BlogWho will win at Memorial on Sunday?

Things you need to know before Sunday’s final round:

Gosh golf is fun to watch again, what gives?

Since the Masters, we have seen some good play from the marquee names we are used to seeing at the top of the leaderboard.  We saw Bubba Watson win the Masters and since Matt Kuchar, Martin Kaymer, Adam Scott and even Rory McIlroy have won.  We have had Brendon Todd and Seung-Yul Noh slip their the cracks to win for the first time, but I can’t stress the importance of having players like #1 Adam Scott, Rory McIlroy, Matt Kuchar and Bubba Watson winning

So why are the marquee players doing well again?

Frankly they are playing which is news.  Guys like Adam Scott and Rory McIlroy only played sparingly until the Masters, now they are playing more.  With the bulk of the big events upon us, the marquee players are now warming up and ready to make runs at the U.S. Open, British Open, PGA Championship and along with the FedEx Cup playoff events and the Ryder Cup.

What’s happening at the Memorial?

After breaking off his engagement, Rory McIlroy won the BMW PGA Championship, hoped a plane across the Atlantic and shot an opening round 63, the lowest opening round in the 39 year history of the Memorial.  But on the seventh hole McIlroy caught his spikes on some grass and twisted his knee that caused him pain during the round.  Of course when you’re playing well you don’t feel that pain, but in the second round the knee played a role as he was seven over on the front nine and went on to shoot 78, 15 shots higher.  During the second round, Paul Casey shot a second straight 66 to take the lead.  Casey, a former Ryder Cup player who many thought would be the games next superstar.  After winning the BMW PGA Championship in 2009, Casey rose to 3rd in the world ranking but, had another great year in 2010 and then in 2011 before the bottom fell out.  He endured injuries to his shoulder in a skiing accident and his toe that kept him winless for more than two years. By the time he got healthy again his personal life went into the dumper as he had endured a divorce.  In 2013 he worked hard on his game but when he missed the cut in the BMW PGA Championship it had to be the low point of his life.  He played the U.S. Open and finished T45th but was down to 165th in the world rankings.  He started the comeback a month later when he won the Irish Open and its been a work in progress.  2014 hasn’t been the best as inconsistency has been his problem, but in looking at his record for the year you can see he has had some good moments.  So maybe this week will be a good omen for him, yes he shot 76 on Saturday with a bad stretch of bogeys on 10, 12 and 13 then finishing with a double bogey at 18 but that has been his problem, that one bad stretch of nine holes in a tournament..  Taking the lead in the third round was Bubba Watson, who after shooting 66-69 started out strongly with birdies at 2, 3, 5, 6 7 and even with a bogey at 4 shot 32.  He traded a bogey at 11 with bogies at 15 and 18 to shot 69 and lead Scott Langley by a shot.

Who else is close?

In second place is Scott Langley.  Now in the past we would say “bet the farm against him winning” but now, in the year of the faceless champion anything is possible. In a way, Langley may be just like Brendon Todd was two weeks ago at the Nelson.  Two weeks ago I didn’t think he had a chance and he came through to win.  In hindsight, you could see the reason why, he was very secure money wise so he didn’t have the same pressures that others would have.  Now for Langley in looking he is in the same boat as Todd.  Langley has been third two times and has earned just under $1.4 million in just two years on tour.  So with that thinking Langley may be a good choice.  One thing that should be mentioned is the tournament itself, the Memorial has only been won once by a first-timer and that was Roger Maltibie in its first year.  That’s a pretty solid record, but as the Players Championship learned when Craig Perks became the first to win that event in his first start, anything is possible.  In third place at 10 under is Hideki Matsuyama, who I think has a big future in professional golf.  I am saying it now, but I can see Matsuyama playing an important role in both the U.S. Open and British Open.  His game is good right now and mark my words, he will be the first Japanese player to win a major.  At 9 under in fourth place is Adam Scott, who is also playing well, his 68 on Saturday was close to flawless until he made bogey at 18.  Now at 8 under is a big group of players led by Jordan Spieth, Charl Schwartzel, Brendon Todd and Casey.  So there are a lot of good players knocking on the door.

One fact that is indisputable.

18 times a 54 hole leader has gone on to win. It’s also interesting to note that not many winners have come from far back with low rounds.  Look at the list of winners and look at their final round scores.  There is a trend of going low in the final round to win, the last seven winners have shot in the 60s on Sunday to win so expect that again this year.

Below is a list of the top-30 players on the leader board going to five under which is 7  shots back of Bubba Watson