BlogWho will win at Hoylake on Sunday?

Things you need to know before Sunday’s final round:

So how good was the third round?

Have to say one thing to start it off.  Both the R&A and the USGA dodged major weather bullets during their championships.  Several times at Pinehurst some bad storms skirted the area, only to pass to the north or south by 20 to 50 miles.  On Friday evening, the R&A got one of those armageddon forecasts in which lightning would cause havoc in the afternoon.  So the R&A decided to move the tee times up, pair them into threes inside of twos and for the first time in 143 British Open’s, play off of both tees.  Now there were many snide remarks in the media room on how the weatherman got it wrong but it doesn’t matter as the third round is in the books.  Oh, that storm hit about a half hour after the final group finished, I have to think that the third round wouldn’t have finished if the times weren’t change.  The good news, the forecast is for a great day on Sunday.

In looking at the first three days, the big news has to be the play of Rory McIlroy.  He has always been a Jekyll and Hyde and you just don’t know what he is going to do.  As good of a talent McIlroy is, he hasn’t shown the same power of winning as Tiger Woods had in his mid-20s.  But for many he is pretty good and does have two majors under his belt.  When Rory shot 66 on Thursday, many in the media pointed out his Jekyll and Hyde fall in which his scoring average was 68.15 in 14 worldwide events in 2014 but 72.23 in the second round.  Hard to believe a four-hole swing from one round to another, but there was.  So when Rory shot 66 in the second round, many started to take him seriously.  Then what did Rory do to start out on Saturday?  Make a bogey at one and scramble over the next hole in which he needed a 8 footer to save par got him going.  He picked up his third birdie of the week on the par 5, fifth hole.  What could have been the most important hole of the day was the seventh, as a poor drive put him in deep rough.  He had to chop back into the fairway and pitched to 18 feet away.  He drained that putt and was able to keep things together, even though Rickie Fowler tied him momentarily with a birdie at 12.  McIlroy made only his third bogey of the week at 12, but when McIlroy hit the 14th tee, he was a shot ahead of Fowler.  But things would change over the course of the next hour.  While McIlroy played those holes in par, par and then an eagle at 16, Fowler made bogey at 14, 16 and 17 to fall back to 9 under par.  Garcia got it up to 10 under, but a bogey at 17 brought him back to 9 under.  So by the time McIlroy stepped to the 17th tee, he had a six-shot lead and could of just about put the whole tournament out of reach.  But he bogey 17 after a poor third shot but made up on that with another eagle at 18.  With his play on the final holes, he may of won the Open Championship.  He is at 16 under and leads Rickie Fowler by six and Sergio Garcia and Dustin Johnson by seven.  So it could be game point since nobody outside of Greg Norman has ever blown that kind of lead in a major.

What has made Rory so good?

A combination of making only 4 bogeys but his key is on the par 5s.  Just look at the chart below, and you can see why he has blown everyone away that is close to him:

• Player                          Score          Score on Par 5s
• Rory McIlroy                 -16                      -11
• Rickie Fowler                -10                       -7
• Sergio Garcia                 -9                        -5
• Dustin Johnson              -9                        -4
• Victor Dubuisson            -8                       -8

These are great numbers and just remember 2006, Tiger was 14 under on the par 5, the best in the British Open since stats were maintained in 1997.  So Rory could catch Tiger’s mark tomorrow, but the point is he has overpowered Hoylake’s long holes.

So can anyone catch him?

If you look at history as you will see below, no.  Since the Open went to 72 holes in 1892, eight times players have had six shot and better leads and every one of them have been won by the third-round leader.

• 1900 – Harry Vardon led after three by 6, won by 8.
• 1903 – Harry Vardon led after three by 7, won by 6.
• 1908 – James Braid led after three by 6, won by 8.
• 1934 – Henry Cotton led after three by 10, won by 5.
• 1951 – Max Faulkner led after three by 6, won by 2.
• 1964 – Tony Lema led after three by 7, won by 5.
• 1996 – Tom Lehman led after three by 6, won by 2.
• 2000 – Tiger Woods led after three by 6, won by 8.

But as we know from what happen to Greg Norman in the 1996 Masters, anything is possible.  One thing for Rory, he had been in this position before, at the 2011 U.S. Open he had a 9 shot lead shot 69 and won by 8.  At the 2012 PGA Championship he had a three-shot lead going into the final round, shot 66 and won by 8.

Now on the other end of things, Rory did have a four-shot lead going into the final round of the 2011 Masters and shot 80, finishing T-15th.

In a way, McIlroy is not as meticulous as Martin Kaymer, who you would trust your life with a six-shot lead.  McIlroy has a bit of Greg Norman and Arnold Palmer in him, and he will have to prove me wrong by winning this on Sunday.  If I were to gauge things, I would give Rory a 5 in 6 chance of winning, he will do the deed on Sunday.

If McIlroy falters, who could win?

If disaster hits Rory, the combination of Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia and Dustin Johnson will probably be around to pick up the pieces.  Gosh, Sergio Garcia is playing his 64th major without a victory, he has been close many times wouldn’t it be weird to see him win this?  Rickie Fowler is such an explosive player, if we have great weather on Sunday he could shoot 64 and possibly sneak in there.  The same with Dustin Johnson, he is explosive and can shoot 64.  Other than these three, nobody else has a chance.

So what does Fowler have to favor him on Sunday?

He has made 18 birdies, more than anyone else.  He is also T-7th hitting 40 of 54 greens.  What favors him is his age, he doesn’t fear a big deficit and knows he is just a 64 away from a possible victory.  Fowler has to take advantage of Rory’s slow starts and has to come out making birdies early.

So what does Garcia have to favor him on Sunday?

The golfing Gods owes him one big time.  I think Garcia will be tough know he has to make up a seven-shot lead; he will come out playing for the pin.  I have always thought Sergio will win a major, but I think he will have to back into one.  So Sunday could present that for him.

So what does Johnson have to favor him on Sunday?

He can overpower a golf course.  Johnson showed us on Friday by shooting 65 that he has the game to go low at Hoylake.  Just like McIlroy, Johnson has made four bogeys all week, three of them came in consecutive holes on 7, 8 and 9 on Saturday.  Without those bogeys, Johnson would be close.  It also hasn’t helped him playing the par 5s in just four under.

What about Tiger?

He hasn’t shown us much.  I just wonder why he didn’t use the same plan he did in 2006 in limiting his driver.  Over the first 54 holes he has used his driver nine times and is 10 over on those holes.  Do I need to say anything else?

Tiger has made two doubles and two triples.  He just isn’t the same player he was before, and I am not talking about his game, I just don’t think he is thinking the same way.  The Tiger of old would make two doubles and two triples in his hey-day.

So is there an “Arnold Palmer 65” out there for Sunday?

That round in 1960 at Cherry Hills is the most iconic round in U.S. Open history and one of the best in championship golf.  Can someone do that tomorrow?  Yes.  Lot’s of rain will make a very wet and slow course.  But when we say can anyone shot 65 it could be Rory that does it, he is playing that well.  This isn’t the lock of the year like Kaymer’s victory was, but I think Rory is a lot wiser and smarter than he was at the 2011 Masters and will win.

Below is a list of the top-18 players on the leader board going to five under which is 11 shots back of Rory McIlroy: