BlogWho will win at Pinehurst Sunday?

Things you need to know before Sunday’s final round:

So did the course got the best of everyone on Saturday?

In a way, it did but if you look at the hardcore number that the course played to a 73.84 average it wasn’t super tough.  What happened was the guys at the top played terrible.  If you look at Martin Kaymer’s round of 72, there is two ways of looking at it.  His 72 was 2 over par for the day that many may feel is high.  But if you look at it by the average score of the field it’s just a notch below 2 under.  For the week the average score is 73.20, let’s call it an even 73, that means Kaymer is 17 under for the week, pretty awesome total.

You said the guys at the top played bad, how bad?

Brendon Todd was in second place but shot 79 and he is now T30th, 12 shots back.  Those that were T-3rd on Friday evening, Kevin Na had a 73 while Brandt Snedeker had a 72.  Those T-5th at 2 under, Brooks Koepka had 72, Brendon De Jonge had 73, Keegan Bradley had 76 so all of these players lost ground on Kaymer.  Two players that were at 2 under did make up some ground on Kaymer, both Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson shot 70 but they are both at 2 under, six back that is a big number.  Only two players broke 70 on Saturday, Rickie Fowler and Erik Compton, they climbed into a T2nd at 3 under and will start Sunday’s final round five back of Kaymer.

So how was Kaymer’s day?

With the pressure of being in the final group on a Saturday of a major, Kaymer’s 72 wasn’t bad.  He looked like a person that just wanted to make pars as he only had one birdie, on 18 along with five bogeys.  But have to think his key was after hitting a poor tee shot at 5 into the waste area, he was able to get his second shot five feet away on the par 5 and make the putt for eagle.  Kaymer didn’t hit the ball as well on Saturday as he did in the first two days.   He hit 10 of 14 fairways but wasn’t as sharp from the fairway hitting only 10 of 18 greens.  He took 30 putts that is respectable and on the whole his day was pretty productive.

So historically how is a five shot lead going into the final round?

Below is a chart that shows how players that led by 5 or better have done in U.S. Open history:

• 3rd round leader                          led by                      result
• Martin Kaymer in 2014                  leads by 5                ???
• Laurie Auchterlonie in 1902           led by 5                    shot final round 77 and won by 6
• Mike Brady in 1919                        led by 5                    shot final round 80 and lost to Walter Hagen in a playoff
• Bobby Jones in 1930                     led by 5                    shot final round 75 and won by 2
• Fred Herd in 1898                          led by 6                    shot final round 84 and won by 7
• Willie Anderson in 1903                 led by 6                    shot a final round 82 and beat David Brown in a playoff
• Johnny Goodman in 1933             led by 6                     shot final round 76 and won by a shot
• James Barnes in 1921                   led by 7                     shot final round 72 and won by nine
• Rory McIlroy in 2011                      led by 8                     shot final round 69 and won by 8
• Tiger Woods in 2000                      led by 10                    shot final round 67 and won by 15

So you can see in U.S. Open history only once has a lead of five or more not won, and that was by Mike Brady.

Frankly the only thing that Kaymer has to fear is Pinehurst itself.  Case in point, in 2005 Retief Goosen went into Sunday with a commanding three shot lead over Olin Browne and Jason Gore.  All three shot in the 80s on Sunday.  Gore an 84 finishing T49th, Browne an 80 finishing T23rd and Goosen an 81 finishing T-11th.  Michael Campbell was just another face in the crowd four shots back shot 69 in the final round and won by two shots over Tiger Woods.  Kaymer is a lot like Retief Goosen so Kaymer will have to think about it, yes 80 is the furthest in his mind but nine years ago Retief Goosen never thought he could shot 80

So is Kaymer the lock of the year?

In a way, just look at his round today.  I bet that he will do the same thing tomorrow.  He is just too smooth and as I said yesterday “meticulous” in the way he plays so don’t expect anything over 73.

So is there an “Arnold Palmer 65” out there for Sunday?

That round in 1960 at Cherry Hills is the most iconic round in U.S. Open history and one of the best in championship golf.  Can someone do that tomorrow?  Probably not, the course is playing too hard, and the first hole isn’t drivable.  It will be interesting to see how Mike Davis and the USGA sets up the course.  If it was me, I would make it easier than today.  I would give players a chance of driving the 3rd green, the 7th green and the 13th green.  Let someone shot 65 on Sunday and let’s see if it’s either Rickie Fowler, Erik Compton, Henrik Stenson or Dustin Johnson.  If they can shoot 65, they could give Kaymer a run for his money and make things very interesting.  But if the USGA is hard-core and sets it up like Saturday, sorry put Kaymer’s name on the trophy tonight.

Would an Erik Compton win be the greatest sports story of the last couple of decades?

You bet, there is not a person around that don’t want to see this double heart recipient win.  He has had a hard life and made the most of it, be great to see him win.  The reality of it he just doesn’t have the fire-power to do it.

So does Fowler have the fire-power?

Yes but again he will have to shot at least another 67, 68 at worst.  I just find it hard to believe that Fowler or Compton can do back to back 67s.

Anybody else?

Of course anything is possible, Michael Campbell won in 2005, Lucas Glover won in 2009, so Erik Compton and Rickie Fowler fit’s this mold.  But can Brandt Snedeker make up seven shots, could Matt Kuchar, Brooks Koepka and Kevin Na make up eight shots, probably not.

Below is a list of the top-13 players on the leader board going to one over which is 9 shots back of Martin Kaymer