BlogThe Players Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

• Glad to see J.B. Holmes win the Wells Fargo.  He is one of those hidden talents on the PGA Tour that has had injuries take his potential away from him.  Between having two brain surgeries along with numerous surgeries on libs, Holmes has had to fight hard to get back to this high level.  What makes Holmes great is the ability to not only hit the ball a long way but also have a great putting touch.  Historically Holmes isn’t the best putter inside three feet, but between five to ten feet he ranks very high and this is a skill that is hard to find, a long hitter that putts well.  Will Holmes ever win a major, that is questionable.  But of all the first time winners on tour this year I can see them never winning again but I can see many other wins for Holmes in the future.
• As we all know defending champion Tiger Woods will not be around this week.  For media and fans alike Tiger the last couple of weeks has been frustrating because Tiger never reveals anything about himself and his injury has put him in seclusion with very little word on his return.  But wait today on TigerWoods.Com we got a very indepth progress report on what is going on with him.  The main thing that I got in trying to interpret what is happening with Tiger is that he is still not in any shape to play.  Because of the incision he is still very sore and other than chipping and putting hasn’t done anything else golf-wise.  As for the U.S. Open at Pinehurst which is six weeks away I can’t see him playing.  Maybe the British Open but I honestly don’t think we are going to see a domineering Tiger Woods this year.  As much as Tiger says that missing the Masters was tough, I read into some of his comments as he really isn’t biting at the bit not playing.  The older Tiger gets, the more I feel Tiger has other things that he finds more appealing than golf.  Tiger may of won five times last year and three times in 2012 but he never has shown his dominating stuff since he came back in 2010 from his personal problems.  Since undergoing back surgery at the end of March a lot has been written on if Tiger can ever catch Nicklaus and his 18 major championship wins.  I hate to say this but I just wonder if Tiger will ever win again.  In reading this statement from Tiger it’s almost like he is opening the door to the fact that he may not be able to play at the same level that he did between 1999 and 2008.  In a way I felt that since his personal scandal he hasn’t shown the same mojo that he use to have.  Still he had the same God-given talent along with the Physical body that was trim and always in shape along with the mental toughness to find a way of winning.  But in his prime Tiger had that special mojo to do Superman things that no other golfer has ever done.  But that mojo has gone away and I haven’t seen it since the 2008 U.S. Open and I doubt that Tiger will ever get it back.  Who knows what the future holds for Tiger, but after this report his short-term future doesn’t look good and if the always reclusive Tiger is telling us that now, I don’t hold out for much from him in 2014.
• I have been to the TPC Sawgrass Players course and always marvel how great it is and how well the course is condition even though it’s nothing more than a high price public facility.  Now Pebble Beach and Pinehurst have had their moments of not being in great shape with shabby greens, mostly because of their greed of putting on more $400 a round players on the course in times that the course shouldn’t have anyone playing it.  I have always been amazed how the TPC Stadim course has resisted  the almighty dollar in making sure the course is always well maintained course for the Players  until this year. The greens right now aren’t in great shape, almost like they were at the Tour Championship in 2008 when the tournament was moved from November to September.  Right now five greens are suppose to be in terrible shape on the Stadium Course, so bad that for practice rounds the players won’t be able to utilize the 4th, 11th and 12th greens at all.  As for the 9th and 14th greens they are open for now but not in very good shape. Now before the powers to be at Ponte Vedra scalp me for indicating that greed was the reason, to be fair it wasn’t the best of winters,  probably the worst on record and the combination of wet and cold weather along with a bad chemical application have made the greens the way they are.  Will they be totally unputtable, probably not.  But they won’t be at the level that players have gotten use to over the years.  In a way it shows how much players have been pampered beyond believe on the PGA Tour.  I remember having lunch with Byron Nelson 15 years ago and we talked about course conditions in his time and Byron swears that the fairways at Augusta were better than some of the greens he played on during the 30s and 40s.  Byron mentioned that even in the 60s and 70s when he was doing television that some of the greens at PGA Tour events were terrible and that it’s only been in the last 20 years that the art of agronomy have changed all of that.  Still it’s something for fantasy golf players to think about in making their picks that in looking at really great putters that may not be the case this week.  I for one think that it brings the more experience player to the top of the list of winners, because having bad greens will take not only the experience but also the patience of an experience player to conquer the course this week.

