BlogJohn Deere Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Of course each week is important, but for 22 of the 156 playing in the John Deere (including Steve Stricker who may not go), this will be there final prep before the British Open.  One of the reasons this is possible is because the folks that run the John Deere will have a waiting 767 on Sunday evening that will whisk the players directly to Manchester, England about 40 miles from Hoylake.  This has been an on going “perk” for the last half a dozen years.  Matter of fact it’s so popular that the Canadian Open, played the week after the British has a plane that will whisk players from England to Toronto, Canada on Sunday night after the completion of plane.

One thing that never makes sense is the attitude of players like Steve Stricker.  Right now he is debating weather to go or not, leaning more on not going.  Yes I know that he is “semi-retired” but how can you say that it’s better playing the John Deere over the Open Championship?  Or is this just my mentality or jealously that he has that chose.  I can bet that Ryder Cup coach Tom Watson has made his mind up on giving Stricker a wild card berth into the matches later in September in Scotland.

Guess when you make over $40 million playing on the PGA Tour you can make decisions like this but it still is very foreign in my mind.  Of the field this week there are about 100 players that would love to win the John Deere and get passage on that plane Sunday evening and that is the point the money is so damn good on the PGA Tour that decisions like bypassing the British Open is very easy to make.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the John Deere Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

Hitting lots of greens.  Since the course was first used in 2000, the winners have finished T-5th (Michael Clark II), 4th (David Goosett), 1st (J.P. Hayes), T-5th (Vijay Singh), T-23rd (Mark Hensby), T-2nd (Sean O’Hair) and T-2nd (John Senden) in greens hit showing that if you hit a lot of greens, you will do well.  Yes Jonathan Byrd finished T-25th in 2007 and Kenny Perry finished T-22nd in 2008, Steve Stricker was T-14th in 2009, T-11th in 2010, T-33rd in 2011, Zach Johnson was T26th in 2012 while Jordan Spieth was T34th last year.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Even though the fairways aren’t that demanding, for J.P. Hayes (2002),Mark Hensby (2004) and Sean O’Hair (2005) this has proven to help in there victories.  For the rest of the champions since 1997 they all are between 15th and 49th.  In 2010 Stricker was T-18th, hitting 41 of the 56 fairways, while in 2011 he was T-58th hitting just 36 of 56 fairways while Zach Johnson was T-31st with 41 of 56.  Last year Spieth was T-19th in greens hit with 43 of 56.
• Being in the lead after the third round doesn’t guarantee a victory, especially at the John Deere.  Since 1995 only seven players won, David Toms in 1997, David Gossett in 2001, J.P. Hayes in 2002,  John Senden in 2006 , Kenny Perry in 2009, Steve Stricker in 2010 and 2011.  In 2012 Zach Johnson was T-3rd going into the final round, while Jordan Spieth was T9th, six back of third round leader Daniel Summerhays.
• The myth of the John Deere was always think an underdog or new player that has never won before will win the Deere.  In looking at the winners since the event moved to the TPC course in 2000 between then and 2007 only one true favorite Vijay Singh in 2003 was victorious.  But since the British Open charter went into effect you have marquee names like Kenny Perry in 2008, Steve Stricker in 2009, ’10 & ’11 along with Zach Johnson and Jordan Spieth winning.  So you can see how perks like a special charter can really change the outlook of a tournament.
• The tournament has the overall reputation of first time winners.  Since 1973, 19 rookie winners including seven of the last 15 (J.L. Lewis in 1999, Michael Clark in 2000, David Gossett in 2001, Mark Hensby in 2004, Sean O’Hair, John Senden in 2006 and Jordan Spieth in 2013) have won the John Deere so even though the event has had proven champions win the last six years you never know.
• One last important element in winning this week will be making lot’s of birdies.  The TPC Deere Run gave up 1,676 birdies in 2007, 1,714 in 2008 and in 2009 along with 1,810 in 2010, 1,915 in 2011 (most of any course that year), 1,894 in 2012 (again the most on the PGA Tour in 2012) and 1,930 in 2013.  So look for those that have a high birdie average for the year.
• Weather will play a factor.  The weather has been wet over the course of the last month in the Silvis area so the course will be soft and play longer.  It won’t be terribly bad like it could be this time of year with high humidity and high temperatures so look for it to be anywhere between 77 and 86 during the week.  Also like it is this time of year there could be pop-up thunderstorms in the afternoon.