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BlogQuick Loans Preview and Picks

Quicken Loans National

June 26 – 29, 2014

Congressional C.C. (Blue Course)

Bethesda, Md.

Par: 71 / Yardage:

Purse: $6.5 million

with $1,170,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Bill Haas

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 13 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with four players from the top-ten #5 Tiger Woods, #6 Jason Day, #9 Jordan Spieth and #10 Justin Rose. The other top 50 players are #19 Jason Dufner, #24 Keegan Bradley, #29 Patrick Reed, #30 Webb Simpson, #32 Brandt Snedeker, #34 Bill Haas, #42 Hunter Mahan, #48 Matt Every and #49 Gary Woodland.  Last year this event had 12 top-50 players so their are two less playing this year.

The field includes 9 of the top 25 on the FedEx point standings for 2014.  Those players are #5 Jordan Spieth, #8 Patrick Reed, #9 Brendon Todd, #11 Matt Every, #15 Webb Simpson, #20 Charles Howell III, #22 Gary Woodland, #23 Ryan Palmer and #25 Will MacKenzie.

The field includes 7 players in the top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list. those players are #5 Jordan Spieth, #6 Patrick Reed, #11 Brendon Todd, #12 Webb Simpson, #13 Matt Every, #22 Gary Woodland and #23 Jason Day.

The field includes 9 players that have won 10 events on the PGA Tour this year: Webb Simpson (Shriners Hospitals); Patrick Reed (Humana & Cadillac); Jason Day (WGC-Accenture); Matt Every (Palmer); Seung-Yul Noh (Zurich); J.B. Holmes (Wells Fargo) Brendon Todd (Byron Nelson); Adam Scott (Colonial) and Hideki Matsuyama (Memorial).

The field includes five of the six past champion: Bill Haas (2013), Tiger Woods (2012 & ’09), Nick Watney (2011), Justin Rose (2010) and K.J. Choi (2007).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Quicken Loans National field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Quicken Loans National field in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Quicken Loans National field.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Quick Loans National

Player Travelers Irish Open U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Lyoness Open Memorial Nordea Masters Colonial BMW PGA Byron Nelson Open Espana The Players Wells Fargo
Brendon Todd
(230.67 pts)
DNP DNP T17
(66)
DNP DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP Win
(88)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Jason Day
(200.67 pts)
T18
(32)
DNP T4
(160)
DNP DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Keegan Bradley
(196.67 pts)
T31
(19)
DNP T4
(160)
DNP DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP DNP DNP T29
(14)
DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP
Erik Compton
(184.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T2
(200)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T34
(8)
DNP
Jordan Spieth
(159.33 pts)
DNP DNP T17
(66)
DNP DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP T14
(24)
DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP T4
(40)
DNP
Justin Rose
(157.67 pts)
DNP DNP T12
(76)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP 25
(25)
DNP DNP T4
(40)
5
(23.33)
Aaron Baddeley
(151.67 pts)
4
(80)
DNP T23
(54)
DNP DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP T51
(0)
DNP T29
(14)
DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP
Billy Horschel
(149.33 pts)
DNP DNP T23
(54)
T6
(60)
DNP T15
(23.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T26
(12)
DNP
Marc Leishman
(140.5 pts)
T11
(39)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T3
(60)
DNP T23
(13.5)
DNP
Carl Pettersson
(136.67 pts)
T7
(55)
DNP DNP T3
(90)
DNP T62
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T45
(3.33)
DNP CUT
(-5)
T69
(0)
K.J. Choi
(129.83 pts)
T2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T28
(14.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T13
(18.5)
CUT
(-3.33)
Brandt Snedeker
(126.67 pts)
T11
(39)
DNP T9
(90)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T45
(3.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T48
(1)
DNP
Brendon De Jonge
(114 pts)
T42
(8)
DNP T28
(44)
DNP DNP T28
(14.67)
DNP T30
(13.33)
DNP T29
(14)
DNP 70
(0)
T6
(20)
Webb Simpson
(99 pts)
DNP DNP T45
(10)
T3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
T38
(4)
Bill Haas
(96.67 pts)
DNP DNP T35
(30)
DNP DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP DNP DNP T26
(12)
T44
(2)
J.B. Holmes
(95 pts)
DNP DNP T17
(66)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T75
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
Win
(44)
James Hahn
(91.67 pts)
77
(0)
DNP DNP T6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
Troy Merritt
(90 pts)
T67
(0)
DNP DNP 2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Charles Howell III
(87.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T28
(22)
DNP T57
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T3
(60)
DNP CUT
(-5)
T18
(10.67)
Brian Harman
(83.67 pts)
T42
(8)
DNP DNP T6
(60)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T30
(13.33)
DNP T29
(14)
DNP CUT
(-5)
T65
(0)
Brendan Steele
(75.33 pts)
T5
(70)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T26
(12)
T30
(6.67)
Freddie Jacobson
(73 pts)
T31
(19)
DNP DNP T60
(0)
DNP T49
(0.67)
DNP T3
(60)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP 64
(0)
DNP
Jason Dufner
(69.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP T48
(1.33)
DNP T48
(1)
DNP
Andrew Svoboda
(69.33 pts)
T71
(0)
DNP DNP T6
(60)
DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T44
(2)
Gary Woodland
(66.83 pts)
DNP DNP T52
(0)
DNP DNP T57
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP T11
(19.5)
T18
(10.67)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Quicken Loans National

