has been very inconsistent which I feel has been his biggest problem.  NBC interviewed Tiger after the round and he didn’t sugar-coat his back pain saying it was still there, that for me will be the big question mark on Sunday, will it hold up.  If I was to guess on Tiger’s score on Sunday it will probably be a 71, I don’t seem him being a factor down the stretch.

So any other “consistent” players?

In looking at Jason Dufner, he has played the front nine in four over and the back in six under so that’s important in the scheme of things.  In looking at the high scores, anyone going into the back nine within five could sneak in, if they play it like Dufner has this week you can see how they would win.  Hunter Mahan is also playing great and if it wasn’t for a triple bogey six on the 4th hole in the second round he could be in the lead.  I like the fact that he has played his last seven holes in 2 under par, but a negative is making bogeys at 18 in the second and third round.  Still he is one to watch and if he does pull out a victory he will claim three WGC events, he won the Bridgestone in 2010 and the Accenture Match Play in 2012

Any other surprises? 

• I would watch these three players on Sunday, first Zach Johnson  He started the year off with a bang and I can see him doing well tomorrow.  He shot 71 on Saturday and was very consistent only making two bogeys.  He just has the type of game that can really sneak in there on Sunday.
• Also watch Dustin Johnson, after opening up with 69 has fallen back with a 74 and a 73.  But he made a great birdie at 18 on Saturday that makes you think that he can sneak up on Sunday.  He is the longest player in the field and that does have advantages at Doral.
• Lastly I like Matt Kuchar, who after shooting 69 followed up with 74-74.  Just have to think his bad rounds are away from him and he could play well on Sunday.  Does have a good record at Doral, maybe this is the week for him.

Could Jimmy Walker win #4 of the year?

Yes he could, he played great on Sunday shooting 67 with a double bogey on 4.  He played his last 14 holes in six under, the question is if he can keep it up on Sunday.  Here is a very interesting stat, right now he has three victories and will be only the third player to tee it up at the Masters for the first time with three or more wins (since 1969).  The first was Tom Shaw, who won four times before his first Masters in 1971 and the second was Denis Watson, who won three times in 1984 and played his first Masters in 1985.

So who is the real winner this week?

Without a doubt the two winners this week are Donald Trump and Gil Hanse.

No matter what anyone thinks of Trump, yes he’s a big blowhard that loves to  stoke his own ego, he is one that will take a gamble and risk on things.  Trump has taken several risks on courses that had serious debt and wouldn’t of made it without him.  Places like his course in Palos Verdes, just outside of Los Angeles.  On it was a great course but in a area prone to landslides in which three of the holes had already slide into the ocean.  Trump took a risk in buying it and paid to fix it up and today it’s one of the top places on the west coast for anyone to play.  Trump really took a big risk with Doral, to many detractors location is lacking and that it’s seen it’s heyday in past years.  But Trump bought it and then risked the money to remodel it and today we can see it’s a great course again.

As for Hanse, first to work for Trump is not an easy task and Hanse has done a great job in keeping Trump happy.  But his biggest accomplishment is in his renovation.  In 1997 when Raymond Floyd redid the course all he did was make it tougher.  But what Hanse did was seriously make each of the holes better and more prevalent with the way the game is played today.  Each of the holes now take a lot of thought and effort to make sure that they are played properly.  Of course the scores are way up, mother nature has a lot to do with it but if you have a calm, windless day the course will still be hard for the best players in the world.  So Trump and Hanse should be commended for the work they’ve done.

Below is a list of the top-20 players on the leader board going to 3 over showing how they have done of late to see who has played the best: