BlogWho will win at Charlotte on Sunday?

Things you need to know before Sunday’s final round:

Finally could we have a great Sunday?

After a dog of an event last week in which we had our umpteen “faceless” champion we could have a great Sunday in store.  J.B. Holmes leads, now many will say “Sal, come on J.B. Holmes and Martin Flores are one-two with Kevin Kisner third and Jason Bohn T4th.  But also in the mix is Phil Mickelson, who shot 63 on Saturday, Justin Rose and Martin Kaymer.  Also in the mix somewhat is Rory McIlroy, who shot 65 on Saturday and goes into the final round seven back but if we put on our history cap we can remember back to the 2010 Wells Fargo, McIlroy went into the final round 4 back, shot a final round 62 and walked away with a four shot win so we can see that anything is possible on Sunday.

What makes J.B. Holmes such an compiling story on Sunday?

First of all Holmes doesn’t have history on his side as in the previous 11 years of this championship only three third round leaders have won, in 2003 with David Toms, 2006 with Jim Furyk and way back in 2008 with Anthony Kim.  Now their are many reasons for this, but the main one is the greatest of Quail Hollow which is one of these really tough courses that can produce low scores.  When we think that Saturday’s scoring average was 71.137 the cumulative scoring average is 72.540 and we had low scores of 63 by Mickelson, 65 by McIlroy and 66s by leader J.B. Holmes along with Mark Wilson and Pat Perez.  What really makes Sunday compiling is the J.B. Holmes story in which he has had his fair share of injuries over the course of the last three years.  Last year on the Saturday of the Wells Fargo, Holmes was picking ponies at the Kentucky Derby because of a broken ankle he got in March of 2013 in a rollerblading accident.  Now it’s the first Wells Fargo had missed since his rookie year in 2006 and we haven’t even gone into the fact that he had to undergo brain Surgery in August of 2011 to repair Chiari Malformations.  Gosh I don’t know of any other player that has had brain surgery and won on the PGA Tour.

So what does all of this mean, will J.B. Holmes win on Sunday?

Probably not, I am a big opponent of history that shows we haven’t had a third round leader win since 2008 but on the other side of the fence it may be long overdo to finally have a third round leader win.  In looking at the history of other events that has this streak their is only one other event is tied with the Wells Fargo and that is the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial who hasn’t seen a third round leader win since 2008 with Phil Mickelson.  Another thing that worries me a bit about J.B. Holmes, yes his two victories in Phoenix were because he was a leader going into the final round, but the third time wasn’t the charm for him as had a one shot lead going into the final round of the 2010 Valero Texas Open and shot 76 and finishing T13th.  That memory and the fact that he hasn’t been in contention going into the final round since the 2012 Greenbrier Classic sends some warning bells.  But at the end of the day Holmes is leading the driving distance stat this week and second in strokes gained putting which makes me think that Holmes has a better than 50-50 chance of winning on Sunday.

So if not Holmes, who else?

Of course many will point to Phil Mickelson who shot 63 on Saturday but if you subtract the field average of 71.137 his true under par value was 8.137 under par while Angel Cabrera’s first round 66 with a first round average of 73.385 makes his round almost as good.  At the end of the day the fact remains can Mickelson keep the good karma going and shot 67 or 68 which it will take for him to win?  One thing riding in Mickelson’s favor is the fact that in ten starts at the Wells Fargo he has seven top-ten finishes but some warning signs could be last year when he finished 3rd with a final round 73.  If I was to place odds on Mickelson winning it would be in the 50-50 range.  One thing to remember about Mickelson’s day on Saturday, after shooting 29 on the front nine he slowed down on the back making just two birdies and no bogeys in what could of potentially been a round in the 50s.  At the same time one thing to remember was his great par save on 18 after driving into a fairway bunker and still finding a way to make par which should carry the momentum into the final round.

So if not for Holmes or Mickelson, who else?

I like Justin Rose who is just four back or even McIlroy at 7 back.  Funny in looking at Rose’s record in this event there is nothing there.  But he hasn’t played since 2011 and is a much different player now so look out he could bust out with a 66 or a 65.  As for Martin Flores (a shot back), Kevin Kisner (3 shots back), Jason Bohn (4 shots back) I will be as diplomatic as possible in saying not a shot in the world but in saying those words have to remember that this is the season of the “faceless” winners and I also thought the same about Seung-Yul Noh going into the final round of the Zurich last week, or Matt Jones going into the final round of the Shell Houston Open or Steven Bowditch going into the final round of the Valero Texas Open.  I can probably name a dozen more winners in 2014 but I really don’t want to bore you other than to say “on the PGA Tour, anything is possible.”

Below is a list of the top-27 players on the leader board going to five under which is 8  shots back of J.B. Holmes