BlogWales Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

With Billy Horschel and Paul Casey winning last week many are asking the question, do captains Tom Watson and Paul McGinley think that maybe it’s time to change the rules on wildcard picks.  The whole reason for these wildcard picks is to get the best players at the moment on the team.  But with the picks coming with three weeks of golf left, doesn’t this rule defeat the reason for the wildcard picks?  I understand the reason for doing it three weeks before the matches, but on something this important I don’t think you will get any complaining from players chosen a week before the matches began.  Of course the worst is that a player could say he isn’t playing, in the case of Horschel whose wife is having the couples first child next week, BIlly may of taken a pass.  But you never know, maybe the child could have been induced early and Horschel would have played but isn’t the point of the picks to get the best players at the moment?

Hopefully, wiser minds will prevail in the coming years, but it’s too bad that some of the hottest players right now won’t be at the Ryder Cup matches.

I know that this week is about the European Tour, but since there isn’t a PGA Tour event for three weeks, just have to comment on Billy Horschel win.  It was great, money wise he saved his best golf for when it counted.  Amazing to think that after Horschel missed the cut at The Barclays, he was 82nd in the rankings and had to play hard at the Deutsche Bank just to continue in the playoffs.  Another amazing thing to think of going into the BMW Championship he had made 24 PGA Tour starts in 2014 and only had two top-tens, a pair of six place finishes.  So the least think on anyone’s mind was him winning the FedEx Cup playoffs.

Personally I have a problem with a year long program in which a guy can win the whole thing in the last 12 rounds of the year.  Yes, Horschel played great as he was 38 under par in those 12 rounds, but winning a total of $13.4 million to many could be a bit extreme.  If you ask Horschel if he would rather win one Masters or U.S. Open instead of the $13.4 million, it would be interesting to see his answer.  Talking about winning a major, Tiger won 14 of them and earned $14.3 million over the course of just 11 years.  But the riches of the PGA Tour are so great that over the course of three weeks if you play the best you can win a million shy what Tiger won by winning 14 majors.

Season is way too long with Football killing it:

One last thing to tie up the end of the PGA Tour, in just two weeks players will be gathering for the start of the 2015 season.  Now to many these playoff events weren’t very popular.  The ratings were dismal, matter of fact if you take out the majors and WGC events you would probably be shocked at how low the ratings were for 2014.  But that is another topic, the point I am trying to make is that the PGA Tour season has to be shortened.  Of course, we have no complaints about the upcoming seven events in the fall, they take care of the need of the hard core fan.  But come January 9th the real season begins at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and will stretch to September 27th, the last day of the Tour Championship.  I just think it’s high time that the PGA Tour does something to shorten this.  First of all the PGA Tour shouldn’t start until the week of Thursday January 15th, which would be the week of the divisional NFL playoffs.  The season should end on Labor Day weekend and shouldn’t go past that point.  I think that after the PGA Championship many turn golf off and the PGA Tour should heed that.  The ratings prove that and these playoffs are getting lost, so something has to be done before the 2016 season.  With this move, you will have to lose four events, by thoughts is that you don’t lose them but move them.  You can easily take the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and Sony Open, two events played in Hawaii and move them either before the WGC-HSBC Champions in China or afterwards.  With the CIMB in Malaysia, it would be a great stepping stone to having the two Hawaiian events before or after.  You could also move the Humana Challenge to the fall, all three are Golf Channel shows so you’re not screwing these tournaments.  That would leave one other events to get moved to the fall, probably the Valspar Championship or the Valero Texas Open, the point is to clear out the main network events, so they don’t compete against the NFL and to end the season early.

Back to Wales:

This week the European Tour is in Wales and goes to the site of the 2010 Ryder Cup.  Only four Ryder Cup players are in the field, but the event is important because for many, this is important in the Race to Dubai and get ready for year-end honors.

The big question will be is this a good warmup for those playing in the Ryder Cup?  Yes and no, the courses are similar but the grass are totally different.  For many it’s important to be ready by playing the week before but for the 20 other players you can see that a week off is welcomed.  This event is also important for the European Tour, it may be in Wales but it’s still on the British Island.  The first year of this event, if you don’t count the British Open there were 11 events in England, Wales and Scotland and three in Ireland.  In 2014, not counting the British Open there are just five events in England, Wales and Scotland with Ireland only having one, so each event on the British Islands is important.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the ISPS Handa Wales Open:

Key stat for the winner:

If you look at the last five winners, they have something in common, hitting lots of greens.  2010 winner Graeme McDowell led the field while 2011 champion Alex Noren was T2nd.  Last year Thongchai Jaidee was T7th, hitting 53 of the 72 greens so look for good ball strikers to rule.  Last year Gregory Bourdy only hit 48 of the 72 which is the lowest of the champions, but I still think you have to hit a lot of greens to do well in this event.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Length is obviously not an issue so that opens things up quite a bit. Look for the winner to be someone who doesn’t like to muscle up with the driver, and just settle for using a long iron for control. Look at some of the past winners of the event they don’t over power the course so looking for accuracy over length.

Water hazards come into play on 10 holes, and wind is often a factor on this relatively flat course that sits in a Valley.

Just because a player won this event in the past doesn’t mean instant success this year.  Of the past champions done of them have had much success in years after so just because someone played well the previous year doesn’t mean he will play well this year.  I would look at our who’s hot list of players from the European Tour to find a winner.

The weather looks like it’s going to be perfect for all two of the four days with rain on Friday and Saturday.  But temperature wise every day will be in the low 70s so it’s going to be nice.  Of for those wondering about the Ryder Cup, since weather can be touch and go in September in Scotland, the weather the last three weeks has been perfect.  Unfortunely things are changing this week and it’s getting colder with more bouts of rain.  It looks like each day of the Ryder Cup will have temperatures in the mid-50s with a chance of rain.  Hopefully that will change but as one friend in Scotland told me over the weekend, the weather has been way too good for about a month now, it can’t last.