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BlogFrys.com Open Preview and Picks

Frys.com Open

October 9 – 12, 2014

Silverado C.C. (North Course)

Napa, Ca.

Par: 72 / Yardage:

Purse: $6 Million

with $1,080,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jimmy Walker

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 6 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with one top-ten player #9 Matt Kuchar.   The other top 50 players are #19 Jimmy Walker, #20 Hideki Matsuyama, #22 Hunter Mahan, #45 Lee Westwood and #48 Kevin Streelman.  That is three more top-50 players than were in the field last year.

One bit of bad news, Patrick Reed was initially in the field, that is until he got an invite to play in next week’s very lucrative World Match Play Championship in London.

The field includes 5 of the Top 25 on last year’s final FedEx point standings for 2014.  Those players include #6 Hunter Mahan, #7 Jimmy Walker, #8 Matt Kuchar, #22 Camron Tringale and #22 Gary Woodland.

The field includes 4 players in the top 25 on last year’s PGA Tour money list, #4 Jimmy Walker, #9 Matt Kuchar, #22 Hunter Mahan and #23 Harris English.

The field includes all 5 past champions: Jimmy Walker (2014), Jonas Blixt (2012), Bryce Molder (2011), Troy Matteson (2009), and Mike Weir (2007).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Frys.com Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at Frys.com Open in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Frys.com Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

 

 

 

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Frys.com Open

Player Dunhill Links Wales Open Tour Champ. KLM Open BMW Champ. European Masters Deutsche Bank Italian Open The Barclays Wyndham Champ. PGA Champ. Barracuda Champ. WGC Bridgestone
Brooks Koepka
(158.33 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T11
(26)
DNP
 
T3
(60)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T38
(4)
T15
(23.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Jimmy Walker
(151.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T17
(33)
DNP
 
T20
(30)
DNP
 
T9
(45)
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
DNP
 
T7
(36.67)
DNP
 
T26
(12)
Hunter Mahan
(147.17 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
T23
(27)
DNP
 
T59
(0)
DNP
 
64
(0)
DNP
 
Win
(66)
DNP
 
T7
(36.67)
DNP
 
T15
(17.5)
Matt Kuchar
(116 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
13
(37)
DNP
 
T46
(4)
DNP
 
T29
(21)
DNP
 
T5
(35)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T12
(19)
Cameron Tringale
(100.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
15
(35)
DNP
 
T31
(19)
DNP
 
T69
(0)
DNP
 
T2
(50)
DNP
 
DQ
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Hideki Matsuyama
(93.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
22
(28)
DNP
 
T20
(30)
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T30
(10)
CUT
(-3.33)
T35
(10)
DNP
 
T12
(19)
Kevin Chappell
(75 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T16
(34)
DNP
 
T50
(1)
DNP
 
T30
(10)
DNP
 
T13
(24.67)
T34
(5.33)
DNP
 
Chesson Hadley
(73 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T12
(38)
DNP
 
T9
(45)
DNP
 
70
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Richard Sterne
(70 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T67
(0)
T35
(10)
DNP
 
T58
(0)
Carl Pettersson
(69.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T31
(19)
DNP
 
T9
(45)
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
T18
(10.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Robert Streb
(62.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T9
(45)
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
T18
(10.67)
DNP
 
T14
(12)
DNP
 
Graham Delaet
(55.83 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
11
(39)
DNP
 
T50
(1)
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
DNP
 
T15
(23.33)
DNP
 
WD
(-2.5)
Brandt Snedeker
(52 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
T5
(23.33)
T13
(24.67)
DNP
 
T12
(19)
William McGirt
(51.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
65
(0)
DNP
 
T69
(0)
DNP
 
T5
(35)
T8
(16.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Russell Knox
(50.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T23
(27)
DNP
 
T26
(24)
DNP
 
T38
(6)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Brian Stuard
(47.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T36
(14)
DNP
 
T16
(34)
DNP
 
T74
(0)
T32
(6)
CUT
(-6.67)
72
(0)
DNP
 
Stuart Appleby
(44.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T46
(4)
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T2
(50)
T38
(4)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Marc Leishman
(42.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T53
(0)
DNP
 
