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BlogHP Byron Nelson Championship Preview and Picks

HP Byron Nelson Championship

May 15 – 18, 2014

TPC Four Seasons Resort

Irving, Texas

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,166

Purse: $6.9 million

with $1,242,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Sang-Moon Bae

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 14 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with two players from the top-ten #5 Matt Kuchar and #8 Jordan Spieth.The other top 50 players are #14 Dustin Johnson, #18 Charl Schwartzel, #20 Jason Duner, #21 Keegan Bradley, #24 Patrick Reed, #27 Brandt Snedeker, #28 Martin Kaymer, #32 Graham DeLaet, #38 Ryan Moore, #39 Louis Oosthuizen, #41 Harris English and #45 Gary Woodland.

The field includes 12 of the top 25 on the FedEx point standings for 2014.  Those players are #1 Jimmy Walker, #3 Matt Kuchar, #4 Patrick Reed, #5 Dustin Johnson, #6 Jordan Spieth, #7 Harris English, #13 Ryan Moore, #15 John Senden, #18 Martin Kaymer, #20 Brian Stuard, #22 Gary Woodland and #24 Graham DeLaet.

The field includes 11 players in the top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list. Those players are #2 Jimmy Walker, #3 Dustin Johnson, #4 Matt Kuchar, #5 Jordan Spieth, #6 Patrick Reed, #8 Harris English, #11 Martin Kaymer, #12 Ryan Moore, #19 Gary Woodland, #20 John Senden and #23 Graham DeLaet.

The field includes 9 players that have won 12 events on the PGA Tour this year: Jimmy Walker (Frys.com Open, Sony Open & AT&T Pebble), Ryan Moore (CIMB Classic), Dustin Johnson (WGC-HSBC Champions), Harris English (Mayakoba), Patrick Reed (Humana Challenge & WGC-Cadillac); John Senden (Valspar), Steven Bowditch (Valero Texas Open), Matt Kuchar (RBC Heritage) and Martin Kaymer (The Players).

The field includes five past champions: Sang-Moon Bae (2013), Jason Dufner (2012), Keegan Bradley (2011), Rory Sabbatini (2009) and Vijay Singh (2003).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the HP Byron Nelson field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the HP Byron Nelson in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the HP Byron Nelson.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

 

Check early Sunday morning for a look at who should win the HP Byron Nelson Classic.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the HP Byron Nelson Championship

Player The Players Wells Fargo Zurich Classic Volvo China RBC Heritage Valero Texas Maybank Malaysian Masters Shell Houston Arnold Palmer Valspar Champ. WGC Cadillac Puerto Rico
Matt Kuchar
(346.67 pts)
T17
(49.5)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(88)
T4
(26.67)
DNP T5
(93.33)
2
(66.67)
DNP T38
(4)
T13
(18.5)
DNP
Jordan Spieth
(303.33 pts)
T4
(120)
DNP DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
10
(13.33)
DNP T2
(133.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T20
(10)
T34
(8)
DNP
Martin Kaymer
(266.67 pts)
Win
(198)
T18
(32)
DNP DNP T23
(18)
DNP DNP T31
(25.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T58
(0)
DNP
Jimmy Walker
(187.83 pts)
T6
(90)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP T16
(11.33)
DNP T8
(66.67)
T24
(17.33)
DNP DNP T25
(12.5)
DNP
John Senden
(170.33 pts)
T26
(36)
DNP T29
(21)
DNP DNP T42
(2.67)
DNP T8
(66.67)
DNP T52
(0)
Win
(44)
DNP DNP
Gary Woodland
(166.17 pts)
T11
(58.5)
T18
(32)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T26
(32)
DNP T20
(10)
T8
(16.67)
T16
(17)
DNP
Erik Compton
(147 pts)
T34
(24)
DNP T5
(70)
DNP T68
(0)
WD
(-1.67)
DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
T5
(23.33)
T32
(6)
DNP DNP
Robert Streb
(139 pts)
DNP T23
(27)
T2
(100)
DNP DNP T72
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T14
(12)
Martin Flores
(133.33 pts)
T48
(3)
3
(90)
T52
(0)
DNP DNP T16
(11.33)
DNP DNP T17
(22)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T19
(10.33)
Rory Sabbatini
(129.33 pts)
T38
(18)
T8
(50)
T17
(33)
DNP T9
(30)
DNP DNP DNP DNP WD
(-1.67)
T70
(0)
DNP DNP
Andrew Svoboda
(122.67 pts)
DNP T44
(6)
T2
(100)
DNP DNP T26
(8)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T24
(8.67)
Brendon De Jonge
(80.67 pts)
70
(0)
T6
(60)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T36
(4.67)
DNP T37
(17.33)
T37
(8.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T54
(0)
DNP
Louis Oosthuizen
(80 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T2
(66.67)
25
(33.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T40
(5)
DNP
Justin Hicks
(79.83 pts)
T17
(49.5)
T69
(0)
DNP DNP T38
(8)
15
(11.67)
DNP DNP T43
(4.67)
T74
(0)
T32
(6)
DNP DNP
Brian Stuard
(78.5 pts)
T17
(49.5)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T60
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T43
(2.33)
Robert Garrigus
(78.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP T5
(70)
DNP 73
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T61
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
T4
(26.67)
DNP DNP
Kevin Kisner
(77.67 pts)
DNP T6
(60)
T34
(16)
DNP T38
(8)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP 68
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T49
(0.33)
Freddie Jacobson
(76.33 pts)
64
(0)
DNP T29
(21)
DNP DNP T16
(11.33)
DNP DNP T19
(20.67)
T10
(13.33)
T20
(10)
DNP DNP
Retief Goosen
(74.67 pts)
T48
(3)
T50
(1)
T21
(29)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T7
(36.67)
T31
(6.33)
T44
(2)
DNP DNP
Jeff Overton
(70.33 pts)
82
(0)
CUT
(-10)
4
(80)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T37
(8.67)
WD
(-1.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Ryan Moore
(67.17 pts)
T26
(36)
T18
(32)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
DNP T60
(0)
DNP T25
(12.5)
DNP
Steven Bowditch
(66.67 pts)
T48
(3)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
Win
(44)
DNP T26
(32)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T37
(4.33)
Ryo Ishikawa
(66 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T18
(21.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T31
(12.67)
T8
(16.67)
T25
(8.33)
DNP T19
(10.33)
David Toms
(63.67 pts)
DNP DNP T15
(35)
DNP T53
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T4
(26.67)
Jonathan Byrd
(63 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T14
(36)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T31
(12.67)
DNP DNP DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP T32
(6)
DNP T12
(12.67)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the HP Byron Nelson Championship

Player The Players Wells Fargo Zurich Classic Volvo China RBC Heritage Valero Texas Maybank Malaysian Masters Shell Houston Arnold Palmer Valspar Champ. WGC Cadillac Puerto Rico
D.A. Points
(-51.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
T52
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T62
(0)
DNP
John Peterson
(-36.67 pts)
T59
(0)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T67
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
James Driscoll
(-36.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T54
(0)
DNP T14
(12)
Ben Crane
(-34.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T43
(4.67)
DNP T32
(6)
DNP DNP
Ken Duke
(-30.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP T75
(0)
DNP T48
(1.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T82
(0)
DNP DNP
Bryce Molder
(-28.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
WD
(-1.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T35
(5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
D.H. Lee
(-27.5 pts)
WD
(-7.5)
CUT
(-10)
T75
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T58
(0)
DNP DNP
Tim Clark
(-27 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP DNP T38
(8)
DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T82
(0)
DNP T78
(0)
Johnson Wagner
(-27 pts)
CUT
(-15)
68
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T26
(8)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Aaron Baddeley
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T67
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T35
(5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Nelson event still struggles to get marquee players:

  • The Byron Nelson is a very complicated event.  Of all the tournaments on the PGA Tour it’s always the top in giving money away, the Salesmanship Club which runs things does a first class job.  Every year it raises more money than any other tournament, in 2013 it raised $5 million and since the Salesmanship Club’s inception more than $132 million has gone to charities.  Another plus, the tournament has been embraced by the local Dallas community and is always well attended.
  • But the dirty little secret on the tournament, despite the perfect location of TPC Four Seasons Resort and the ability to give a lot of folks good vantage points to all of the action the players don’t like the course.  Each year it’s voted one of the most unpopular courses.  When Byron Nelson was still alive out of respect to him they would show up, but since his death in 2005 marquee attendance has been low and the event doesn’t get the stellar fields it use to get.  This year the field is better than last year as their is 14 top-50 ranked players compared to 11 last year.
  • All of that is about to change as the Byron Nelson will move to a new course in 2019.  The course called Trinity Forest will be in Dallas so it will move away from Irving, Texas.  The course is being built by the Coore & Crenshaw design firm and is being built on an old landfill along Loop 12, east of Interstate 45.  The course right now is Northwest of town and near Dallas Ft.Worth airport.  The new course is on the opposition end of Dallas, south of the city.
  • Despite all of the changes that have been made to TPC Four Season it has never done the job in appeasing players.  So with a new course, that will be taylor made with this event in mind, it will become the sweetheart of the PGA Tour.  It’s funny, that was the thinking 12 years ago at the Shell Houston Open when they built their own course and things didn’t work out that way.  The reason the event gets marquee names is the date, a week before the Masters is a big draw.  But the course never became the sweetheart of the tour.  So will this change things?  Good question, guess we will have to wait until 2019 but one thing is for sure, the design team of Crenshaw and Coore are the best and if anyone can build a course that players will like, this is the team to do it.

Is the PGA Tour showing some humility?

  • In my business classes in college they taught that no matter what happens you never admit that things aren’t right or there could be a problem with something.  The thinking is that no matter how bad something is, if you have an upbeat and positive attitude you can make something that isn’t that great tolerable.  The PGA Tour has always been great on putting a positive spin on things, even if it’s not that great they make you think it’s worth a million bucks.  Another great business tactic of Tim Finchem and the boys of Ponte Vedra is if the news isn’t good, just don’t say anything and put the truth under lock and key.  So it surprised me when two touchy topics came up last week at the Players Championship and Tim Finchem was very frank and upfront on things.  The first was the date of the Players Championship.  Finchem has always been adamant that the best thing for the Players was to move it from it’s March date to May.  It got them away from the NCAA basketball playoffs and Finchem thought that being two weeks before the Masters didn’t give him the status of being on the stage as the other majors in golf.  By moving to May, they had no competition from other major events and it being a month after the Masters and a month before the U.S. Open would in the media and public eye give it major status.  We have had this change for seven years and frankly it’s a wash in all areas but one.  That is the course itself, because of the lack of wind in May it lacks the drama that wind brings.  The 17th hole windless is nothing but a nice easy wedge and a lot of folks have said that the March date is missed.  With the greens being in terrible shape this year, Finchem told the media that a change back to March has not been ruled out which surprises me.  I frankly think that the best thing that Tim could do is move the Players back to the week after the west coast swing and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens in the coming years.
  • Also talking about the west coast swing, when the WGC-Accenture Match Play finished, everyone thought that a sponsor would be found in a month or so and that everything would be ok.  Not the case, seems that the only date available is mid May and with no sponsorship many are speculating that the event may not be played in 2015.  Too bad but with all that has happened, in which you can’t get your top players to participate it doesn’t give a major company to incentive to fork over between $8 to $13 million to sponsor that event.  I just hope something will be resolved, but for the first time in a while Finchem and the Tour looks very vulnerable to the economic conditions.

