BlogBMW Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So it’s the third leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, this is probably the one with the biggest cut off.  Up until now you can see that a lot of players that won in 2014, guys like Chesson Hadley, Seung-Yul Noh and Steven Bowditch are still in the field but will get cut on Sunday, unless they have a good week.  This is the overall problem I have with the way the FedEx Cup is done.  It gives way too much credence for that one win and for those that do well in the Barclays and Deutsche Bank.  So for half of the winners in 2014, they are just hanging on because of those wins and will be gone by next week.

One person that I am impressed with is Geoff Ogilvy. With his missed cut at the U.S. Open and then a T-34th at the Canadian Open, he went home to Arizona thinking his season was finished.  In his mind, being 151st in the FedEx Cup race meaning not playing in the FedEx Cup playoffs along with not playing in the PGA Championship meant that he wasn’t going to play again till Frys.  But his wife Juli talked him into playing in the Barracuda Championship and as we so often say, the rest is history.  He won the Barracuda, which got him into the PGA Championship and the FedEx Cup playoffs.  Even though he missed the cut at the Barclays, he was lucky enough to finish on the number, 100, which got him into the Deutsche Bank.  Finishing T-2nd not only gets him into the BMW Championship but probably the Tour Championship since he is 24th in the rankings.  In a way, it reminds me of what happened to Heath Slocum in 2009.  In that year, he didn’t have a very good summer and after missing the cut at the Wyndham Championship thought he wasn’t going to make the playoffs.  But he was lucky and got the 124th spot and won the Barclays.  So in a matter of about a week he went from thinking he wasn’t going to be in the playoffs to then ranked 3rd with a chance of winning.  He didn’t play very well in his last three events but finished 8th in the rankings which is the biggest climb that anyone has ever made in the rankings, 116 spots.  Ogilvy will not break Slocum’s mark of 116 spots since he entered the Barclays 83rd in the rankings, still he has a lot to be proud of with his rapid climb since the end of July.

Is four straight weeks too much?

The answer is yes, yes and yes again.  There are some grumblings that not having a week off in between the Deutsche Bank and BMW is not right.  I for one who thinks most of the players on the PGA are too pampered, agree with their feeling that four straight weeks is too long without a break.  The reason for no off week is the request from the PGA of America and European Tour to have a week off between the Tour Championship and the Ryder Cup.  Players were not happy in 2012 when they had no break between the Tour Championship and the Ryder Cup, but they were given that week off before the Tour Championship.  Frankly only about half of the players in the Ryder Cup will be at the Tour Championship so getting that week off in between doesn’t make as much sense as getting this week off in between the Deutsche Bank and BMW.  Adding to the problem this year is the distance between Boston and Denver and the fact that most of the field has never seen Cherry Hills.  With a Monday finish in Boston it makes it hard on the players to get adjusted to the time change and a new course.  Next year the PGA Tour has put in that off  week in between the Deutsche Bank and BMW but we won’t know what they will do for 2016 which is really crowded with the Ryder Cup and Olympics.

Talking about the Ryder Cup

So it’s Captain Watson’ time to shine on Tuesday night with his three captain picks.  After the PGA Championship he knew the task would be tough and for the players on the bubble they haven’t made his choices any easier.  Now Hunter Mahan probably has won a spot on the team thanks to his T7th at the PGA Championship and victory at the Barclays.  Many may think that Chris Kirk has also earned a spot on the team with his win the Deutsche Bank.  I don’t think so and with some of his media comments about him going to the Georgia game the week of the Ryder Cup no matter what, probably hasn’t helped his cause much.  I would love if Tuesday night Watson would say; “geez I wanted to pick Kirk, but he says that he feels the Georgia game is more important.”  Of course Watson has a lot of class and won’t do that.