T65
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
DNP
 
T46
(2.67)
DNP
 
3
(45)
Jerry Kelly
(42.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T29
(21)
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T38
(6)
DNP
 
T27
(15.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Lee Westwood
(38.83 pts)
DNP
 
T60
(0)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T15
(23.33)
DNP
 
T19
(15.5)
Ben Crane
(37.17 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T23
(27)
DNP
 
T29
(21)
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
DNP
 
WD
(-3.33)
DNP
 
WD
(-2.5)
Daniel Summerhays
(34.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T29
(21)
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T46
(2)
DNP
 
T33
(11.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Charles Howell III
(33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T36
(14)
DNP
 
T35
(15)
DNP
 
T22
(14)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Martin Laird
(32 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T14
(12)
DNP
 
T6
(20)
DNP
 
Bo Van Pelt
(30.5 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
T13
(18.5)
T14
(12)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Frys.com Open

Player Dunhill Links Wales Open Tour Champ. KLM Open BMW Champ. European Masters Deutsche Bank Italian Open The Barclays Wyndham Champ. PGA Champ. Barracuda Champ. WGC Bridgestone
Ben Martin
(-14.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
T46
(2)
DNP
 
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Robert Garrigus
(-14 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-10)
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
T47
(1)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Davis Love III
(-13.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Robert Allenby
(-11.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Aaron Baddeley
(-11.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
James Hahn
(-8.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
T57
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Billy Hurley III
(-8.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
T57
(0)
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
Pat Perez
(-7.33 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
WD
(-5)
DNP
 
CUT
(-5)
DNP
 
T46
(2.67)
DNP
 
DNP
 
Ken Duke
(-6.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
Lucas Glover
(-6.67 pts)
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
 

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Hard to believe that just like that 2014 is ended, and the 2015 season is starting up.  Yes, because the new wrap around schedule makes playing in October in the 2015 season, it’s a great way of getting a jump on folks.  For Jimmy Walker, he loved what happen last year as he won the Frys and then followed it up with wins at the Sony Open in Hawaii and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am.  After that Walker had top-tens in the Masters, Players Championship, Colonial, U.S. Open, PGA Championship and the Deutsche Bank.  So you can see the reasons he finished 7th in the FedEx Cup race and 4th on the money list.

After last year, it will be interesting to see if more players participate in one of these next seven events.  Now it doesn’t mean that you’re at an impossible disadvantage, Jim Furyk didn’t play his first events until Pebble and still finished 4th in the FedEx Cup race.  It’s just a way to get a big head start on things.

One of the things that happened between 2007 and 2014 was the Golf Channel became the place to watch golf.  They don’t mind competing with the NFL even though I have been told that Golf Channel loses a fortune with these fall events.  With this and the advent of events in Asian coming online, this created a way for the PGA Tour to complete against the NFL.  Frankly it’s like background noise, nice to have PGA Tour golf in the fall but it’s still not the same as golf between the Hawaii stops and the Tour Championship.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of years.  There is room for golf in the fall, a lot of folks want to see an event every week.  But for the players, especially your marquee names they want to be off in the fall, even with good events in China like the HSBC.  Problem with that, players take time off during the west coast events in January and February so there isn’t any perfect solution.

I also wouldn’t be a surprised in the near future to see three events from January move to the fall.  The first is Humana, which has lost its sponsor after 2015.  I can easily see this becoming a fall event next year under a new sponsor.  I can also see the Hyundai and Sony moving, would make sense as a stopping point before the tour goes to Malaysia and China.  So what would be gained for the PGA Tour with this move?  You wouldn’t have events the first three weeks in January, weeks that are dominated by the NFL in playoffs.  The PGA Tour can complete with the Super Bowl, which is played later in the day, but it can’t complete against playoff games that run at the same time. So you are playing these first three events up against the NFL and also on Golf Channel. Not downgrading Golf Channel, just saying a network will get you more eyes watching, so it’s only smart business to just not play golf up against these playoffs.  Also, it’s not like your getting the best players in the world to show up. They complain that they need those weeks off, so maybe a move of these three events would help the overall picture of golf.