Things you need to know about the Players Championship:

This week we have the crowing jewel of the PGA Tour, The Players. This is the 41st edition of the Players Championship, which has been played at the TPC Stadium Course every year since 1982. Other than the four majors, it’s the fifth most important tournament in men’s professional golf.  The big news is what will be different for the players.  How will the course play this year?  Will it be firm and fast as officials hope.  Even with the bad weather over the winter which has taken it’s toll on many of the greens officials feel they can get the course dry and fast for Thursday’s opening round. One thing that will help scoring low is the lack of wind, it’s suppose to be minimal all week.  Many may feel that it takes a lot of experience to win the Players, since the event moved to the Stadium course, 12 different players in their 20s have won.  The list is impressive: Jerry Pate in 1982, Hal Sutton in 1983, Fred Couples in 1984, Sandy Lyle in 1987, Jodie Mudd in 1990, Steve Elkington in 1991, Davis Love III in 1992, Justin Leonard in 1998, David Duval in 1999, Tiger Woods in 2001, Adam Scott in 2004. and Sergio Garcia in 2008.  Need I also bring up that guys like Craig Perks, Fred Funk, Henrik Stenson and Tim Clark have also won so anything can happen this week.

Course information:

• The Players Stadium Course
• Ponte Vedra Beach, Fl.
• 7,215 yards     Par 36-36–72
• TPC Sawgrass features a course rating of 76.8 and a slope rating from the back tees of 155. The tees and fairways are Celebration bermudagrass while the rough is 419 bermudaGrass.  The greens is Mini Verde Ultrdwarf which has become very popular in the Southeast. The course was the 19th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2013 playing to an average of 72.323, so just over a quarter of a shot over par.
• The course opened in 1981 and hosted The Players Championship in 1982.  That year the course was very “raw” with a lot of complaints from the players that the greens and landing areas had too much slope.  Winds in the early days didn’t help ease the pain of the mounds, but over the years improvements have made the course more “player-friendly”.
• Over the years, the TPC Sawgrass has gone from a course the players didn’t care much about to one of the most loved, but toughest courses on Tour.  With the advent of the Players moving to May, the course went through an extensive renovation in 2007 in which all of the grass on the tees, fairways and greens were stripped off with a new drainage and irrigation system placed underneath. The greens were built with a sub-air system just like the one at Augusta National, which can control firmness in any weather conditions.
• At the same time, 122 yards was added to the course and the rough is now Bermuda instead of rye.
• With all of this — plus the new clubhouse — it gave the Players a new dimension in making it one of the best tournaments in the world, with the possibility of it one day being considered a major.
• A couple of things to be know, the average green size is 4,500 which is small and makes the targets harder.  With small greens that places more emphasis on shotmaking, but you have to be good in getting it up and down.  Water is on all 18 holes, but for the pro’s only comes into play on 11 holes. There are a total of 93 bunkers around the course along with a lot of waste areas in the fairways.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Players Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

Craig Perks blew the greatest stat the tournament had going for it with his win in 2002.  Before his victory, nobody had ever won the Players without a win on the PGA Tour.  On top of that since 1982 when the players switch to the Stadium course their hav been 27 different winners with 16 of them winning 38 major championships. Still the fact is if the course is dry and firm without rain hampering it the cream always rises to the top.   Just look at the list of champions at TPC Sawgrass, Sutton, Couples, Kite, Love, Norman, Leonard, Garcia, Duval, Mickelson and Woods. Not a bad list.  But the one thing they have in common is firm and fast conditions so if that happens this year look for a marquee winner.  Oh Craig Perks has some company as Tim Clark became the second player to win for the first time at the Players Championship.

