BlogFor the weekend at U.S. Open

Things you need to know about the weekend:

“Nice car, I love those Bavarians, ah so meticulous.”
Don Henley from the song “The Garden Of Allah”

When you talk about meticulous at the U.S. Open, Martin Kaymer’s two rounds of 65 could be at the top of the list.  130 has never been shot to start the U.S. Open, let’s go a step further 130 has only been shot twice to start a major championship.  That was by Nick Faldo in the 1992 British Open and Brandt Snedeker in the 2012 British Open.  In the case of Faldo, he only won by a shot while Snedeker shot 73-74 and was four back of Ernie Els at Lytham.  But in each case the field was closer after two round than Kaymer’s six shot lead.

Let’s go a step further on this search of big leads.  In the history of the U.S. Open, the biggest 2nd round lead is 6 by Tiger Woods in 2000 and Rory McIlroy in 2011.  Both of them went on to comfortable wins.

In looking at 36 hole leads in major championships, the biggest in the last century of play was at the 1934 British Open, Henry Cotton shot 67-65 at Royal St. George and had a nine shot lead.  Even though shooting 72-79 in the last two rounds it was good enough to win by five over Sid Brews.

The point I am making is that Kaymer has put on a great show and should cruise to victory.  Now we are saying that Kaymer is six ahead.  He is over Brendon Todd, who frankly I don’t see making a big weekend charge.  After that Kaymer has a seven shot lead over Kevin Na and Brandt Snedeker, again not the type of guys that you can count on the weekend of a major.  You have to go down to 2 under to see some folks with experience in majors with Dustin Johnson, Keegan Bradley and Henrik Stenson.  Johnson, Bradley or Stenson are probably not happy about giving Kaymer a 8 shot advantage.

Lets talk about Kaymer’s meticulous two days of golf.  First it wasn’t perfect, he did bogey the 7th hole on Thursday.  But he was bogey-free on Friday.  As for stats, he has only missed three fairways all week and is T-2nd.  This is a big key that means he only has had to deal with the pine and shrubs three times off the fairway.  As for greens hit, he has hit 26 of 36 which ranks T-5th.  That and along with the number of putts which is 54 is key because he ranks T4th in that.  When your ranking is low in both putting and greens hit, you win.  Lastly he has played the par 4s in 5 under and been perfect on the par 5s, making birdie on all of them.  Two last key stats, Kaymer is one of 25 players in the field without a three-putt while in three sand traps is a perfect 3 for 3 in getting it in the hole.

So that goes back to our Don Henley song, “I love those Bavarians, ah so meticulous.”

Looking at Kaymer’s two days:

While I am at it, let’s look at Kaymer in general, he is a very cool customer that has the reputation of closing it down.  As Warner Wolf use to say famously “Let’s go to the videotape”, I can say “Let’s go to Golfstats.”  Take a look at how Kaymer is with the second round lead, he has won four of the seven tournament he has led or co-led after the second round of the PGA and European Tour.  All I can say just look at how he won the 2010 PGA Championship in a playoff and the Players Championship last month, gosh they can save some time by just putting his name on the trophy right now.

But in golf you have to play 72 holes and at the U.S. Open anything can happen.  Just look at Tiger Woods at the U.S. Open at Pebble in 2000.  He may of won it by 15 shots, but little is said that Tiger is the only player to make a triple and still win a modern major.  Tiger tripled the third hole in the third round.

How about Greg Norman, he had a six shot lead going into the final round of the 1996 Masters and lost.  I will edit the wording but “crap happens” and anything can happen over the weekend.

For Kaymer, the mission is just to make par after par after par for 36 holes.  So how has been historical at the U.S. Open for the second round leader to just shot par over the weekend?  Tell you below.

Since 1980, there have been 34 U.S. Opens this is the 35th.

With Martin Kaymer having such a big lead, we can point out this U.S. Open fact for Kaymer to think about.

If Kaymer plays the next 36 holes in even par or better, he will probably win.  Damn right he will win because the final 36 holes is even tougher than the first.

Here is the reason.

If you took all of the 36 hole leaders since 1980 and gave them even par over the last 36 holes, here are the results you get:

• 47 players have had the 2nd round lead or a share of the lead since 1980.
• Of those 47 players, 12 players won.
• Of those 12 winners, 6 players won by shooting par or better, but lets forgot about the 12 winners and focus on the other 35.
• Of the 35 players left over that didn’t win the U.S. Open here are the results if they would of shot even par over the course of the final 36 holes:
• 2 would of lost by 3 shots (Joey Rasset and John Mahaffey in 1983)
• 1 would of lost by 2 shots (George Burns in 1981)
• 3 would of lost by 1 shot (Bruce Devlin in 1982, Tom Lehman in 1997 & Vijay Singh in 2003)
• Now of the 29 others
• 7 would of forced a playoff
• 3 would of won by a shot
• 13 would of won by 2 shots
• 1 would of won by 3 shots (Payne Stewart in 1998)
• 1 would of won by 4 shots (Ricky Barnes in 2009)
• 2 would of won by 5 shots (T.C. Chen in 1985 & Greg Norman in 1995)
• 2 would of won by 6 shots (Gil Morgan in 1992 & Steve Stricker in 2006)

The reason those 35 players didn’t win?  Instead of shooting even par, the 35 averaged 7.5 shots over par for their final 36 holes.

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Let’s narrow the years,  You will notice that between 1980 and 1983 there were four guys that didn’t win. So here is the new premise:

Since 1984, of the 31 players that had the 36 hole lead or a share of it (does not include the 11 that led or co-led and went on to win), if the 31 would of shot even par over the last 36 holes, only two of them would have lost, while seven would of tied forcing a playoff, while 22 would of won.  So you can say that of the 31 of the 29 would of either won or tied.

Phil Mickelson and Friday the 13th

Growing up a Dodger fan, I remember that good old saying “Wait until next year”  That was reserved for the Brooklyn Dodgers who for a decade got to the World Series and lost, until 1955.

Since 1999 when Phil Mickelson lost to Payne Stewart we have been saying the same thing about Mickelson, who can’t seem to win.  He has been runner-up six times and he probably won’t make it a seventh time as 70-73 and is 13 shots back.  For Phil it’s easy to see why he is 13 back, he has taken putts 65 putts that rank T135th in the field.  He has taken 11 more putts than Kaymer so you can see why he is so far back.  Mickelson has also had four three-putt greens, again a disadvantage to Kaymer, who hasn’t made a single three-putt.  For Mickelson he has made eight bogeys, seven more than Kaymer and only five birdies, six less than Martin.  So you can see why Mickelson is so far back.

Can he make up the 13 shots, of course he can.  He can go shot 65-65 while Kaymer shots 70-73, but Phil has 27 players ahead of him, that is a big disadvantage.  In U.S. Open history, only one champion has been behind double digit and that was Lou Graham in 1975. He was 11 back of Tom Watson and T-26th, shot 73-71 to tie John Mahaffey and beat him in a playoff.  So you can see the odds are way stacked up on Phil.

So I guess we have to bruise off the old “wait until next year” slogan again for Phil, too bad.  It’s a shame that I have been waiting for this weekend since Phil won the British Open and he isn’t even close.

Below is a list of the top-43 players on the leader board going to three over which is 13 shots back of Martin Kaymer