Ryder Cup thoughts:

Last but not least we have to talk about the Ryder Cup.  I have been to every Ryder Cup since 1979 and have to say that last months affair in Scotland has to be the low point.  Let’s face it, American players are prima donna’s that aren’t comfortable in playing team events that include match play and partnerships.  We have made fun of Tiger Woods as a person that doesn’t do well when he has to partner up with others. The fact is most of the players on the PGA Tour don’t know how to play with each other.  The Europeans hangout together, like each other as a family unit and do well in different games like foursomes. But our guys just don’t seem motivated together.

Phil Mickelson brought up an important point in saying how Paul Azinger seemed to motivate players in the 2008 Ryder Cup with a different style.  The fact is simple, Tom Watson captaincy wasn’t well received by the players and turned into one of the low points for the Americans in Ryder Cup history.  It’s too bad for Watson, a proud man who had his reputation hurt by the challenge of being captain.  The days of playing for an older person like Watson who at 65, about 20 years older than the oldest players on the America team, is probably over.  Watson is a superstar from a different era, a time when the way he captained this year wasn’t respected and liked.  This is a different era of players that need a person that is more associated with them.

It’s not like Watson didn’t try to be closure to his players, he attended a lot of PGA Tour events and spent lots of time with them.  But his attitude was one from a different era and one that didn’t go over very well.  We heard the rumors of players snickering over some of Tom’s thoughts and decisions.  The players just didn’t buy into his style, and that’s why you’re hearing some of this gossip of player unrest.

It will be debated if Phil Mickelson was too harsh in the media interview the Sunday after the singles.  I was there and it wasn’t like Phil was dying to be a tell-all, he was answering a simple question from a reporter on what he thought was great about the 2008 team.  Phil may of gone a bit too far and frankly we will never know if he had any ill-will against Tom Watson and wanted to get his aggression out.  The overall aspect of this is more embarrassment for Watson, the PGA of America and to the players themselves.

The PGA of America will need to think hard about the next captain.  I also think the PGA and golf needs to think hard about the future of the Ryder Cup.  For me, I was very bored over the affair on Sunday, matter of fact I am bored period with not only the Ryder Cup but golf in general.  It’s a bit like having sex twice a day, seven days a week, there is way too much of it to keep us interested.  I feel the PGA Tour has done too good of a job in creating these new events like the FedEx Cup and the Presidents Cup.  These events have created a reason for golf being very boring.  You think American players like playing every year in the Presidents Cup and the Ryder Cup?  There is nothing to look forward to, the Europeans only play once every two years and have something to look forward to.  It’s hard to invision the PGA of America, The PGA Tour, the PGA of Britain and the European Tour doing this.  How about having a Ryder Cup once every two years that includes everyone and we don’t have the Presidents Cup anymore.  Is there a fair way in which Europe expands to include Africa and Asia while America gets Canada, South America and Australia?  Then you will get the best players in the world playing just once every two years.  While I am at it, I think there is too much golf from the British Open through the Ryder/Presidents Cup.  I think the FedEx Cup is too cumbersome and frankly important golf should be limited to between the Super Bowl and the start of the NFL season.  Half of the European team didn’t play in the FedEx Cup playoffs, which I think could be an advantage for them.

I’d be interested in hearing from others on this topic, either below in our speak your mind box or send me an email to Sal@golfstats.com.

About the Frys.com Open:

This event started in Scottsdale, Arizona and after three years at Grayhawk transferred to CordeValle Golf Club, close to it’s sponsors headquarters in San Jose.  The hope was that CordeValle would be a temporary home as it’s been a dream to hold the event at the Institute Golf Course in Morgan Hill, CA.   But construction problems and such have forced the event not to be played on the ultra private course that very few have ever seen.  So CordeValle was to be a short term fix, and for this year and next the event moves to Napa Valley and the Silverado resort for the next two years.  Then the event is supposed to move to the Institute Golf Course (which is suppose to be a great course).  I will believe it when it does happen, which I don’t think it will.

