BlogMasters Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Going through the gates of Augusta is always special.  The place is a Shangri-la, a permanently happy land that is isolated from the outside world.  The course is very special in being challenging but very fair, one that adds excitement and rewards for the best.  In the long run if one was to script the perfect place to hold a championship, Augusta National would be on top of the list for not only the course but the facilities and ability of handling spectators.

Because of this the Masters is held in high esteem. Just like Baseball last week, this is the opening day of the 2014 golfing season.  Yes there have been 21 events already played on the PGA Tour and 16 events on the European Tour, which means the season is half over but basically all of those are a prelude to this week.

In the events going into this week we are seeing a very cloudy crystal ball on what direction things are going.  For the first time in 20 years Tiger Woods won’t be playing in the Masters.  For the first time since 2010 Phil Mickelson goes into the Masters without a victory, which to some degree is good because he won the Masters that year.  But in a negative way, of the 21 events played on the PGA Tour we have only seen one top-ten player win, Jason Day who was 10th at the WGC-Match Play.  So we are seeing true parity on the PGA Tour this year, the only question is if golf fan like this or not.  I for one love to seeing new blood winning, but you can’t eat Filet Mignon everyday without it growing old and what has happened in the last seven weeks of golf is growing real old.

So as we get to the first major of the year, the big question will be if the name players will finally break out of this funk and win.  We have seen great players like Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Bubba Watson and Matt Kuchar go into the final round with leads and come up empty handed.  Could that happen this week?  Could we have a Rory McIlroy leading going into the back nine and implode like he did at the Honda?  Could we see a John Senden shot a final round 76 and win the Masters like he did the Valspar?  Could we see Jimmy Walker shoot a final round 63 to win the Masters, kind of like the way he won the Sony Open in Hawaii earlier this year?

These are all valid questions and ones that I can’t answer.  We are seeing a global change in golf this year, the rise of the journeymen, players you would least expect to win do the deed.  We have seen surges from players like Jimmy Walker and Patrick Reed, both players that have never played in the Masters, could this be there year at the Masters?  There are 24 Masters rookies, the most in the tournaments history.  That’s an unbelievable figure, a quarter of the field playing the Masters for the first time.  That gives them a one in four chance of winning, something that hasn’t happened at the Masters since Masters rookie Fuzzy Zoeller did it in 1979.  That’s a generation ago and something that was laughed off in past Masters as not ever happening again.  But this year it’s a reality, a rookie winner.

For the first time in a long time the odds are nothing but numbers on a paper, meaningless information that are being ignored.   Yes Rory McIlroy is the favorite at 10 to 1 while Russell Henley is listed as 150 to 1.  Now Henley was the guy that got, then beat McIlroy in a playoff to win the Honda Classic six weeks ago so you can see that being the favor doesn’t give you the win.    You can just about pick a name out of a hat, the odds could be better than trying to pick a winner.  So it will be interesting to see if this trend on parity continues this week and we see a Brendon de Jonge or a Graham DeLaet win.  Not in a million years did anyone think that Victor Dubuisson would be in the final match of the WGC-Accenture. Little did we think that Chris Kirk or Harris English or Kevin Stadler or even Steven Bowditch would be playing in the Masters this week.  Now we are wondering if there could be that kind of a surprise winner this week, along with names like Marc Leishman who was T4th last year or Thorbjorn Olesen who finished 6th 12 months ago.

Tim Finchem and his band of merrymen from Ponte Vedra talk about how great parity is, but if you find the “business Tim”  in a dark alley and tell him he has to tell you the truth, he would admit that deep down golf and the PGA Tour is a better product if Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson or Ernie Els or Bubba Watson win every week.  Gosh, maybe we can have TinkerBell wave her magic wand over Tiger Woods and make the leg better.  Or better yet, maybe TinkerBell can spread some of that pixie dust over Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus on Thursday morning in the first tee ceremony and have the pixie dust remove 50 years off of both of them. Arnie would probably look over at Jack with a big smile and say, “S_ _ t Jack, I feel like it’s 1960, lets just go out and see if we could beat these guys this week.”  Jack would probably start laughing and tell Arnold, “bet you a ten-ner that I can whip your butt today.”  That would be wonderful and a nice thought the think about.

Back to reality, as I write this in Augusta at lunch time on Monday the weather is awful.  Lot’s of storms with very unsettling weather that makes it look like Armageddon is on the other side of Amen Corner.  The good news is the long range forecasts say that after this storm moves out on Monday night, we will see six splendid days of weather until some rain moves in on Monday afternoon just after my plane takes into the air to fly me home to Washington D.C.  So we could have a very fast, firm course this year which Augusta officials would love to have.  Who knows maybe a nice, firm, tough course is just the remedy to awaken the Phil Mickelson’s, Rory McIlroy’s, Serigo Garica’s, Justin Rose’s, Adam Scott’s and Bubba Watson’s of the world and we can see a really special show this week.

Guess we will just have to wait and see.

