BlogWGC-Bridgestone Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

It’s been a bizarre season.  If you look at the important events like the majors, WGC events, Players and BMW PGA Championship all of them have been won by house-hold names, with the small exception of the WGC-Cadillac.  That was won by Patrick Reed, who may think he is one of the top-five players on the globe, but he still hasn’t proven to many of us that is the case.

If you look at the majors, all three have been won by previous major winners.  You have to go back to 2000 to find four majors that weren’t won by a “major-rookie.”  If you look further back, the last time that happened was in 1980 so you can see how rare it is not to have a major winner.  In looking at the other big events, Dustin Johnson won the WGC-HSBC; Jason Day won the Match Play; Martin Kaymer won the Players and Rory McIlroy won the BMW PGA Championship.  So most of the big events in 2014 have been won by seasoned players.

On the other end of the spectrum, as for pure PGA Tour events in 2014 its the story of the face-less winners, guys that are not know as past winners.  Now Webb Simpson, Zach Johnson, Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar and  Tim Clark have won in 2014 but the rest has not been stellar.  Of course Jimmy Walker won three times, Patrick Reed twice and the same with Martin Kaymer.   But the rest of the winners, guys like Chris Kirk, Kevin Stadler, Chesson Hadley, John Senden, Steven Bowditch, Seung-Yul Noh, Brendon Todd and Brian Harman aren’t strong candidates for entry into the Hall-of-Fame.  It was a mixed bag of winners in 2014.

So what has happened to our stars?  First of all, 2014 will be the first time that we have never seen either Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson in the winner circle for a year since Tiger turned pro in 1996.  An even sadder stat, between Woods and Mickelson they have 19 starts on the PGA Tour in 2014 and none of them have been in the top-ten.  Hard to believe.

Last week in Canada it looked like Jim Furyk was about to get off the “snide” and win for the first time since 2010.  He has been in position over a half dozen times to win but had a terrible final round.  On Sunday he had a three-shot lead, shot 69 but lost when Tim Clark shot 65, including a 30 on the back nine.  So for Furyk the frustration continues but he should have a good chance at Firestone, coming close to winning the WGC-Bridgestone on several occasions in past years.

Frankly this will be a very important week for Tiger Woods.  He comes to a course that he has dominated, winning over $11 million on it.  In 14 starts at the Bridgestone, he has won eight of them and been in the top-ten 12 times.  But in 2010 he finished T-78th at the Bridgestone and in 2011 was T-37th, so we can see that he has not totally dominated this tournament.  There are a lot of cat-calls for him not getting a captains pick for the Ryder Cup team, saying Tiger hasn’t played well in the last year.  He is 215 in the FedEx Cup standings, and if he doesn’t have a pair of top-tens this week and next at the PGA Championship there is a good chance that he won’t make the playoffs.  Without entry into the playoffs, I can’t see any reason for Tom Watson to give one of his picks to Tiger.  So it will be interesting to see, can Tiger play well again this week?  Many don’t think he has the game anymore along with the will power.  Now we can’t believe in what Tiger tells us so we will have to see it in his game.

I can’t see him turning it around, I think a win is as physical impossible and find it absurd that the betting interests list him as a 16 to 1 shot at victory.  Gosh, I think that Daisuke Maruyama, who is a 1,000 to 1 longshot, has about as much chance at winning as Tiger has.  Realistically that 16 to 1 figure should be for a top-ten finish.  So the bottom line if he can’t play well at either Firestone or Valhalla, courses he has won on in past years he just doesn’t belong on the Ryder Cup team.

Lastly my heart is broken for all of those who lost their jobs when Golf World closed last week.  All in the industry feel the pain of shutting a magazine that has been an iconic institution since 1947.  Things are different in the print industry; these weekly magazines have been relics for the last dozen or so years.  The writing has been on the wall since the advent of the internet that people want their news in a fast, daily way.  It doesn’t matter how good Golf World was or how good GolfWeek or Sports Illustrator Golf Plus is, it’s old news when it arrives in someone’s mailbox the next week.  I could  never understand why they couldn’t figure a way to do a daily publication in a timely manner, something that would be subscription based as part of an application.  It would save the 50 to 60% printing and mailing cost, plus it would arrive instantaneously.   All of the golf publications never grasped what the internet was about and how to get people to pay for their product.  The powers to be felt that they could give things away for free, advertising would pay fthe freight, but it never worked out.  Instead of helping their publications, they drove the industry to offer news free of charge and hurt their main publication.  I centrality don’t have the answers and after trying to give folks timely news for six years on GolfObserver.Com, was forced to change gears so it’s a very complex problem.

