BlogWho will win at Hilton Head on Sunday?

Things you need to know before Sunday’s final round:

Happy Easter to all.  One note, we will not have a who will win Zurich next week. Sorry going up for an old friends memorial service and I will probably not be in any shape at this time next week.  We will be back to week after on the Wells Fargo.  Thanks.

So does this mean Luke Donald is back?

In a way it does means he is back.  So what happen to him?  In 2011 he ruled the world, not only winning the money titles on both the PGA Tour and European Tour, but he took over the number one spot in the world rankings.  Going into 2012 the world was his for the taking and for some odd reason, probably taking it easy and spending those millions of dollars that he earned his game was not the same.  Maybe that’s a bit unfair, but after four wins in 2011 Donald got off to a terrible start in 2012.  In mid-March when he won the Transitions Championship, followed two months later with a win at the BMW PGA Championship, the biggest championship on the European Tour, things looked great and many thought he’d have a great finish of the year and repeat what happened the previous year.  But that win in Wentworth in 2012 would be his last, he made a lot of money and finished the year with six top-tens in his last ten starts but it just wasn’t the same.  Donald also had another problem, that meaning his play in major championships which he was stymied again with getting close but really no cigar.  Things got worst in 2013 and when he missed the cut at the PGA Championship in Rochester he realized that father-time was slipping away and his game was in no shape for majors.  Donald needed to change his game, strengthen his long game and he put his career in the hands of Chuck Cook who got Donald to hit the ball with his turn instead of his hands.  In November Donald saw some results winning in Japan, but progress on the European and PGA Tour has been slow.  Things got better with a T8th at the Honda Classic, then a T4th at the Valspar Championship but he had a setback when he missed the cut at the Masters.  So in a way a week after disappointment he is showing signs that he could possibly win this week.

What is Donald track record at Harbour Town?

His record is good with two runner-up finishes and a couple of thirds.  So it’s really not a surprise that he is on top going into the final round.

So what is Donald doing right?

Hitting lot’s of greens, you do that and as we said in our preview you go on a win.  He is T2nd in greens hit and hitting the ball an average of 30 feet away.  He has made the most birdies of anyone but with his experience on this course he has to be the favorite.

But is he the favorite?

To many he is but to insiders he may not be.  In 2011 he led going into the final round and wasn’t able to close it out, losing a playoff to Brandt Snedeker.  Donald just has a problem when he is close going into the final round and that is not sealing the deal.  So in a way I can see that happening again on Sunday.  Sorry to have wasted all this time with the conclusion that Donald may blow some shots down the stretch but that’s the reality of Luke Donald.

So it’s back to the drawing board, if not Donald who then???

Again it’s wide open, I can see anyone within six of the lead doing it, that’s 20 other players.  John Huh is in second two shots back and can do the deed.  He won in Mexico two years ago, beating Robert Allenby in a eight hole playoff so he knows how to win.  Charl Schwartzel is three back and been there many times and you know he won’t be easy on Sunday.  There is also Nicholas Thompson who hasn’t won but has the family thing pointing in a good direction because his sister Lexi won the Kraft Nabisco two weeks ago.  So he has that good karma working for him.  But the person we should all look out for is Jim Furyk.  I said it in my preview, he plays well at Harbour Town and his game is steadily getting better the last month.

So what about Matt Kuchar?

God if there ever was a person that should win this week it should be Kuchar.  The last three weeks he was in the cat bird seat and had a terrible final round, you know this rotten streak can’t continue.  On Sunday he is T7th and four shots back which means he needs a 65 or better for a chance so it would be great if he can do it after what he has gone through.  Maybe knowing that he has to come from behind is better for him instead of being among the leaders.

Who else?

We never talked about Ben Martin, who is T3rd at 5 under but has no track record with just two top-tens in 41 starts, but you have to start someplace.  He did finish 3rd at Puerto Rico last months so you never know if divine intervention will take place.  Russell Knox who is at 4 under you may remember was in that four way playoff at the Honda Classic, so if the leaders have problems Knox could be in the right place at the right time.  Tied with him is Brian Stuard and Brian Harman, I don’t see any of them doing it but again you just don’t know.  Rounding out those at 4 under is Matt Every who backed into victory at the Arnold Palmer when Adam Scott went wrong in the final round.  So it should be a very interesting final round.

Below is a list of the top-33 players on the leader board going to one under which is 7  shots back of Luke Donald.