So after Mahan who is Watson going to pick?  You have to think that experience is important, remember in 1993 Watson chose Lanny Wadkins and Raymond Floyd.  Don’t think he will go to the same extremes but I do think experience in both the Ryder and Presidents Cup is important.  That’s why I feel Watson will take Keegan Bradley and Bill Haas.  For Keegan, he would have the same presence in the team room as Ian Poulter.  As for Haas, just look at his play of late, he was T9th at the Deutsche Bank, T-15th at the Barclays and T-2nd at the Wyndham so he is in good form.  He also has played in two Presidents Cup.  Now Watson could also go for Webb Simpson, he missed the cut at the PGA Championship and Barclays, but did finish T-5th at Wyndham and T-9ht a Deutsche.

UPDATE:
Boy talk about the tale of two shows. After watching a very shaky morning show from England on the European Tour picks, Golf Channel and the PGA of America produced a first class show. Yes it was way too long, thank goodness for DVR to skip over all of that crap in the first hour, but the production of the picks was great. Like the fact that money was spent in getting the three picks on camera to respond and answer question what an abortion this morning was no being able to hear the players with poor reception and poor planning.

As for the picks it’s the way I thought. Yes I thought Bill Haas would be a notch better for the team, but I have no complaints of the three picks and Webb Simpson was just as good of a pick as anyone else.

Only thing, despite the great American production it’s still going to be a long haul for team USA to snatch the cup away from the European Team. On paper they are more solid than team USA, they have the best players in the world and we have seen the motivation that each match brings. Can team USA pull an upset, yes. Despite many saying that Tom Watson is not in touch because of his age, I think that he brings the experience and passion to pull off the upset.

Guess time will tell. Oh for all of you that are interested in the history of the Ryder Cup, Golfstats has put together the only database in being able to get information on every player that has participated in the matches and every result. Not only is ours the only database on the Web, you can also sort each player to see how he has done in each format, with his partners and how he has fared among the players he has been in matches which.

For more try our our Ryder Cup database here:

Tournament information:

• The Western Open was originally founded and run by the Western Golf Association. First played in 1899, the event is the third oldest professional golf tournament (U.S. Open and British Open are older). Like the other golf tournaments of the time, the Western Open was dominated by visiting professionals from England and Scotland. In its early decades, it was widely regarded as a major championship
• From 1899 until 1961, the Western Open was played at a variety of locations including Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco to name a few. Beginning in 1962, however, the Western Open settled into the Chicago area. It was hosted at different local courses in and around the city.
• In 1974, the Butler National Golf Club in Oak Brook, became the annual venue for the Western Open. The Butler National Golf Club remained the host site until shortly after the 1990 tournament, when the PGA Tour adopted a policy of holding events only at clubs that allowed minorities and women to be members.
• This resulted in Butler National being replaced by the Cog Hill Golf & Country Club in Lemont, Illinois. The Dubsdread Course at Cog Hill played host to the Western Open from 1991 to 2007. With the advent of the new FedEx Cup Series, the PGA Tour decided a change of name was in order. The event name change to the BMW Championship.  Along with the change it was decided to move the tournament around. In 2008 for the first time since 1962 the event was not played in the Chicago area as it moved to St. Louis for the year. In 2012 it went to Indianapolis, Indiana and last year went for the first time to Conway Farms, a course that will hold next year’s BMW Championship.  But the thought for the future of this event is to move it around, looks like Crooked Stick in Indianapolis will get the 2016 BMW and there have been quiet rumors that Harding Park in San Francisco could one day host this event.  The point is, look for this event to move around the country.

