BlogWho Will Win at Valhalla on Sunday?

Things you need to know before Sunday’s final round

Was there a lot of moving on moving day?

When you have a scoring average of 69.56 with 27 players shooting in the 60s, yes lot’s of folks took advantage of a great day of golf.  With all of the rain over 28 hours, then hot conditions in which the ball traveled further help make for a great scoring day.  Nine players shot 65 and 66 and of those in the top-41 of the leaderboard Jim Furyk was the only player to shoot over par.  You aren’t going to get any better conditions than today, and it’s looking like tomorrow could be some of the same.

Anything shocking about the third round?

The fact that there are so many marquee names in the half of the leaderboard.  Seven of the top-10 of the world rankings are either leading or within nine of McIlroy on Saturday evening.  Not bad considered that Matt Kuchar had to withdraw, Bubba Watson is just about in last place, and Tiger missed the cut. If there was anything shocking about Saturday, it was the great play of so many people.

So what about Rory’s play?

Hard to believe that he shot 67 and only had a one shot lead.  He is playing as well as he played at the British Open when he went to the final round six shots up.  McIlroy is also playing as well as Martin Kaymer was when he went into the final round at Pinehurst with a five shot lead.  McIlroy’s 200 total is not a 54 hole record (196, David Toms in 2001), but it’s pretty good and I find it hard to believe that he has eight players within four shots of him.

Why is Rory playing so well?

He is in the zone a lot like Tiger was in his prime.  Rory talked after the third round about how his game wasn’t the best, but he has been scrambling and putting well.  On Saturday, he had only 12 putts on the back nine, something like what Tiger did in his prime.  It was always hard to determine stat wise how well Tiger was playing, other than he made just about every putt inside ten feet.  This week Rory has made 44 of 49 putts inside ten feet and between 4 and 8 feet 11 of 12.  These are the kind of numbers that will win him this championship.

So realistically what are the chances of him winning?

I would say 50-50.  He knows that he shot 67 to just keep the lead, with so many close and good weather on Sunday he may have to shoot another 67.  Rory says that he feels fresh and eager to play, and that in itself is a sign that he will play good.  But he knows that it could be a dog fight, with all of the players around him.

So who does Rory have to fear the most?

Probably Rickie Fowler.  He shot 66 on Friday and 67 on Saturday   Fowler has been bogey free his last 27 holes and played them in seven under and has dominated the par 5s, playing them in seven under.  Fowler has finished T5th, T2nd and T2nd in his three majors this year and has been 34 under in his last 270 holes at the U.S. Open, British Open, Bridgestone and PGA.  Fowler has also shot rounds of par or better for his last 20 rounds going back to the first round 75 at the Wells Fargo.  Rickie is not going to play poorly on Sunday, and he could easily shot 67 or lower.

I also think that Phil Mickelson could pull what he did at the British Open last year.  He was four back there, he is three back of Rory going into the final round.  The only problem, Phil could shoot 65 and still lose, it could be that type of day.

What about Bernd Wiesberger?

He is a lot like Jim Furyk, scrappy player who makes a lot of checks but frankly he has no experience in the rarify air that he will experience on Sunday.  This is only his six major and only the second time he has made the cut.  I think that Sunday will be like running the bulls in Spain, but he will get trampled very early and become a spectator.

Anybody else that could make a run?

Sorry, but even if a Henrik Stenson or a Louis Oosthuizen shots a 64, it’s probably not going to be enough.  Could someone shot 63 or 62, hard to say the course is for the taking, but we haven’t seen something like that happen since Johnny Miller did it 42 years ago in the U.S. Open.  With the course playing easy and with a confident front runner like Rory, it’s just too hard to not only keep pace but to out power him.

Below is a list of the top-22 players on the leader board going to six under which is 7 shots back of Rory McIlroy