It’s not only tough getting people to pay for a publication, but advertising is terrible right now.  All the weekly’s have suffered a 15 to 20% reduction in advertising, and I have to think that many of them have lost subscribers over the years.  The hard thing to fathom is that I personally don’t think the answer is through GolfChannel.Com, PGATour.Com or even Geoffshackelford.com.  All of these entities have a terrible bias toward their bottom-lines and aren’t forthcoming on reporting all of the news.  Not to say that GolfWorld, Sports Illustrator GolfWeek or even Golf Global Post are 100% true to not showing bias. Even institutes like the New York Times show bias, but they are as close to giving you truthful reporting before they are covering their bottom lines.  So with the golfing economy not getting better it would be a shame if the other magazines went down the path that GolfWorld is venturing.  This isn’t the proper place to debate all of this, but I feel the pain for the dozen or so folks that lost jobs in the shutting down of Golf World.

Tournament information:

The WGC-Bridgestone Invitational is the fourth of the World Golf Championships for 2014, and it will return to Firestone Country Club for the 14th time in the tournament’s 15-year existents.  The first couple of years of this event it was a limited field affair open to members of previous Ryder Cup and President’s Cup team members, but it changed to reflect the way the WGC-CA Championship picks its players.

• The qualification has changed over the years. For a player to qualify, he must meet at least one of the required stipulations:
• have been a playing member in either the most recent President’s or Ryder Cup;
• be ranked in the Top 50 in the official World Golf Rankings one or two weeks prior to the event;
• or win a worldwide event with an Official World Golf Ranking field strength of 100 points or more in the last calendar year.
• Lastly the winner of the following tournaments from each of the following Tours:
• Japan Golf Tour Championship (2014) and Bridgestone Open (2013) from the Japan Golf Tour;
• Australian PGA Championship (2013) from the Australasian Tour; Dimension Data Pro-Am (2014) from the Southern Africa Tour;
• and Thailand Golf Championship (2013) from the Asian Tour.
• With this, the field has bloated and this year 76 players will be in the field (includes Dustin Johnson WD).

Before the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational began, the course was the site of the World Series of Golf.  From 1962 through 1975 it was a four-man showdown of the four major winners.   The format changed in 1976 when it became a special invitational which invited around 50 professionals.  In the history of that event only two players had won it twice, Greg Norman in 1995 & ’97 and Jose Maria Olazabal in 1990 & 1994.  Olazabal wins were unique, the first one in 1990 set a lot of records that nobody had been able to touch.  The win in 1994 was a bit different because it was held on the North course, the only time in the World Series that the tournament was played over there.  What happened a month before the tournament, all of the greens on the South course mysteriously died.  At most tournaments this would cause a big stir but not at Firestone, they just switched things across the street on the North Course, which was the venue for the American golf classics in the 70s.  To add a nice touch Olazabal added another World Series crown and thus can say that he is the only player to win on both of Firestone’s two golf courses.

In 1998, the World Series of Golf stopped, and the World Golf Championship started play at Firestone and had held the event every year except for 2002 when it was held at Sahalee Country Club just outside of Seattle, Washington.

Course information:

• Firestone Country Club (South Course)
• Akron, Ohio
• 7,400 yards     Par 35-35–70

Firestone C.C. has been a major part of golf for over 50 years.  Since 1960, the South Course had held a PGA Tour event with the except of two years, in 1994 when the greens died, and the tournament was moved across the street and in 2002 when the event was played in Seattle, Washington.  The South Course has gone through several changes in its 85-year history.  It was originally designed by Bert Way and opened in 1929.  30 years later in 1959 the course was completely remodeled by Robert Trent Jones, who made the course what it is today.  In 1986 Jack Nicklaus did some touch-up work.

The course has held more professional tournaments than any other course in America except for probably Augusta, Colonial and Pebble.  In 1954, it was the site of the Rubber City Open which was held for five years.  In 1960, the course was the venue of the PGA Championship and two years later held the World Series of Golf.  Since 1960, the South Course had held a PGA Tour event with the except of two years, in 1994 when the greens died, and the tournament was moved across the street and in 2002 when the event was played in Washington. It also has held three majors the 1960, ’66 & ’75 PGA Championship.  The club also held eight CBS Golf Classics and 14 American Golf Classics.  In the late 50s and early 60s it was also the site of the CBS Golf Classic, which was one of the first made for TV golf series.  So there is no two ways about it, Firestone is at the forefront of professional golf.

The South course features Pencross Bent Grass and Poa Annua on the tee boxes, fairways, and greens. The 3/8″ cut in the fairway provides good roll off the tee, while the skimpy 0.10″ cut on the greens makes for extremely quick putting surfaces. The 4″ cut of Kentucky Blue Grass and Perennial Rye Grass in the rough is plenty long enough to penalize golfers for errant tee shots.

