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BlogJohn Deere Classic Preview and Picks

John Deere Classic

July 10 – 13, 2014

TPC at Deere Run

Silvis,, Ill.

Par: 71 / Yardage:

Purse: $4.7 million

with $845,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jordan Spieth

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 8 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with just one player from the top-ten, #10 Jordan Spieth. The other top 50 players are #16 Zach Johnson, #19 Steve Stricker, #38 Kevin Streelman, #39 Kevin Na, #40 Ryan Moore, #45 Chris Kirk and #47 Harr Last year this event had 6 top-50 players, so a pick up of two players from last year.

The field includes 8 of the top 25 on the FedEx point standings for 2014.  Those players are #5 Jordan Spieth, #7 Chris Kirk, #10 Harris English, #12 Kevin Na, #7 Zach Johnson, #18 Ryan Moore, #22 John Senden and #24 Charles Howell III.

The field includes 7 players in the top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list. Those players are #6 Jordan Spieth, #12 Chris Kirk, #13 Harris English, #16 Kevin Na, #17 Ryan Moore, #21 Zach Johnson and #24 John Senden.

The field includes 8 players that have won 8 events on the PGA Tour this year: Ryan Moore (CIMB CLassic), Chris Kirk (McGladrey Classic), Harris English (OHL Classic at Mayakoba); Zach Johnson (Hyundai T of C); Russell Henley (Honda);  John Senden (Valspar Championship); Ben Crane (FedEx St. Jude) and Kevin Streelman (Travelers).

The field includes 8 past champions: Jordan Spieth (2013), Zach Johnson (2012), Steve Stricker (2011, ’10 & 09), Jonathan Byrd (2007), John Senden (2006), Sean O’Hair (2005), David Gossett (2001) and David Toms (1997.

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the John Deere Classic field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the John Deere Classic field in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the John Deere Classic field.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the John Deere Classic

Player The Greenbrier French Open Quicken Loans National BMW Intern. Travelers Championship Irish Open U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Lyoness Open Memorial Nordea Masters Colonial BMW PGA
Billy Hurley III
(148 pts)
T4
(80)
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T48
(2.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T37
(8.67)
DNP
 
T30
(6.67)
DNP
 
Chris Stroud
(124 pts)
T4
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T18
(32)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T69
(0)
DNP
 
T14
(12)
DNP
 
Cameron Tringale
(120.67 pts)
T4
(80)
DNP
 
T30
(20)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T32
(12)
DNP
 
T37
(8.67)
DNP
 
T63
(0)
DNP
 
Jordan Spieth
(115.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T11
(39)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T17
(44)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T19
(20.67)
DNP
 
T14
(12)
DNP
 
Bud Cauley
(115.33 pts)
T4
(80)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T11
(39)
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(9.67)
DNP
 
Ben Martin
(115 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T3
(90)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T13
(24.67)
DNP
 
T49
(0.67)
DNP
 
T21
(9.67)
DNP
 
Kevin Na
(114 pts)
T52
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T12
(50.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
2
(66.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Brendon De Jonge
(108.67 pts)
T64
(0)
DNP
 
T8
(50)
DNP
 
T42
(8)
DNP
 
T28
(29.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T28
(14.67)
DNP
 
T30
(6.67)
DNP
 
Kevin Streelman
(105.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(132)
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Shawn Stefani
(105 pts)
T35
(15)
DNP
 
2
(100)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T63
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Chris Kirk
(99.67 pts)
T45
(5)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T28
(29.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T4
(53.33)
DNP
 
T14
(12)
DNP
 
Steve Stricker
(93.67 pts)
T35
(15)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T21
(38.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T6
(40)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Ryan Moore
(93.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T5
(70)
DNP
 
T48
(2.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T19
(20.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Will Wilcox
(90.67 pts)
T4
(80)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T19
(20.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Troy Merritt
(90.67 pts)
T16
(34)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T67
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
2
(66.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Ben Crane
(88 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
74
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Win
(88)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Scott Langley
(71 pts)
T26
(24)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T11
(39)
DNP
 
T54
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T28
(14.67)
DNP
 
T68
(0)
DNP
 
Tim Wilkinson
(70 pts)
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T24
(26)
DNP
 
T18
(32)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T32
(12)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T51
(0)
DNP
 
Andrew Svoboda
(61.33 pts)
T64
(0)
DNP
 
T46
(4)
DNP
 
T71
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T6
(40)
DNP
 
T19
(20.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Andres Romero
(58.33 pts)
T45
(5)
DNP
 
T5
(70)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Harris English
(57.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(55)
DNP
 
T48
(2.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T30
(6.67)
DNP
 
Chad Campbell
(54.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T7
(55)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T46
(2.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T30
(6.67)
DNP
 
Steve Marino
(53.67 pts)
T11
(39)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T51
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T28
(14.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Robert Garrigus
(50.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T11
(39)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-3.33)
DNP
 
T28
(14.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Tyrone Van Aswegen
(46.33 pts)
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T21
(29)
DNP
 
T26
(24)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the John Deere Classic

Player The Greenbrier French Open Quicken Loans National BMW Intern. Travelers Championship Irish Open U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Lyoness Open Memorial Nordea Masters Colonial BMW PGA
Mark Wilson
(-43.33 pts)
T86
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T72
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Chad Collins
(-43.33 pts)
T68
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Bryce Molder
(-35 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
T45
(1.67)
DNP
 
Will MacKenzie
(-33.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Brian Stuard
(-33.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
D.A. Points
(-33.33 pts)
T86
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-13.33)
WD
(-3.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Derek Ernst
(-30 pts)
T82
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Alex Prugh
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jonathan Byrd
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T51
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T70
(0)
DNP
 
Alex Aragon
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Of course each week is important, but for 22 of the 156 playing in the John Deere (including Steve Stricker who may not go), this will be there final prep before the British Open.  One of the reasons this is possible is because the folks that run the John Deere will have a waiting 767 on Sunday evening that will whisk the players directly to Manchester, England about 40 miles from Hoylake.  This has been an on going “perk” for the last half a dozen years.  Matter of fact it’s so popular that the Canadian Open, played the week after the British has a plane that will whisk players from England to Toronto, Canada on Sunday night after the completion of plane.

One thing that never makes sense is the attitude of players like Steve Stricker.  Right now he is debating weather to go or not, leaning more on not going.  Yes I know that he is “semi-retired” but how can you say that it’s better playing the John Deere over the Open Championship?  Or is this just my mentality or jealously that he has that chose.  I can bet that Ryder Cup coach Tom Watson has made his mind up on giving Stricker a wild card berth into the matches later in September in Scotland.

Guess when you make over $40 million playing on the PGA Tour you can make decisions like this but it still is very foreign in my mind.  Of the field this week there are about 100 players that would love to win the John Deere and get passage on that plane Sunday evening and that is the point the money is so damn good on the PGA Tour that decisions like bypassing the British Open is very easy to make.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the John Deere Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