Fantasy player watch:

Looking for that one player that hasn’t been very good in the last three years but I think is on the verge of contending again?  I think that Geoff Ogilvy could be that person.  His game has gotten better, he is now just that one round a tournament away from being in contention.  A perfect example of that was Geoff at the Players Championship.  After opening up with rounds of 69-70 and knocking on heavens door, he ruined things by shooting 76-78.  Just look at his body of work in 2014, I think that he is getting closure and may find himself in contention real, real soon.

Things you need to know about the HP Byron Nelson Classic:

  • This will be the 61st edition of the HP Byron Nelson Classic, which was formerly called the Dallas Open. The TPC at Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas has been the main site of the tournament since 1986.
  • The inaugural Dallas Open in 1944 was won by Byron Nelson by a whopping 12 strokes.  Three annual tournaments were staged with Nelson winning the first, then Snead winning the next followed by Hogan winning in 1946.  After that the city couldn’t find a sponsor for the tournament and after a lapse of 10 years James Ling sponsored the event beginning in 1956.  The tournament has been played every year since then with the exception of 1963 when the PGA Championship was played in Dallas and in 1965 when the tournament was switched from September to the spring.  In 1967 the Salesmanship club took over sponsorship and the following year the tournament was renamed after Byron Nelson, who was born just outside of Dallas and had a 630-acre ranch in Roanoke, Texas.  The tournament is the 9th oldest active event on the PGA Tour and along with the Arnold Palmer Invitational is the only event named after former players.

Course information:

TPC Four Seasons Resort

  • Irving, Texas
  • 7,166 yards     Par 35-35–70
  • The TPC Four Seasons Resort has a 76.0 rating and slope rating of 142 from the championship tees. The course is part of the TPC network and has members but is open to those who stay at the Four Season Resort. The tees are TifSport bermudaGrass, the fairways and round Bermudagrass while the greens are Bent.  In 2013 TPC Four Seasons was the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 70.413 average which is almost a stroke over par.
  • It was designed and built by Robert Trent Jones Jr. and opened in 1983.  The course was remodeled in 1986 by Jay Morrish, Byron Nelson and Ben Crenshaw.  The course is on 150 acres of former prairie land that was transformed into a course that can stretch up to 7,200 yards. The average green size is 6,00 square feet, which is pretty much the average on the PGA Tour.  It features 68 bunkers and water comes into play on eight of the 18 holes.
  • Over the years the course has had several changes, but the biggest one came after the 2007 tournament.  D.A. Weibring was hired and his company came in and did some major renovations.  Basically he came in and redid the greens, fairways and tees.  But he didn’t do the job off the cuff. He did a lot of research by asking every player on both the PGA Tour and the Champions Tour who played the course for feedback.  He also got help from Tour players J.J. Henry and Harrison Frazar as well as architect Steve Wolfard.   Other than a couple of holes like 11, which now is a short par 4 that is driveable, the course will be a lot different and will take a while for many to understand all of the rolls and angles.  Still, the layout is the same so those that have done well in the past will do well again.
  • One of the toughest holes is No. 3, a 490-yard, par-4 which has water nearly the entire length on the right and bunkers on the left of the fairway. Strong Texas winds prevail most of the year from the north in the cool months and from the south in the warm months.
  • The redesign was dramatic and included extensive tree landscaping, rebuilding of all greens, bunkers and tee boxes, and included the addition of a four-pond water cascade feature on No. 18.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the  HP Byron Nelson:

Key stat for the winner:

  • TPC at Four Season is a strategic, thinking man’s type of course. You look at some of the winners, players like Adam Scott, Vijay Singh, Jesper Parnevik, Loren Roberts, John Cook, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Scott Simpson, Nick Price and Fred Couples, and you can see what they have in common.
  • Experience has always been a key to winning, since the tournament has been played at the TPC at Four Seasons. Ted Purdy, Neal Lancaster, Robert Damron, Brett Wetterich, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley and Sang-Moon Bae are the only players that won for the first time.  We can call the Lancaster win a fluke since the tournament was curtailed to 36 holes due to rain, but can’t explain the Purdy, Damron and Wetterich wins other than to say they were playing great at the right time.  Still, experience on a renovated course isn’t much help as we saw in 2011 with first year attendee Keegan Bradley winning so the chances are even greater that a first-timer or someone not experienced at winning could prevail this week, just like Bae did last year.
  • Except for John Cook, Loren Roberts Shigeki Maruyama, all the winners since the tournament added one round at Cottonwood Valley in 1995 have been long hitters. That is because both courses tend to favor length and a player can get away with errant shots, especially at Cottonwood Valley. The question was with Cottonwood Valley dropping out, will length still be important? In looking at the stats, only two of the top 12 players were inside the top 15 of driving distance in 2008,  while in 2009 4 of the top-15.  In 2010 only two of the top-10 came through, 2 of the 12 in 2011, 4 of the 14 in 2012 and 3 of the top 10 last year so hitting it long really doesn’t matter.  Now looking at accuracy, of the same top 12 only three were inside the top-15 in 2008 while six of the top-15 were in the top-ten in 2009 with three of the top-10 in 2010, five in 2011 and four in 2012 and three last year so accuracy has become more important.
  •  So what is important to play well at the Byron Nelson?  Hitting lots of greens, since 1998 only four players (Jesper Parnevik in 2000, Shigeki Maruyama in 2002, Rory Sabbatini in 2009 and Jason Day in 2010) have been out of the top nine in greens hit. So it’s very key to been very keen on hitting greens.  In 2011 Keegan Bradley hit 47 of the 72 greens which ranked T6th while in 2012 Jason Dufner hit 58 of 72 greens which racked first, Sang-Moon Bae hit 53 of 72 and ranked T9th.
  • Now I don’t want to jinx the tournament, but weather in Texas can sometimes be iffy in May.  But not this week as right now forecasters are calling for a perfect week of weather with every day in the mid 80s with low humidity.  Considering how things were last Sunday at the Players, PGA Tour officials won’t have anything to fret about.

 

Who to watch for at the HP Byron Nelson Championship

Best Bets:

Keegan Bradley

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
2 T24 Win

Great record in this event, yes he missed the cut at the Players but he did that last year and finished 2nd at the Nelson, then in 2011 finished 72nd at the Players and won the Nelson. Look for a good week from him.

Jordan Spieth

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T68 T32 T16

Has been great all year and you have to think he is close to a win, could be this week.

Jimmy Walker

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T27 T29 CUT T53 T23 T35 T73

He is long overdue to play well in this event, has played well in his last two starts.

Best of the rest:

Martin Kaymer

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T5

Reason he is playing this week, was T5th in his only Nelson start last year, he has the patience and skill level to win two in a row.

Angel Cabrera

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T12

Started well last week at the Players, also played well in this event in his first start last year.

Charl Schwartzel

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
3

A good course for him, showed it last year finishing 3rd in his only start.

Graham DeLaet

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T10 T41 CUT

Close to time for him to win, could it be this week?

Solid contenders

Matt Kuchar

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T33 T15 T6 T39 T42 T39

Playing well, just doesn’t seem to play well on this course. Have to think that he knows what he is doing playing here every year.

Ryan Palmer

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T33 T9 2 CUT CUT CUT CUT T73 CUT CUT

Was T9th last year and 2nd in 2012 at the Nelson.

Jason Dufner

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T33 Win T8 CUT CUT

Is long overdue to play well again.

Gary Woodland

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T48 T24 T49 T32 CUT

Has the distance to do well and has been playing well of late.

Long shots that could come through:

Ryo Ishikawa

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T10

Was T10th last year, he needs to get going and this could be a good spot for him.

Marc Leishman

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T12 T3 CUT T12 T8

Looking to get hot again like he was at the beginning of the year, finished T3rd in 2012 and T12th at Nelson.

Morgan Hoffmann

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T5

Finished T5th last year plus good finish at the Players.

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