Off to Cherry Hills

What a great choice using Cherry Hills for the BMW Championship.  Cherry Hills has earned its place in championship history, and many think that just because the USGA or PGA don’t use it for their championships that the course isn’t tough anymore.  That’s not the case.  It’s like the scenario of Riviera in Los Angeles in which the neighborhood grew up to the point that Riviera or Cherry Hills can’t handle a really big event.  The same course that held three U.S. Opens, a U.S. Senior Open, and two PGA Championships is not the same course that will be used this week.  The original William Flynn layout underwent a restoration and modification headed by Tom Doak in 2008. That work primarily involved changes to three greens and bunkers, the removal of trees and a lengthening of some holes.  That along with the always tough Bluegrass rough will make Cherry Hills shine this week, and it needs to.  That’s because the club would like to have another U.S. Open or PGA Championship in future years so this week is very important to them.

Course information:

• Cherry Hills was opened in 1922 and designed by William Flynn.  Tom Doak did some touch up work in 2008, but the basic course and routing has never changed in 92 years.  The rolling terrain and meandering creek help in making this a true test of golf. The opening hole is best-known for being the par four that Arnold Palmer drove on the final day of the 1960 U.S. Open, which lead to a birdie and eventually the victory. The back nine is Cherry Hills’ strength on the merits of the 12th, 14th, 16th, 17th, and 18th holes which features several hazards and classic shapes. Overall, Cherry Hills is a classicly designed parkland course that may not blow you away on your first visit, but is the type of design that builds up throughout the round and finishes with a bang.
• Water comes in play on nine holes, but drastically on only five holes, 12, 14, 16, 17 and 18.  The hardest hole could be the 18th, which for the members plays as a par 5, but for this week will be a 477 yard par 4.  Water comes in play in which you have to drive over it, and you can cut off as much as you chose with the lake down the left-hand side.  Water also plays an important factor on the 16th hole and the par 5, 17th which has an island green.  Lot’s of decisions on either laying up and going for this green will be made this week.  Four of the par 4s plays over 475 yards as distance is reduced on this course that sits at over 5,000 feet in elevation.
• Also look for tough fairways to hit and once you do the greens only average 4,700 square feet making them very hard to hit.  There may be 82 bunkers, but they are more for decoration than making the course tougher to play.  From the back tees, Cherry Hills has a 74.7 rating and a 139 slope.

Key stat for the winner:

Learning this course in a short amount of time.  Only 10% of the field has seen the course, yes Phil Mickelson won the 1990 Amateur on it but in looking at the 2012 Amateur, Jordan Spieth was the only player to make it to match play and he lost his round of 64 match.  Cameron Tringale played the 2009 Palmer Cup at Cherry Hills, but for the others they have not played a competition on the course.  Cherry Hills head pro told the Denver Post that some of the players flew to Denver over the summer and played practice rounds on the course but on the whole, very few have seen the course.  With the Deutsche Bank ending on Monday, it could mean that most of the players will only see the course once or twice before Thursday’s first round.  In the past, looking at first time courses on the PGA Tour nobody has an advantage so a Matt Every or Steven Bowditch could have the same odds as a Rory McIlroy or Adam Scott.

I also can see high scoring this week, with the lack of knowledge par tends to be the King as birdies and eagles are scarce.  I can see ten under being the winning score this week as players try to learn the secrets of playing the course.

Remember this, tight fairways and small greens make this a scramblers delight.  Look at the scrambling stats for the year and don’t be shocked to see those in the top-ten (Jim Furyk (1st), Kevin Na (2nd), Sergio Garcia (4th), Brendon Todd (6th), Jason Day (8th), Chris Kirk (9th) and Jordan Spieth (10th) winning this week.

So with hard greens to hit, does this favor a Rory McIlroy?  Yes, in looking at the Greens hit stat for 2014 he is 6th which favors him in hitting lots of greens.  With Henrik Stenson T8th and Sergio Garcia 10th they could be your winner this week.

Another important element in small greens, making putts in the 5 to 15 foot range, on new courses and ones with small greens great putters always do well.

Lastly, the weather in Denver.  In the summer they always seem to get late afternoon thunderstorms everyday, that’s just the life of Denver in the summer.  This week is more of the same, long range forecast is for scattered Thunderstorms Friday through Sunday.