Hitting lots of greens.  Since the course was first used in 2000, the winners have finished T-5th (Michael Clark II), 4th (David Goosett), 1st (J.P. Hayes), T-5th (Vijay Singh), T-23rd (Mark Hensby), T-2nd (Sean O’Hair) and T-2nd (John Senden) in greens hit showing that if you hit a lot of greens, you will do well.  Yes Jonathan Byrd finished T-25th in 2007 and Kenny Perry finished T-22nd in 2008, Steve Stricker was T-14th in 2009, T-11th in 2010, T-33rd in 2011, Zach Johnson was T26th in 2012 while Jordan Spieth was T34th last year.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Even though the fairways aren’t that demanding, for J.P. Hayes (2002),Mark Hensby (2004) and Sean O’Hair (2005) this has proven to help in there victories.  For the rest of the champions since 1997 they all are between 15th and 49th.  In 2010 Stricker was T-18th, hitting 41 of the 56 fairways, while in 2011 he was T-58th hitting just 36 of 56 fairways while Zach Johnson was T-31st with 41 of 56.  Last year Spieth was T-19th in greens hit with 43 of 56.
  • Being in the lead after the third round doesn’t guarantee a victory, especially at the John Deere.  Since 1995 only seven players won, David Toms in 1997, David Gossett in 2001, J.P. Hayes in 2002,  John Senden in 2006 , Kenny Perry in 2009, Steve Stricker in 2010 and 2011.  In 2012 Zach Johnson was T-3rd going into the final round, while Jordan Spieth was T9th, six back of third round leader Daniel Summerhays.
  • The myth of the John Deere was always think an underdog or new player that has never won before will win the Deere.  In looking at the winners since the event moved to the TPC course in 2000 between then and 2007 only one true favorite Vijay Singh in 2003 was victorious.  But since the British Open charter went into effect you have marquee names like Kenny Perry in 2008, Steve Stricker in 2009, ’10 & ’11 along with Zach Johnson and Jordan Spieth winning.  So you can see how perks like a special charter can really change the outlook of a tournament.
  • The tournament has the overall reputation of first time winners.  Since 1973, 19 rookie winners including seven of the last 15 (J.L. Lewis in 1999, Michael Clark in 2000, David Gossett in 2001, Mark Hensby in 2004, Sean O’Hair, John Senden in 2006 and Jordan Spieth in 2013) have won the John Deere so even though the event has had proven champions win the last six years you never know.
  • One last important element in winning this week will be making lot’s of birdies.  The TPC Deere Run gave up 1,676 birdies in 2007, 1,714 in 2008 and in 2009 along with 1,810 in 2010, 1,915 in 2011 (most of any course that year), 1,894 in 2012 (again the most on the PGA Tour in 2012) and 1,930 in 2013.  So look for those that have a high birdie average for the year.
  • Weather will play a factor.  The weather has been wet over the course of the last month in the Silvis area so the course will be soft and play longer.  It won’t be terribly bad like it could be this time of year with high humidity and high temperatures so look for it to be anywhere between 77 and 86 during the week.  Also like it is this time of year there could be pop-up thunderstorms in the afternoon.

 

 

Who to watch for at the John Deere Classic

Best Bets:

Zach Johnson

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T2 Win T3 T21 T2 T69 CUT T33 T36 T20 CUT CUT

Has a way of playing well each year at the John Deere, don’t see it stopping this week.

Steve Stricker

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T10 T5 Win Win Win T51 T46 T4 CUT

Same with Steve, this is his personal major and he loves playing here. Look for another high finish.

Ryan Moore

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T22 T8 T34 T74 T27

We go with him again hopping that he can get everything in top-shape.

Best of the rest:

Jordan Spieth

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
Win T58

hasn’t played well of late, maybe this week will get him going again.

Kevin Na

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT T32 WD T67

Hard to believe he isn’t in the British Open, a win could change that.

Chris Stroud

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T68 T71 T15 T62 T22

Could this be the time for Chris? Been playing well, this course suits his game so don’t be surprised if he is on top on Sunday.

Kevin Streelman

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T44 T8 CUT 8

Watch him because he could be the surprise pick of the week, is playing well and done well at Deere Run.

Solid contenders

John Senden

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT 4 T12 T66 CUT CUT Win T29 T39 CUT T15

Past winner who knows how to play the course.

Brendon De Jonge

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T54 T19 T7 T7 CUT T62

A win here is possible, we know he can win could be this week.

Chris Kirk

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T22 T30 T22

This is a good place for him, has played well could be a big surprise.

Luke Guthrie

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT T5

Was T-5th here in 2012.

Long shots that could come through:

Troy Matteson

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T27 2 T71 T10 CUT CUT T3 CUT

Was runner-up in 2012.

Jerry Kelly

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T4 T36 CUT T23 T18 T8

A short trip from his home in Wisconsin, he has played well at Deere Run.

Martin Flores

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T4 T58 CUT

Reason he is playing here instead of at home in Scotland, he plays better and knows he can win this week.

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