Player Travelers Irish Open U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Lyoness Open Memorial Nordea Masters Colonial BMW PGA Byron Nelson Open Espana The Players Wells Fargo
Chad Collins
(-56.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Jim Renner
(-46.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T68
(0)
DNP DNP T69
(0)
Mark Wilson
(-42.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T72
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
T23
(9)
Y.E. Yang
(-39.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
T23
(9)
Trevor Immelman
(-33.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T45
(3.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Roberto Castro
(-31.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-20)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
T8
(16.67)
Oliver Goss
(-30 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Steven Bowditch
(-29 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T48
(1)
DNP
James Driscoll
(-28.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T64
(0)
DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
Derek Ernst
(-28.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-5)
T30
(6.67)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

He’s back.  The question for many is if Tiger may be wearing thin.  Of course, when I say that ratings will be high this week, Tiger does draw them in and after seeing the terrible ratings at the U.S. Open you know a lot of folks are happy to see Tiger.  But for some like myself I can’t seem to get that interested in him in events like this.  Sorry, not that it isn’t a big deal to have Tiger in it,  I will watch if Tiger is in contention on Sunday, but I want to see Tiger contending in majors, not just playing in another PGA Tour event.  I would also like to see Tiger play in other events.  In the last five years he has added only two new events to his schedule, Frys.com and Greenbrier.  We could point out that both of these events Tiger had some business dealings with those involved in those events so I can’t count that.  The fact is Tiger has won 25 different tournaments on the PGA Tour with four of them not on tour anymore (AT&T Classic, Disney, Buick Open & Ford Championship Doral).  So that means that Tiger has won 21 of the 45 events that are active on tour.  Of those 45 events Tiger has never played in 14 of them ( has played in CIMB and WGC-HSBC when they weren’t considered official PGA Tour events so I don’t count them).  Of the remaining ones he has played in, Tiger hasn’t been back to Shriners (Las Vegas) since 1997, Phoenix since 2001, Northern Trust since 2006, RBS Heritage since 1999, Byron Nelson since 2005, Colonial since 1997 and RBC Canadian since 2001.  Of course he won’t play in places like Puerto Rico or Tahoe, but wouldn’t it be great if Tiger would play at least once in the Sony Open or the Humana or Houston or Travelers just to name a few?

So the big question this week will be what is the state of Tiger’s game.  I think Woods would be elated with a top-ten finish, maybe just making the cut.  The reason I am this way is the fact that Tiger’s game wasn’t in a great place before the surgery, and I don’t think that by playing he will get rid of what was bothering him with his swing before.  Who knows maybe the back was what caused the poor swing guess we will see in the coming weeks.

You can never count Tiger out, I remember in 2006 when Tiger’s father Earl died, Tiger took a couple of months off.  He came back at the U.S. Open at Winged Foot and his game was terrible as he missed the cut after shooting a pair of 76s, his worst performance in the U.S. Open.  Many wondered about his game, but three weeks later he played at the Western Open and finished T2nd, then two weeks later won the British Open at Hoylake along with the next four tournaments after that.  So we just don’t know what is up with Tiger and can’t put much into this week’s appearance.  One thing, you know that Ryder Cup captain Tom Watson will be watching because he will have to make a decision in September if he is going to give Woods one of his wild card picks.

Also have to give a note on Michelle Wie’s win at Pinehurst.  What a great thing not only for the LPGA Tour but golf in general.  She is fun to watch, and it could be a great next couple of years if she starts contending and winning more.  We have talked about how it’s been the year of “faceless” winners on the PGA Tour.  Just look at the list of winners on the LPGA Tour.  The cream has risen, and that list of champions are good making the LPGA a real contender for people to watch.

