Welcome to GOLFstats.com! You are currently viewing a special post on GOLFstats.com .
For the best experience and full access to GOLFstats.com, CLICK HERE to sign up for a $15 one month GOLFstats Ultimate account!

BlogItalian Open Preview and Picks

Open D’Italia Lindt

August 28 – 31, 2014

Circolo Golf Torino (La Mandria Course)

Turin, Italy

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,208

Purse: $1.92 million

with $319,537 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Julien Quesne

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 10 of the top 100 in the latest Official World Rankings, with the highest ranked player in the field being #27 Jamie Donaldson.  Here are the other top-100 players in the field: #34 Stephen Gallacher,  #44 Francesco Molinari, #50 Joost Luiten, #70 Bernd Wiesberger, #72 Matteo Manassero, #75 George Coetzee, #78 Rafael Cabrera Bello, #93 Tommy Fleetwood and #96 Chris Wood.

The field includes 22 of the Top 50 on this year’s Race to Dubai money list.  Those players include #4 Jamie Donaldson, #9 Stephen Gallacher, #17 Joost Luiten, #28 Marc Warren, #22 Francesco Molinari, #24 Kristoffer Broberg, #25 Alexander Levy, #26 George Coetzee, #29 Rafa Cabrera-Bello, #30 Edoardo Molinari, #32 Robert Karlsson, #33 Tommy Fleetwood, #35 Simon Dyson, #36 Bernd Wiesberger, #38 Thomas Aiken, #39 Matteo Manassero, #41 Ross Fisher, #44 Andy Sullivan, #45 Romain Wattel, #47 Marcel Siem, #49 Oliver Fisher and #50 Tyrrell Hatton.

The field includes 9 past champions: Julien Quesne (2013), Robert Rock (2011), Fredrik Andersson Hed (2010), Daniel Vancsik (2009), Hennie Otto (2008), Francesco Molinari (2006), Steve Webster (2005), Mathias Gronberg (2003) and Patrik Sjoland (1998).

The field includes 11 players that have won on the European Tour this year: Stephen Gallacher (Dubai Desert Classic), George Coetzee (Joburg Open), Thomas Aiken (Africa Open), Ross Fisher (Tshwane Open), Marco Crespi (NH Collection), Alexander Levy (Volvo China Open), Felipe Aguilar (Championship at Laguna National),  Daniel Brooks (Madeira Island Open), David Horsey (M2M Russian Open), Marc Warren (Made in Denmark) and Jamie Donaldson (Czech Masters)

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Italian Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Italian Open field  in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Italian Open field.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Open D’Italia Lindt

Player Czech Masters The Barclays Made in Denmark Wyndham Champ. PGA Champ. WGC Bridgestone Barracuda Champ. Russian Open Canadian Open British Open Scottish Open John Deere French Open
Marc Warren
(254.67 pts)
DNP DNP Win
(132)
DNP T15
(70)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T39
(14.67)
3
(30)
DNP T26
(8)
Jamie Donaldson
(203.67 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP DNP DNP T24
(52)
T37
(13)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T5
(23.33)
Eddie Pepperell
(143.33 pts)
T5
(70)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Soren Kjeldsen
(132 pts)
T3
(90)
DNP T15
(35)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T41
(3)
DNP T18
(10.67)
Stephen Gallacher
(112 pts)
T7
(55)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-20)
T47
(3)
DNP DNP DNP T15
(46.67)
T4
(26.67)
DNP T18
(10.67)
Phillip Archer
(110 pts)
T30
(20)
DNP 3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Damien McGrane
(101.33 pts)
T52
(0)
DNP T28
(22)
DNP DNP DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP DNP T72
(0)
DNP T12
(12.67)
Francesco Molinari
(96.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T24
(26)
T58
(0)
T31
(19)
DNP DNP DNP T15
(46.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T26
(8)
Kristoffer Broberg
(92 pts)
DNP DNP T28
(22)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T32
(24)
2
(33.33)
DNP T12
(12.67)
Robert Karlsson
(92 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
T46
(8)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(50.67)
T8
(16.67)
DNP 4
(26.67)
Edoardo Molinari
(83 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T46
(8)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T7
(73.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T35
(5)
David Horsey
(82.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T39
(11)
DNP DNP DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Stuart Manley
(81.33 pts)
T23
(27)
DNP T9
(45)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T26
(16)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Craig Lee
(80 pts)
T13
(37)
DNP T15
(35)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T54
(0)
DNP DNP T16
(11.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Oliver Fisher
(71.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
DNP DNP T9
(15)
Sam Walker
(68.33 pts)
T7
(55)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
James Morrison
(67 pts)
T13
(37)
DNP T28
(22)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T51
(0)
DNP DNP T16
(11.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
James Heath
(66.33 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP 82
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T18
(21.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T62
(0)
David Lipsky
(66 pts)
T19
(31)
DNP T15
(35)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
S.S.P. Chowrasia
(64 pts)
T39
(11)
DNP T9
(45)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T38
(8)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Bernd Wiesberger
(60.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP T15
(70)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
T41
(3)
DNP T18
(10.67)
Simon Wakefield
(57.33 pts)
T39
(11)
DNP T9
(45)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T38
(8)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Alexander Levy
(54.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T30
(40)
T58
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T21
(9.67)
DNP T35
(5)
Gareth Maybin
(46.67 pts)
T79
(0)
DNP T9
(45)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T51
(0)
DNP T45
(1.67)
David Howell
(46.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T52
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T15
(46.67)
T35
(5)
DNP T35
(5)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Open D’Italia Lindt