Silverado course information:

Many will not remember, but Silverado was a proud site of the PGA Tour between 1968 to 1980 and then held a senior event, the Transamerica between 1990 and 2002.  So Silverado had a deep relationship with professional golf.  The resort changed direction because it didn’t need to spend the money to host a professional event.  Napa Valley has become a great destination for couples over 40, between the great weather and the vineyards, Silverado didn’t need it.  The resort lost some of its touch and needed some sprucing up. One of the areas that have been improved was the golf courses.  There are two of them, the South and the North, a couple of years ago Johnny Miller put together an investment group that purchased the courses, and Miller reworked the North Course. What Miller did was revamped all of the greens, put in new bunkering and realigned the fairways and trimmed the trees that were too cumbersome.  Of course because of the downturn of the golf marketplace, Miller didn’t go crazy by changing a lot of the holes, adding lakes and streams.  Still Miller is happy at the work, and he is hopeful to be able to do the same to the South Course.

So what will the pros find this week?  The greens are one of the things that Miller points out that makes it a better course.  “These greens are as tough as Augusta at high speeds,” Miller said to Golf.com. “I would probably have five three putts a round.”  The course was also increased from 6,900 to 7,203.  Now on the surface this may be too short for the best pros in the world.  So I can see both the long distance players having a field day while the shorter hitters also enjoying shorter approaches to the greens.  One thing that was brought out in the 13 years it was played in the 70s,  the caliber of champions which included players like Billy Casper, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson and Ben Crenshaw among it’s champions.

Another important aspect of the Miller redo, in an effort to improve playability and aesthetics, turf renovation got rid of Kikuyu grass and return the course to its original mix of rye and Kentucky bluegrass condition.  Will all of this be enough, guess we will know in the next couple of days.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Frys.com Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Since this is a new course for all of the players, experience will play a very limited role.  Traditionally tournaments on the PGA Tour that hold events for the first year, usually, are won by journeymen and players with very little experience winning.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Johnny Miller says the greens are perfect and fast, so good putter should have a field day.
  • Scrambling is also very important because it’s not that demanding around the greens at Silverado. So greens hit isn’t as important as being able to get up and down on those missed.
  • Weather, come on do we have to talk about it?  We know it’s going to be picture perfect every day, in the mid-70s with lot’s of sun.
  • Lastly, the field isn’t loaded with many marquee and experience players.   Look for someone that has not been in the winners circle to prevail since over 75% of the field have not won on the PGA Tour.  Also with this being the first event of a new year look for a lot of guys off the Web.Com priority list to be playing.  This year 39 of the top-41 off that list are in the field.  For some reason, Bud Cauley and Tom Gillis are the only ones that didn’t play.

 

Who to watch for at the Frys.com Open

Best Bets:

Brooks Koepka

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T3

Played well the last couple of months, also was good in this event last year. Look for him to have a break out year.

Graham DeLaet

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T6

Look for a breakout year from him with it starting off with a bang with him winning this week.

Hideki Matsuyama

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T3

Another player that is going to make some noise in 2015 starting this week.

Best of the rest:

Matt Kuchar

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

He didn’t have that great of a 2015, look for him to break out on a course that is right up his alley.

Jimmy Walker

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
Win T4 CUT WD CUT

He loves fall golf and I see him continuing this trend.

Hunter Mahan

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

Coming off a weak time at the Ryder Cup, course should be good for him.

Brandt Snedeker

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

There is a song in these parts “where did you go Mrs. Robinson,” I would ask the same question, where have you gone Brandt Snedeker. Look for a good week from him.

Solid contenders

Lee Westwood

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

Only problem could be the fast greens, he is looking to regain some of his lost magic.

Charles Howell III

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T33 T11

It’s the west coast, he always seems to do well out west.

Harris English

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

This is also his time to do well.

Richard Sterne

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

I see a lot of good things from our newest member of the PGA Tour.

Long shots that could come through:

Jason Kokrak

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T12 T2

Coming back from injury, he started 2014 great playing well in the fall events, look for more of the same this year.

Cameron Tringale

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT 79 CUT

Started playing well at he end of August and September, could continue the good play.

Brendan Steele

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
CUT CUT T7

Another of these guys that we watch and wonder when he will break through again.

Speak Your Mind