Tournament information:

At the start of the 2007 PGA season, it appeared that The International, the PGA’s lone stop in Colorado, would be gearing up to host its 21st annual golf tournament. However, doubts began to arise about the tournament’s future very early on in the season as the search for a corporate sponsor was at a stand-still. On February 8, 2007, tournament director Greg Vickers announced that the 2007 International would not be played, primarily due to the lack of corporate sponsorship.

As soon as the date opened up on the PGA Tour calendar, Tiger Woods, who has expressed a desire to host a tournament in the past, entered into discussions with the PGA Tour. His goal was to create an exclusive event that would not only fill the year’s void left by the demise of The International, but for years to come. On March 7, with less than one month of negotiations behind the two parties, Tiger Woods and the PGA Tour announced that the Washington D.C. area would play host to the inaugural AT&T National. The event took over for the Booz Allen Classic, which folded after the July 2006 event after a 39 year run with 27 of those in the Washington D.C. area. The 2007 event was played at The Congressional Country Club in nearby Bethesda, MD.

Despite the short time in getting it ready, the first year went off well, and it looked like the future of this event was going to be great.  Unfortunely things changed the following year as Tiger Woods had surgery right before the event and was not only able to play, but he couldn’t even attend the event. He did return the next year and won.

The event had a great run at Congressional and with it holding the U.S. Open in 2011 it needed to rebuild its greens.  So the AT&T National moved in 2010 for two years to the Philadelphia area with Aronimink Golf Club having a  successful run with Justin Rose and Nick Watney winning.  The tournament returned to Congressional in 2012 and will hold the event this year before it moves to Robert Trent Jones for 2015.  The RTJ Club hosted the Presidents Cup four times, most recently in 2005.  The change was brought on when Congressional members didn’t want the event on a permanent basis, so they voted to bring it back in 2016, 2018 and 2020.  Look for the event to move around the Washing D.C. area, possibly going for a year to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms and Trump National Golf Club, which is east of Washington and near Dulles Airport.

 

Course information:

  • Congressional Golf Club
  • Bethesda, MD.
  • 7,569 yards     Par 36-35–71
  • From the beginning, Congressman Oscar Bland and O.R. Lubring envisioned The Congressional Country Club as a bond between Washington-based businessman and politicians. In 1921, the two founders took their idea to then Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover in hopes of gaining the approval of one of Washington’s biggest power brokers. Hoover loved the idea and agreed to become the Club’s President from the breaking of ground in 1922 to its inauguration in 1924.  Today the club membership is more family orientated. Some of the original founding members include Calvin Coolidge, Warren Harding, Woodrow Wilson, William H. Taft, Harvey S. Firestone, William C. Carnegie, William Randolph Hearst and Walter P. Chrysler.
  • Congressional has a big list of championships played on it including; the 1964, ’97 and 2011 U.S. Open, the 1976 PGA Championships, the 1995 U.S. Senior Open along with the site of the Kemper Open between 1980-1986, the 2005 Booz Allen Classic along with five of the seven Quicken Loans National.
  • Congressional boasts two championship courses, the Blue and Gold; however, the Blue course has played host to every professional event at Congressional. The course was originally designed by Devereaux Emmet in 1922. Since the Blue course’s creation, there have been three major changes to the golf course. Bobby Jones, in 1957, built nine holes that would eventually become part of the Gold Course. The final nine holes were completed by Rees Jones in 1989. In 2006, Rees Jones returned to The Congressional to redesign the Par 3 18th. The tee box and the green was flipped-flopped, and the hole now plays a lot harder with the water coming more into play. The hole is now the 10th hole, and each proceeding hole was shifted backward accordingly.
  • The Blue course received acclaim when it was ranked 89th among “America’s 100 Greatest Golf Courses” by Golf Digest in 2005 and most recently ranked 77th in its 20013-14 list. It’s 59th on Golf Magazines top 100 in the United States.  With a course rating, of 75.4, slope rating of 138, Congressional could be one of the most difficult stops on tour this year. The fairways tees and greens are bentgrass while the rough is a combination of fescue, rye and Blue grass making it very hard to get out and control the ball.
  • The Congressional Blue Course can be described as having a fair amount of bunkers in almost unfair places. Unlike most courses, the 102 bunkers that line Congressional are placed in the vicinity of where golfers are aiming. No hole better exemplifies this than the par 3 2nd. The 211-yard hole has six bunkers (front, left, and right) that guard the large, undulating green.
  • In 2013 Congressional played to a 72.124 scoring average, just over a shot over par.  It ranked as the 8th hardest course on the PGA Tour.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Quicken Loans National:

Key stat for the winner:

Congressional played host to the 1997 and 2011 U.S. Open. Most believe that, like it would be in a U.S. Open, the key statistic will be fairways hit off the tee. The rough is at 4 inches which will be costly for players that don’t hit it straight. Just look at the winners of the last six AT&T’s and ’11 U.S. Open played at Congressional to see how key these stats are for the winners. In 2007 K.J. Choi was T5th in fairways hit, T5th in greens hit and T5th in putting which is a deadly combination. In 2008 Anthony Kim was T12th in greens hit and T8th in putting while in 2009 Tiger was T7th in fairways hit, T3rd in greens hit and T13th in putting.  When Rory McIlroy won the ’11 Open at Congressional, he was first in greens hit.  In 2012 Tiger was T9th in putting so it just shows you have to play week in the fundamentals of golf to win at Congressional.  Last year greens hit was the key for champion Bill Haas who ranked T4th while he was T11th in putting.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Experience at Congresssional will be a big help, look for players that have played at Congressional in the 2011 U.S. Open and the last two Quicken Loans to have the advantage.
  • If you want to see who can win, just look at the winners at courses like Quail Hollow, Riviera, Muirfield Village, Colonial, East Lake or even a modern course like Bay Hill or TPC Sawgrass.  I would almost bet the farm that whoever wins this week, will also have a title from one of those courses, just like Bill Haas had last year (won at Riviera & East Lake).
  • Hitting greens will be at a premium, just like in a U.S. Open hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week.
  • The par 4s are some of the best in the country so playing them well is important.  For Choi and Kim, they were 8 under in victory while Rory McIlroy was the best in 2011 playing them in 11 under.  In 2012 Tiger was 3 under on them while Haas was 2 under on them last year
  • Weather will play a factor.  The weather has been dry the last week in the D.C. area so the course will be firm and fast.  It will be steamy this week with high humidity and temperatures in the mid-80s.   Also like it is this time of year there could be pop-up thunderstorms in the afternoon.

 

Who to watch for at the Quick Loan National

Best Bets:

Jason Day

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T21 T8 T9 CUT CUT

Has played great this year despite problems with his thumb. This is the type of course he will do very well on and winning this week would not surprise me.

Justin Rose

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T15 Win T16 T30

Good old fashion course, has won this event at Aronimink, another classic gem so I can see him playing well.

Brandt Snedeker

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T8 T16 T5 CUT T8

Think he is on the mend and I see him winning very soon. Was T-9th at Pinehurst and T-11th last week he has played well at Congressional and you should take him seriously.

Best of the rest:

Jordan Spieth

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
6 CUT

Was 6th in this event last year, this was the time that we started realizing how good he really is. Have to think he will contend this week.

Carl Pettersson

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T34 6

Has snuck up a lot of leader boards of late so we should watch him. Remember he has the knack of winning in Ryder Cup years (wins in 2006, ’08, ’10 & ’12) to remind folks that he was born in Sweden and should be considered for the team. Another thing to look at has won at Memorial and was 6th in this event in 2010.

K.J. Choi

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT CUT 2 CUT T49 Win

Was T-2nd last week, have to put him on our list since he has won at Congressional.

Webb Simpson

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T8 T41 T35

Put him on your list, was T-3rd at St. Jude and plays well on courses like Congressional.

Solid contenders

Brendon Todd

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T13 72

Can’t forget about him, has had a great run the last seven weeks.

Jason Dufner

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT 70 T48

Have to think about him just because Oak Hill is a lot like Congressional.

Robert Garrigus

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T64 T4 T20 67 T25 T27 T30

Don’t forget about him, finished T4th here in 2012 and hasn’t played that bad in 2014.

Hunter Mahan

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT T8 T30 2 T12 T8

Could be a good choice due to his good finishes at Congressional but his game hasn’t been sharp since finishing T-9th at the Cadillac over three months ago.

Long shots that could come through:

Stewart CInk

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
5 T22

Remember him? Guy that won the 2009 British Open, he played well here last year and has the game to play well at Congressional.

Billy Horschel

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T61 CUT CUT

This is a home event for him, was T-6th at the FedEx St. Jude so you never know.

Morgan Hoffmann

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T8

Remember him, he was T8th last year so don’t forget about him.

D.H. Lee

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T3

Now for those looking at him based on his T-3rd last year forget about him. 2014 has been terrible, only made four cuts in 14 events and is a lost cause for this year.

So what about Tiger???

Tiger Woods

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
Win T46 Win T6

Don’t know the shape of his game, we heard rumors at the U.S. Open that he was playing again, but nobody has come forward to say the shape of Woods game is. Can’t see him winning, have to think that a top-ten would be a great accomplishment for him. It’s all about getting ready for the British, which we think he will play in and possibly making a run at the PGA Championship.

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