BlogWho will win at the Players on Sunday?

Things you need to know before Sunday’s final round:

Anybody else surprised to see Martin Kaymer leading?

In a way I am, Martin Kaymer is a perfect example of what’s really wrong with the PGA Tour, way too much money in which someone wins a big tournament and then loses the focus on winning again because they have way too much money and can’t spend it fast enough.  Back in 2010 Kaymer worked hard on the European Tour and in a span of about 36 months won six times in Europe and then in August of 2010 won the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits.  After that he continued his good play winning again in Abu Dhabi at the start of 2011, then a month later at the WGC-Accenture Match Play he took over the number one spot in the official World Rankings.  He was only able to hold onto that title for five weeks but his game started to slip.  Yes he ended the year winning the prestige WGC-HSBC Championship in China, but his instant fame took his toll as he started enjoying all of the adelaides of winning all of that money.  He also made a very poor decision by changing his game in which he had the greatest little fade in the world to starting to draw the ball so that he could get more power and play well at the Masters.  Yes he won the Nedbank Golf Challenge the end of 2012 but in 2013 he was nothing but a shell of his former self as he only found himself in contention during the final round just three times.  Over the course of the last year since finishing T4th last June at the BMW International in Germany he fell into the depths of playing really bad which was a combination of realizing his problems and spending most of the end of 2013 revamping his swing with longtime swing coach Gunter Kessler.  It’s been a long hard road for Kaymer, who is the poster child for the stereotype of the quintessential German meticulously striving for perfection.

So has Kaymer found that perfection which made him so good in 2010?

For the moment yes, he has now learned that there is nothing wrong with moving the ball left to right but at the same time can reach back and hit that perfect draw shot when needed.  What Kaymer has really capitalized in this week is overcoming one of the weaknesses of his game and that is scrambling in which he has habitually been near the bottom of the barrel for years now.  But this week he is fourth in that stat getting it up and down 10 of 13 times which his good since he leads the field in greens in regulation hitting 41 of 54 greens.  But there is one dark spot to his game this week and that is with the putter, yes he may be 4th in total putts made but most of that came in the first and second rounds as he is 28th in strokes gained putting.  So the big question for Kaymer going into the final round is if he could keep up with his great iron play in hitting lots of greens which wasn’t very good in the third round as he hit only 11 of 18 greens.  So there could be a lot of challenges for Martin on Sunday.

So why have you wasted so much time on Kaymer and still haven’t uttered a single word about Jordan Spieth?

Frankly because we have to give Kaymer his do for playing so well, but as we know winning is a fine and very meticulous art in which you try to gain momentum every day, which is hard to do when you shot a first round 63.  Before this week only two others started the Players with a 63 and it ended great for Greg Norman in 1994 with a win but for Roberto Castro last year he ended up T19th.  So you can get my hint, Sunday could be very tough for Kaymer which brings us to Jordan Spieth, who in a way is also going backwards but you have to give him some credit for going 54 holes without a bogey.  Greg Norman did the same feat in his 1994 victory, going 66 holes before finally making his only bogey of the week.

So am I also putting the “kibosh” onto Spieth?

Yes and no.  Spieth has had a great year with one exception and that is that he hasn’t won yet in 2014.  He had great opportunities to do that at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and Masters, but Spieth has also had great opportunities at the Farmers Insurance, AT&T Pebble Beach and Northern Trust but just hasn’t played that great on Sunday in those spots.  So we all know that it’s only a matter of time before Spieth does win and frankly Sunday could be the perfect day for him.  One thing about Spieth he has been more consistent than Kaymer over the course of three rounds, with the exception of his putting which was not very good on Saturday.

Let’s cut to the chase, will either Kaymer or Spieth win on Sunday?

The odds are 3 in 4 that one of the two will win.  They have a three shot lead over Sergio Garcia and John Senden and four over Matt Jones, George McNeill and Gary Woodland who all of them I can’t see winning.  Now Sergio is a past champion of the Players, winning it in 2008 But frankly I can only see him winning it in one way, he has to back into the victory because I just can’t see him going out on Sunday, shooting 66 and stroll across the finish line with a two shot victory.  If you question my thinking on that, just go back a year when Garcia was tied for the lead with Tiger Woods on the 17th tee and proceeded to hit two into the lake at 17 on the way to making a 7, then made a double bogey at 18 to fall from first into a T8th.  Could be the most costly last two holes in golf as he only won $237,500 while Tiger marched off with $1,710,000 and Kevin Streelman, David Lingmerth and Jeff Maggert left Ponte Vedra with $709,333 in their pockets.

So does anyone else have a chance?

With Kaymer and Spieth leading by three and those tied for third not very strong it leaves the door open for those at either 7, 6 or even 5 under shooting a 63 or 64 and stealing a victory.  Look at Lee Westwood or Francesco Molinari at 7 under, being one who could shot 64.  Gosh how many tournaments do the golfing Gods owe Lee Westwood?  In a way Westwood knows a bit of this as he went into the final round of the 2010 Players leading but shot 74 while Tim Clark shot 67 to win.  In 1998 Justin Leonard was five shots back going into the final round, shot 67 and won by two so both Westwood and Molinari are within easy reach.  Also don’t write off Stewart Cink and Jim Furyk at 6 under, along with Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar, Bubba Watson, Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose or even Justin Leonard who are seven back of the lead but only four back of third place.  The good news for Kaymer and Spieth is the weather, there will be a lack of win which is the number one reason that leaders fall apart.  But there is a 30% chance for thunderstorms and light showers which will help them and prevent some really bad rounds.  The weather will also make the finish a bit easier, hard to believe that only 1 ball was hit in the water at 17 yesterday, the total of 25 makes it a very tame hole.

Below is a list of the top-31 players on the leader board going to three under which is 9  shots back of Martin Kaymer and Jordan Spieth: