BlogWho will win at Bay Hill on Sunday?

Things you need to know for Sunday’s final round at Bay Hill:

Before we begin….

Yesterday was a sad day for me personally and the golf world on learning of the death of Frank Hannigan.  He was like a second father to me, since I first met him 30 years ago he has always been gracious and a person of great strength for me.  Yes he was cantankerous and very opinionated but his best quality was his truthfulness and loyalty.  He wasn’t afraid of telling you what he thought and never sugarcoated anything.  That was his key and the reason ABC Sports hired him in 1989.  I also worked for ABC Sports back then and saw how he was able to help producers Terry Jastrow and then Jack Graham through several tough issues with answers to help guide the shows in the right direction when tough issues came up.  You may not of gotten the answer that you wanted from Frank but it made you think that it was the fair and right way of handling something.  He retired from ABC in 2002 but still was an important ear for me personally, guiding me through the opening of first GolfObserver and then this site Golfstats.  When you got an email from Frank, it may not of been pretty but his words, thoughts and direction were elegantly laid out.  In knowing him for a number of years I realized that his thoughts were more about the average person and he detested big money and what it was doing to change the golf landscape.  For Frank golf was about going to a piece of ground that had 18 tees, 18 fairways and 18 greens, tee it up, fire a shot with a persimmon driver, then grab your bag and march down the fairway.  Maybe because of his middle class roots growing up in Staten Island is why Frank turned out the way he was.  He loved underdog stories thriving to learn about them and see them succeed, a trait that is hard to find in people these days.  I know personally he will be missed, even in poor health we would talk for many hours on the issues of golf and how hard the business of golf has gotten.  My condolences goes out to his wife Janet and two children Keith and Susan, he will be missed.

Let’s go on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational…

So can Adam Scott win on Sunday?

Yes he can, Scott is probably one of the top-five best players on tour today.  He could be the greatest ball striker in the game today and when his chipping and putting are good, he tends to win a lot.  Many will say his biggest weakness is putting, but in fact it’s his makeup in sometimes overanalyzing and talking himself out of championships.  A perfect example of this was his loss in the 2012 British Open and last year’s Australian Open.  In both cases his thought process and confidence level led him to disaster, something that we saw in his round on Saturday when he made four bogeys.  At the same time he is learning more on dealing with it and it’s the reason that he shot 71 instead of a 74 or 75.

So does that mean that Scott may not win on Sunday?

Yes, if he tries to overanalyze things instead of just going out and shooting for the pins someone can sneak in and beat him like Ernie Els did at the British Open and Rory McIlroy did at the Australian Open.  The reason I don’t think he will lose is that he is playing great and he is putting really well.  Also the experience factor is there, he always learns from his mistakes and tries not to follow them, so I expect good things from him.

So can Keegan Bradley win on Sunday?

Damn right he can.  Bradley will begin the final round in second place, three shots behind Scott. Bradley has not won since the 2012 WGC-Bridgestone , but each of his three PGA Tour wins had final-round comebacks so he is in a seat he is familiar with. .After a slow start to his year, his game seems to have warmed up since coming to Florida.  It doesn’t surprise me because Bradley’s best always seems to come starting in March, plus I think he is more comfortable with Bermuda that any other grass.  Another thing about Bradley is his enthusiasm and cockiness, when he gets on a rolled it’s very hard to beat him and you can see from his start in which he par his first 11 holes on Thursday, going on to shooting 71, then tacking on a 67 on Friday followed by a 66 on Saturday in which he made six birdies on the back nince including birdies at 16, 17 and 18 he could be a person that Adam Scott will worry about.

Can anybody else with?

I can only see either Scott or Bradley winning.  Scott is at 15 under, followed by Bradley at 12 under.  Matt Every and Jason Kokrak are at 11 under with Chesson Hadley and Francesco Molinari at ten under.  In just know out of the group of Every, Kokrak and Hadley their main concern getting a third and possibly a runner-up finish which would  solidify their years.  Now Molinari is a different story, he and Ian Poulter who is at 8 under will try to press the issue and if Scott looks to be faltering early will try and take advantage of the situation.  Still I think this will be a two horse race.

Other than the win for Scott or Bradley, what else is at stake on Sunday?

First if Adam Scott wins he will be the number one golfer in the world.  Frankly I don’t think he feels it’s that important and won’t be a driving factor for him.  Still it will be a nice honor and with the way Tiger is with the back, Adam would be number one at the Masters.  For Chesson Hadley, who won two weeks ago in Puerto Rico, he still doesn’t have a Masters invite and could get one with a great round on Sunday.  He presently is 58th in the world rankings and if he could get into the top-50 after next week’s Valero Texas Open he will get one of the last invites.  In order to get into the top-50 this week, Hadley needs a top-seven or better finish.  Now if Hadley can finish in the top-four, he would shoot up to 40th or 41st in the rankings, enough that he would lock up a Masters spot without having to worry about Valero.  Other players on the bubble for getting into the top-50 is Matt Every who is 94th in the rankings, Ryo Ishikaw who is 83rd and Pat Perez who is 102nd.  All three are in bad shape and can only crack the top-50 with a win.  But a second or third place finish could put them within shouting distance for next week’s Texas Open.