Things you need to know about the Masters:

This will be the 78th edition of the Masters. It has been played ever year, except for between 1943 and 1945 when the war suspended the championship.  Ever year it is played at Augusta National, the only major played on the same course each year.

The Masters was conceived by Bobby Jones, who had always dreamed of having a U.S. Open played on Augusta National.  But with the hot summers in June, Jones approached the USGA with the idea of playing the Open at Augusta in April, but the USGA turned him down.  So Jones and Clifford Roberts decided to hold their own annual event beginning in 1934.  Roberts proposed that the event be called the Masters Tournament, but Jones objected thinking it was too presumptuous.  The name Augusta National Invitation Tournament was adopted and that title was used for five years until 1939 when Jones relented and the name was officially changed.

Course information:

• August National Golf Club
• August, S.C.
• 7,435 yards     Par 36-36–72

While playing championship golf, Bobby Jones had always hoped that one day he would be able to build a championship golf course somewhere near his Atlanta home.  Upon his retirement after the 1930 U.S. Amateur, Jones set out to complete his dream.  In the 1920s he met New York banker Clifford Roberts, who helped Jones with his dream. After looking at several places they both decided on Augusta, Ga. as the site because it provided the best weather in the winter months.  They scouted the area for a piece of land that according to Jones plans would utilize the natural shape and slope of the property to build the course.  Jones didn’t want a course that relied on severe rough as a hazard and also hoped that he could find a piece of property that would have a stream running through so that he could build several holes around it for water hazards.  He also wanted to build a championship course that would be playable for the average golfer, one that would use mounds and slopes as hazards instead of sand bunkers.

Also helping Jones and Roberts on their search was Thomas Barrett Jr. He knew of a piece of land in Augusta that he thought would be perfect for Jones’ dream course.  He recommended a piece of property called Fruitlands Nursery.  The land consisted of 365 acres that was once an indigo plantation the family bought in 1857.  The man was Louis Mathieu Edouard Berckmans, who was a horticulturist by hobby.  Along with his son Julius Alphonse, an agronomist and horticulturist by profession, they formed a business in 1858 to import trees and plants from various countries.  It would be the first commercial nursery in the south and they called it, Fruitlands Nursery. Even though Berchmans died in 1883 the business flourished. A great variety of flowering plants and trees, including a long double row of magnolias, were planted before the Civil War, and today they serve as the club’s entrance were on the property.  But Prosper’s claim to fame was that he popularized a plant called the azalea.

Upon Prosper’s death in 1910 the business stop operation and the heirs looked for a buyer.  That buyer came around in late 1930 when Tom Barrett first showed Jones Berchman’s nursery.  Upon seeing the property from what is now the practice putting green, Jones knew he had the perfect land for a perfect golf course.  He told Roberts and Barrett that he thought the ground had been lying there all these years waiting for someone to come along and lay a golf course on it.

An option was taken on the property for $70,000 and it was decided to establish a national membership for the club and Jones proposed Augusta National would be an appropriate name. Jones also decided in the planning stage he wanted Dr. Alister Mackenzie of Scotland to serve as the course architect since the pair held similar views. Before coming to Augusta, Mackenzie had designed two courses in California – Pasatiempo and Cypress Point.  Jones played those courses after he failed in the first round of the 1929 U.S. Amateur and fell in love with the courses and MacKenzie’s design.  So that was the main reason he got MacKenzie to help him.

Jones and Mackenzie completed the plans and the construction started in July of 1931. Unfortunately, Mackenzie died after the construction work was completed, before Augusta National was fully covered with grass. The course was finished and opened in December 1932 with a limited amount of member play. A formal opening took place in January of 1933.

Since the course opened it has been changed several times in the 81 years.  In 1934 the tournament nines were different and was changed for the 1935 event.  Also the grasses have changed over the years between bent and bermudagrass, Today Augusta National’s tees and fairways are Bermuda grass, but they are overseeded each fall with rye grass.  The greens are bentgrass which gives them there wonderful speed and smoothness.

The average green size at Augusta is 6,150 square feet, which is about the average on the PGA Tour. Water that comes into play on five holes on the back side and there are only 43 bunkers.

In 2013 Augusta National was the 4th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.412 average playing 1.412 stroke under par.  For a more comprehensive look at the course, look at this course overview done by Masters.Com.

Here are some other storylines that could pan out this week:

• Could an Aussie win again this week?  Adam Scott won last year and for the first time the Masters was won by an Aussie.  It was the last of the four majors that hadn’t been won by someone from Australia so that jinx is off.  This year we have seven players from Australia so you never know if this could be the year.  Now in looking at the different regions of the world, every part of it has seen a winner, with the exception of Asia and Antarctica.  Now we will never see a winner from the South Pole, so that leaves Asia and only Hideki Matsuyama (Japan), Chang-woo Lee, Sang-Moon Bae, K.J. Choi, Y.E. Yang (Korea) and Thongchai Jaidee (Thailand) have a chance at erasing that anomaly.
• Could a Brit win this week?  Damn right they could, between Rory McIlroy Lee Westwood, Luke Donald or Justin Rose they all have great chances.  It’s funny, for 20 years now we have heard on how much European golf has caught up with American golf.  Going into this week 15 of the top-45 are European, but of those six are from the United Kingdom.  So the story could be how great those from the United Kingdom (including Northern Ireland) could do.
• What about Rory McIlroy?  I can’t see a player in any better state of mind than McIlroy.  He has worked hard this year and his work seems to have paid off, guess we will see on Sunday.
•  How tough will the course play this week?  Many are saying that the ice storm from last February has taken it’s toll not only on the Eisenhower Tree on the 17th hole, but lot’s of trees around the course.  This probably won’t pay a factor since the fairways are very generous to begin with, it will just make it easier for the patrons to see there favorites.  As for the condition of the course, it’s always perfect and with the storms on Monday, the course will be soaked.  Augusta officials have some tricks with the subair system that can drain the greens and make them bone dry in three hours.  So with great weather look for fast conditions, if there is wind the scores could climb very high this week.
• Since his win at the Arnold Palmer invitational last year, Tiger Woods has been ranked #1 ever since.  But with his injury it’s only a matter of time when someone will pass him up.  It could be as early as this week.  Masters champion Adam Scott, who squandered a great shot at being #1 when he lost a 3 shot lead in the final round at the Arnold Palmer, would need to finish in a two-way tie for third this week to get to the #1 spot.  Third rank Henrik Stenson would need at least a two-way tie for second at the Masters to become the first Swedish play to lead the rankings.  Finally #4 Jason Day would have to win the Masters to have any shot to be on top of the rankings.

No matter what, sit back and enjoy one of the great spectacles of golf.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Masters:

Key stat for the winner:

There are a few things that all winners at the Masters have in common.  First it’s precise ball striking, like a Ben Hogan, length and power like Tiger Woods, deft touch with a putter on the steeply contoured greens like a Ben Crenshaw and the mind and wisdom of a Jack Nicklaus.  All of these are what it takes to win the Masters.

• Precise ball hitting is a must. With steeply contoured greens you have to position shots to the green in a area that you will set up an easy putt. That’s why players like Nick Faldo and Ben Hogan have five titles. If you look at the champions of the Masters, a poor putter usually doesn’t win.  Being able to avoid three putts is important.
•  Now, of course, Zach Johnson having six three-putts in 2007 and Bubba Watson in 2012 with four put a dent in our theory about three putts.  In looking further back in history, both Vijay Singh in 2000 and Tiger Woods in 2001 had more in the year they won the Masters than the previous seven champions of the 1990s put together.  That doesn’t mean that we’re going to have a new trend. I will still bet that the winner this year has the least number of three putts of anyone else in the field.
• To show you how theories don’t work all of the time, look at the theory that says you have to hit it long to win at Augusta.  Yes, Tiger, Phil and Vijay hit the ball long, but past champions like Mike Weir, Jose Maria Olazabal, Mark O’Meara and Ben Crenshaw could be the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour.  No matter what, length is very important, just look at Tiger Woods’ victory in 1997. Being able to reach par-5s with wedges is a big advantage over players hitting into the greens with long irons and woods.  But again, theories don’t work sometimes at the Masters. Just look at Zach Johnson in 2007. He laid up on all the par 5s and played them in 11 under par.  With dry, firm conditions this year brings in shorter hitters and gives them a chance.
• Stats are great but in reality they really don’t mean much when it comes to picking a winner at the Masters.  Since 1993 the only true favorite to win the Masters was Tiger Woods who won it in 1997, 2001, 2002, 2005 and Phil Mickelson in 2004, 2006 and 2010.  Even Adam Scott winning last year wasn’t a big surprise. But nobody would of thought that Bubba Watson would win in 2012, it was a big surprise for Charl Schartzel in 2011, Angel Cabrera winning it in 2009, Trevor Immelman winning it in 2008 and Zach Johnson winning it in 2007.  Still in the folklore of Masters champions, some surprise champions include Mike Weir who won in 2003 and Vijay Singh in 2000.  Even bigger surprise winners have been Jose Maria Olazabal, Mark O’Meara, Bernhard Langer and Ben Crenshaw, who came from out of the blue to win.  You never know that has been the trend on the PGA Tour this year.  Still one thing is certain, you need to have a track record to win at Augusta.  The last time a non-winner on the PGA or European Tour won was back in 1948 when Claude Harmon, father of Butch, won his first and only individual title on the PGA Tour at the Masters.  As the old saying goes, records are meant to be beaten and who knows, maybe a non-winner will surprise us all this week.
• Last but not least experience and wisdom is important, that’s why Jack Nicklaus has six titles. The last player to win the Masters in his first start is Fuzzy Zoeller, who did it back in 1979.  There are 24 first timers this year and I can’t imagine any of those winning.  But I never imaged Matt Jones, Steven Bowditch and Matt Every winning.  But what a great story it would be to see one of these 24 winning, but don’t put more than a dollar down on that happening.  Or would it be great, this season has been boring enough and I feel hurt the rest of the year so I don’t want to see a rookie winner.