Totally useless stat:

• One of the biggest oddities of The Players Championship and since Tiger Woods is not playing makes sure it won’t happen this year is the fact that nobody has ever repeated as champion. If you go back and look at all the tournaments that started before 1998, the only other one like this is was the U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee which is no longer played.  Six players have won this event multiple times, but none in consecutive years. Nicklaus is the only three-time winner (1974, 1976, 978). Two-time winners include Tiger Woods (2001, 2013), Steve Elkington (1991, 1997), Hal Sutton (1983, 2000), Fred Couples (1984, 1996) and Davis Love III (1992, 2003).
• The most unusual winner of the Players has to be Sandy Lyle who won it in a playoff in 1987.  We say unusual because of his 13 starts he only made three cuts, his win in 1987, a T74th in 1994 and a T70th in 1997.  Now Craig Perks only made two cuts in six tries but after winning the 2002 Players he finished T17th the next year.

So what does it take to win at the Players?

• Going back to 2000, every winner but four has been in the top-10 of greens hit category and five of them have led (Sergio Garcia-2008, Stephen Ames-2006, Fred Funk-2005, Adam Scott-2004, Hal Sutton-2000). In 2012 Matt Kuchar was T3rd in hitting 53 of the 72 greens while Tiger Woods was also T3rd hitting 55 of 72 greens.
• Great putting is a must for the week. The greens are always tough and fast but with half of them being in bad shape it will be interesting to see what happens. In the past number of putts hasn’t been the key as between 2004 and 2010 nobody was in the top-ten in number of putts made. K.J. Choi broke that streak finishing T6th in 2011 with only 108 putts, while Kuchar was T10th in 2012 with 110 putts.  Last year Tiger Woods was T35th taking 114 putts.
• Scrambling is important, no matter how well a player does he will still miss greens and have to be able to get it up and down to win.  There are a lot of tough chips on this course and it will take a lot of chip and runs instead of pitching it in the air
• As of right now there are are 15 first-time participants at this year’s Players Championship. The players teeing it up for the first time at TPC Sawgrass are Steven Bowditch, Jamie Donaldson, Stephen Gallacher, Chesson Hadley, Justin Hicks, Morgan Hoffmann, Russel Knox, D.H. Lee, Joost Luiten, Hideki Matsuyama, John Peterson, Michael Putnam, Patrick Read, Jordan Spieth and Shawn Stefani.  The only players to win The Players on their first start at the Stadium Course (since 1982) is Hal Sutton in 1983 and Craig Perks in 2002.  Of the 15 playing this year I can only see Jordan Spieth or Patrick Reed having a clear choice shot of winning this year.

Lastly the 17th hole has been downright boring the last couple of years, will it get better?

• The reputation of the 17th hole was pure fright.  Hitting to the island green was always hard and in some years it’s been downright scary.  Since keeping records in 2003, 525 balls have found a watery grave on the short par 3. The worst was in 2007 when 93 hit it in.  But in 2009 only 30 balls got wet while in 2010 only 29 went in the water. In 2011 40 balls found the water around the green while in 2012 39 went in.  Last year 44 found the water and if your wondering why it’s become easier the answer is easy.  With the change from March to May there is now a lack of wind.  That was the reason for 93 in the water, it was tough conditions.  So the answer is easy, if there is a lack of wind this week the 17th will play easier.  Still come Sunday no matter what the conditions are there is that special mystic of playing the 17th on the final day while in contention.

Now I don’t want to jinx the tournament, but weather in Ponte Vedra should be picture-perfect for every day of the championship except of Sunday. Despite all of the bad weather in the mid-west and eastern seaboard the course will have zero rain until Sunday.  Long range plans and of course I mean six days from the date this was published on Monday says that it will be a stormy day on Sunday, we can only hope for the best.