BlogWho will win at the Nelson on Sunday?

Things you need to know before Sunday’s final round:

A bunched up leaderboard, what does that mean for the final round?

That we are again going to get another close finish.  Just look at this chart of tournaments on the PGA Tour that have the closets finishes:

• Event                                                # of playoffs       # of one shot wins     Totals
• HP Byron Nelson                                 17                               16                     33
• Travelers Championship                      16                               17                     33
• *Shell Houston Open                           17                               16                     33
• RBC Canadian Open                           13                               18                     31
• *includes this year’s event

In just the last 50 years, the Nelson has had 17 playoffs and 16 events that were won by a shot.  So with ten players within 3 shots of leaders Louis Oosthuizen and Brendon Todd and 35 players within seven shots you know things will be close.

But at the same time with close calls, in the last 13 years, 8 third round leaders have won so if history tells us anything Oosthuizen and Todd have a 61.5% chance of winning on Sunday.

Will the final round be a David versus Goliath kind of day?

You have the final round pairing between Louis Oosthuizen, who won the British Open in 2010 and Brendon Todd whose resume of achievements including two Web.Com wins so in a way it is David vs. Goliath.  But let’s take this a step further, I think that Oosthuizen is more the Goliath’s on Sunday because I see a lot of talent in back of them and I can’t picture either one of those in the final grouping winning.

So I am saying that a major championship winner going into the final round of a PGA Tour event is an underdog?

Yes I am.  Oosthuizen has played great and has improved each day and on Saturday was 8 under in his last 14 holes.  But his game has not been that sharp statistically as he ranks 23rd in greens hit and 5th in strokes gained putting.  The thing that I question about Louis is his one year bout with back pain.  Talk about déjà vu it was a year ago in the final round in which the symptoms of his problems started when he was forced to withdraw on the Sunday of the Nelson due to neck pain.  It’s been a one year odyssey for him to get healthily again.  Even though he is saying he has no problems with his injuries, it was just a couple of months ago at the Match Play and Cadillac that he still was having problems with the back, so bad that he couldn’t start the Honda Classic.  Who knows if divine intervention is setting in but I would still worry about him.  One last thing, to win the Nelson you have to be a great ball striker, which Oosthuizen is but you have to be a great scrambler, right now he ranks 191st in that stat this year so that is why I don’t have much faith in him.

So what problems do you I have with Todd?

A spotty record and experience.  I go to our within 5 of the lead going into the final round and in looking at Todd’s resume of work there is nothing that tells us that he will be the tower of granite on Sunday.  In 76 starts Todd has only finished three times in the top-ten,  he has never experienced the rarefied air of playing in the final group on Sunday so I think he will be out of his element.  This could be an case of a water glass being more than half empty; it does have some water in it. One thing going for him is the fact that he was part of the winning Georgia team in which his teammates included Russell Henley, Harris English and former roommate Chris Kirk so he will have a lot of Georgia support from these guys who have won on the PGA Tour.

So who do we look for to conquer the Nelson on Sunday?

Here is a couple of guys with some good reasons.

First there is Gary Woodland.  He could have easily been in the leader if not for a very ugly double bogey on the par 5, seventh hole on Saturday.  He has the length and is among the leaders one of the best in greens hit ranking T6th.  I have looked at his progress this year and he has knocked on the door a few times including last week at the Players were a poor final round has messed him up.  Again the experience factor of being close but not playing well could turn around for him.

Mike Weir – Yes don’t poop-poop him because of the fact that he hasn’t had a top-ten since his sixth place finish at the 2010 Humana.  That’s a long time ago, but Weir has been struggling with elbow problems for over five years now and at 44 years old many thought he was just going to have to wait until he turned 50.  Well he has a chance to put all of that right on Sunday, I will be rooting for him but the sensible me says that he will be overwhelmed with all of the hoopla on Sunday

So were do I think the winner will come from?

There are four players at 8 under, Padraig Harrington, Marc Leishman, Graham DeLaet and Morgan Hoffmann.  If you give me even odds on these four against the field, I would take that bet in a heartbeat.  Harrington has really struggled but he knows how to win and just has to put it into principle.

Leishman started the year on fire and has cooled down but I like what he has done at the Byron Nelson in past years.

The same with Morgan Hoffman, his record this year isn’t the greatest but in his only Nelson start last year did finish T5th so he could be someone that does well.  But of the four I am putting the most stock into Graham Delaet who has had a very good year and was T-10th last year at the Nelson.

Anybody else?

This is a tricky question because there are so many folks close to the leaders if a Matt Kuchar shots 64 on Sunday it sounds great on paper, but being six back and 11 players in front of him I see one of those guys shooting a 66 or a 65.  There just isn’t much wiggle room for those that are more than four back to shot up the leaderboard, unless someone shoots a 60 or a 61 which is possible but highly unlikely when you look at the winners of the Nelson.  The lowest final round by a champion since playing at the TPC Four Seasons (going back to 1983) is a 64 by Rory Sabbatini so again don’t look for that miracle round to power someone out of the pack.  Again look for a tight final round and another playoff to determine the winner.

Below is a list of the top-37 players on the leader board going to three under which is 7  shots back of Louis Oosthuizen and Brendon Todd.