Player Czech Masters The Barclays Made in Denmark Wyndham Champ. PGA Champ. WGC Bridgestone Barracuda Champ. Russian Open Canadian Open British Open Scottish Open John Deere French Open
Justin Walters
(-38.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
DQ
(-1.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Padraig Harrington
(-37 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-20)
DNP T47
(2)
DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
T27
(7.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
David Higgins
(-30 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Ross Fisher
(-28.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T26
(8)
Jose Manuel Lara
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Brett Rumford
(-26.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
John Parry
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Jose-Filipe Lima
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Thomas Levet
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Daniel Brooks
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

The national open of Italy, this event was first started in 1925 when Italian Francesco Pasquali won.  There will be a lot of pride as the Italians try to win there championship, the last Italian to win was Francesco Molinari in 2006.  He was the first Italian champion since Massimo Mannelli won in 1980.

This year’s event has a special date, it’s the last event for Ryder Cup points.  So both the top-nine in the two Ryder Cup rankings and European team captain Paul McGinley’s three wild card picks will come at the conclusion of the event.  With Jamie Donaldson winning last week at the Czech Masters he wrapped up a place on the team.  For this week eyes will be on Stephen Gallacher, who if he wins or finishes second in Italy gets the final berth.  Only problem with that, it places McGinley in the awkward spot of who does he pick.  He gets three picks and conventional wisdom thinks he will pick Ian Poulter, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood.  So if Gallacher gets a spot because of a win or a second, McDowell loses his spot. So McGinley will have to chose three out of the four.  Frankly, I have to think that Gallacher has won his spot, he has had a better year than Poulter, Donald, Westwood and even McDowell.  The only difference, the three have a lot of Ryder Cup experience while Gallacher has never played.  It will be interesting to see what happens if by chance a Francesco Molinari or Joost Luiten win this week.  They aren’t that far down the list and could a victory give them a last moment reprieve?  All good stuff.

What about Circolo Golf Torino:

The mystic of this tournament is that Edoardo and Francesco Molinari honed their games on Golf Club Torino’s two course.  The course is in La Mandria, which is at the base of the Alps and just like in the Omega European Masters this course has some great mountain views.  The club has two 18 hole courses and a nine-hole pitch & Putt.  The Blue Course is being used for this championship, it was built in 1956 by John Morrison and run through ancient trees that have been in the area for hundreds of years.

Key stat for the players to win this week:

Hit lot’s of greens and fairways.  The course isn’t terribly long and the greens are above avearge.  But you can’t wonder off the fairways, some very mature trees will make it impossible to recover if you miss the fairway.  Also look for a player that is hot, they are always favorites in events like this.

The most important stat from last year’s event was how the leaders played the par 4s.  The winner Julien Quesne was 12 under on them while runner-ups David Higgins was 10 under and Steve Webster was 7 under.  All three played the par 4s better than the par 5s which shows a key to winning.

Again we can’t stress looking to see who is playing the best coming into this week.  Eddie Pepperell has a pair of top-fives in his last two starts while Soren Kjeldsen finished T-3rd last week and T-15th the week before.  The chart above on who’s hot and who’s not is important to glance at.

Look for some unsettling weather to hit the region over the weekend.  Thursday and Friday are suppose to be nice but according to the long range plans on Weather.com, Saturday could produce rain and some thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Who to watch for at the Open D’Italia Lindt

Best Bets:

Francesco Molinari

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T16 T46 T8 T6 CUT T3 Win T17 T13 CUT T23

Knows the course better than anyone other than his bother, was leading last year after second round. His summer has not been that bad, could make it better with a win this week.

Marc Warren

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T10 CUT CUT T67 T65 CUT T8

Playing course for the first time, has had success in Italy before and playing well now.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT 9 T67 CUT T51 T56

Has been the most consistent player on the European Tour in 2014, look for a good week from him.

Best of the rest:

Steve Webster

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T2 T57 T33 T46 T23 CUT CUT Win T31

Played well last year and hasn’t been that bad in 2013.

Nicolas Colsaerts

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T4 T5 T3 T30 T12 T32 CUT T26

A pair of top-fives the last two years in Italy, his game has been inconsistent of late but that could change in a moments notice.

Edoardo Molinari

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT T13 T17 T17 T30 CUT CUT CUT T68 CUT

Like his brother, cut his golfing teeth on this course. In some ways he has played here better than his brother as he gets over his wrist injury from last year.

Stephen Gallacher

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT CUT CUT T70 T48 T10

Lot’s of pressure on him may not be helpful. Can he win, yes, will he win this week, no.

Felipe Agullar

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

Played well here last year, also has had a great year a win this week could make it even better.

Solid contenders

Joost Luiten

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT 5 T32

A win this week would place a big cloud on the Ryder Cup wildcard choices. Did finish T-5th in the Italian Open a couple of years ago.

Tommy Fleetwood

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T22

Played well last week including a second round 65. Not much history in playing in Italy, still he could be a big surprise.

Matteo Manassero

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T42 T3 T8 T29 T25

Would love a win in his national championship, only problem his game hasn’t been sharp since the British Open.

Long shots that could come through:

Marco Crespi

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT CUT CUT CUT T33 CUT CUT

Could be the Italian longshot of the week.

Eddie Pepperall

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

A good guy to put a dollar or two on since he has played great the last two weeks.

Romain Wattel

2013 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T8 CUT CUT

Had a top-ten last year.

Speak Your Mind