Above all, the South Course at Firestone is noted for its length at 7,400 yards, the Par 70. It features a 76.1 course rating and 132 slope rating. Though the slope of the course isn’t too dramatic, the course still puts up a test simply because of its length. The Par 5 16th is a microcosm for the course. At 667-yards, it is one of the longest Par 5’s on Tour. A green-side pond captures errant second shots by golfers trying to reach in two as well as third shots from golfers who hit a poor tee shot. Four years ago it played a big part in Tiger Woods victory when he was tied with Padraig Harrington until the Irishman took 8 on the 16th hole.<P>

Other difficult holes include the 471-yard par 4, 4th hole which requires a long, straight tee shot followed by a high, soft approach shot to hold the elevated green.  Last year it was the second-toughest hole on the course and 57th toughest on the PGA Tour playing to an average of 4.267.  The hardest hole on the course and the 37th toughest on the PGA Tour in 2013 was the ninth, the 494 yard par 4 that played to an average of 4.308. The 667-yard Par 5, 16th was given the nickname of “The Monster,” which was made famous by Jack Nicklaus’s miraculous par at the 1975 PGA Championship en route to a come from behind victory.  It also has one of the best finishing holes in golf, the 464-yard Par 4 18th that is very narrow and is protected by bunkers to the front of the green.  Last year it was the fourth-toughest hole of the week and 138th on the PGA Tour playing to a 4.1485 average.<P>

Last year the course played to a 71.051 average, making it the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational:

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Firestone is one of the most respected courses on the PGA Tour.  The par-70 layout plays to over 7,400 yards and if there is a key to the course its the long par 3s and par 4s.  Three of the par 3s play over 200 yards while eleven of the twelve par 4s play over 400 yards and  eight play over 440 yards.  You have to be accurate with your drives, as the fairways are very well bunkered and bordered with high rough.  Shots into the greeens, usually with long irons, have to be precise and if the players do get a break its in the greens, they are pretty flat with very little undulations.  The list of champions is pretty impressive but underdogs have won the event.  Its also interesting to note that since 1995 all of the winners (except for Darren Clarke in 2003 and Vijay Singh 2008) have won a tournament five months prior to their Firestone victory.
• Since the course will play at more than 7,400 yards, the “experts” will say bombers hold an advantage. Still as you will see length is not the only strength you need to play well at Firestone.  Average hitters like Jim Furyk, David Toms and Stewart Cink have done well at Firestone, so does long hitters have an advantage, yes because Tiger seems to win a lot but don’t discount the shorter hitter.
• Accuracy will rule this week. The fairways are very narrow and the rough has always played a factor.    Of the 20 players that have finished in the top-five in the tournaments first three years (1999-2001), 15 of them have finished in the top-20 of the driving accuracy category.  Things changed drastically in 2007 as only five players out of the top 21 finished in the top-ten of the driving distance category.  In 2008 of the players in the top-19, only four were in the top-ten. The same in 2009 as of those in the top-15 the best rank in driving accuracy is T10th.  In 2010 only two players out of the top 22 finished in the top-ten of fairways hit.  Things got better in 2011 as six of the top-six were in the top-15 while in 2012 ten of the top-15 were in the top-20.  In 2013 nine of the top-12 were in the top-11.   So if fairways get dry this week, look for accuracy to again not be the King this week.
• The only problem is that the course will not be dry.  Lot’s of rain have dropped in the last month and rain is in the forecast for everyday between Tuesday practice rounds through Sunday.  In looking at the long range forecast Thursday and Sunday seems like the only days which a lack of rain.
• Now in the years that Woods has won, hitting greens was the key to victory, but in the two years that Darren Clarke and Stewart Cink won, putting was the key.  In 2009 greens hit was the key to victory for Tiger as he ranked T2nd in that stat, while in 2010 Hunter Mahan was T8th in greens hit and T4th in number of putts.  In 2011 Adam Scott was T9th in greens hit and T4th in putting while in 2012 Keegan Bradley was T11th in greens hit and T2nd in putting  So which one is the favorite?  I have to say that the ball striker will always win.
•  Does a non-marquee guy have a chance this week?  Could Thongchai Jaidee, Yoshitaka Takeya or even Jonas Bilxt win?  Not a chance, look for either one of the usual suspects or someone like a Jason Dufner, Keegan Bradley or Jim Furyk who really wants to do well in a big event.  As for an underdog, no chance as underdogs have not fared well at Firestone.