BlogHSBC Champions Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The PGA Tour has another week in Asia and the last WGC event of 2014 (or should we say the first one on the PGA Tour 2015 schedule).  In a way with so much money offered (first place check of $1.4 million) and the European Tour final series going on, it’s hard to believe that so many players aren’t here.  First you have #1 ranked Rory McIlroy, who decided that he wasn’t going and used his legal problems as an excuse.  Sorry Rory, you will have weeks ahead to catch up with your lawyers on his upcoming suit with his former management team.  So we just don’t buy him not playing in the first two final playoff series events, possibly he didn’t want to travel to China is a better excuse.  He has a big enough lead he  could take the whole four-week playoffs off and still win the Race to Dubai.  So maybe the European Tour needs to make some changes so that there is some value to play in these playoff events.

It’s nice to see a sponsor willing to put up so much money for a fall event but frankly this is all about golf in China and this is the right time to showcase this event.  The last thing the PGA Tour wants is this event to move to February or March and interrupt the flow of the regular season, so November is the perfect time to play this event.  Unfortunately that means it doesn’t get the same effect that the other three WGC events get, at least we can say there is one WGC event played outside of America.

Now there is a bit of an oddity about this event, on the PGA Tour this is considered a 2015 event while on the European Tour it’s finishing up the 2014 season.  This is something that can’t get worked out, the European Tour needs this event as one of their four final series events and the PGA Tour is already four weeks into the 2015 season.  So there is no graceful way of doing this, the nice thing is that for the PGA Tour it’s official, and players get FedEx Cup points.  One other small item, there aren’t many big events left in the 2014 calendar year.  So for those between 44 and 60th in the world rankings this could be the last time that they could help their cause in world ranking points.  At the end of the year those in the top-50 of the rankings will receive invites to the Masters.  So for guys like #47 Marc Leishman, #49 Brandt Snedeker and #51 Shane Lowry they are looking to improve their positions so that they can be in the top-50 of the world rankings on December 31st.

One other person that could be a bit worried is Graham Delaet, who is 46th in the world rankings.  He tweaked his back at the Frys.Com Open pulling out a boundary stake and has struggled ever since.  He flew to Malaysia last week only to play a hole and withdraw and now it looks like Delaet may have a bulging disc, according to Steve Sands of the Golf Channel who was in Malaysia.  DeLaet is still in the field of the HSBC, but I wouldn’t put any wagers on him with this possible injury.

Tournament Information:

This event started in 2006 and played at Sheshan Golf Club.  Because of the big purse and the event giving out appearance money, most of the top players of the time including Tiger Woods played.  Tiger came close finishing second in it’s first year as David Howell won by three shots.  The event was part of the European Tour and despite being played in November was the leadoff event for the European Tour’s wrap-around season.  So the first event was played in November of 2005 but counted for the European Tour’s 2006 season.  It continued to grow for the next three years as more marquee names went to China and in November of 2008 the European Tour started it’s 2009 season with Sergio Garcia winning.  Right after the tournament, it became part of the World Golf Championship series, which help elevate it.  At the same time, the European Tour revamped the way they ended their season, so the event in November of 2009 was included in the 2009 European Tour season.  This created the problem of the same event being played twice in the same season.  Phil Mickelson won the November 2009 HSBC and despite the PGA Tour being part of the WGC was not considered an official PGA Tour event.

The tournament went on a bizarre three-year journey.  Beginning in 2010, the HSBC Champions counted as an official PGA Tour victory and offered a three-year exemption on the PGA Tour, provided the tournament was won by a PGA Tour member. Prize money, however, did not count toward the official PGA TOUR money list, even if a PGA Tour member won the tournament. Tournament winners during this timeframe include: 2010 – Francesco Molinari (unofficial PGA Tour win); 2011 – Martin Kaymer (unofficial PGA Tour win); 2012 – Ian Poulter (official PGA Tour win).

On the final day of the 2012 event, HSBC announced renewal of its title sponsorship through 2015.  With this announcement the HSBC became part of the PGA Tour’s FedExCup schedule.  It awarded official money and FedExCup points (and a three-year exemption) beginning in 2013 (which later changed to 2014 because the Tour went to a wrap-around schedule for events ending in 2013).  Sound confusing, it is so you just have to remember one thing.  The first “official” WGC-HSBC for the PGA Tour was the one played in November of 2013, but it counted for the 2014 PGA Tour season.  So this week’s event counts on the 2015 PGA Tour season and the 2014 European Tour season.

Course information: 

The Sheshan Golf Club is a par-72 golf course that was designed by Robin Nelson and Neil Haworth and opened in 2004. Sheshan International Golf Club features beautiful tree-lined fairways and gentle rolling hills around 1000-year-old Gingko trees, calm waterways, and a spectacular natural quarry. Set in the shadow of the Basilica of our Lady of Sheshan Cathedral and surrounded by beautiful Italian Tuscan inspired villas, Sheshan provides a truly unique experience.  Although located in the city of Shanghai, the serene surroundings suggest a genuine feeling of seclusion and nature.

Featuring well-placed bunkers throughout the golf course along with, deep collection areas, beautiful water features, and undulating greens.  The natural forestation was integrated into the course design. 10,000 trees and natural foliage has been preserved. Two 1000-year-old ginko trees grace the 4th hole. 16 million cubic meters of dirt was moved to create elevation, bunkers and valleys. Sheshan provides a beautiful and challenging golf course for all, including the best Tour Professionals in the world and is considered one of the best courses in China.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the WGC-HSBC Champions:

Key stat for the winner:

Event will be played again at Sheshan after being played in 2012 at Mission Hills.  In the previous years held at Sheshan, there is no one stat that you can put your fingers on and say, geez this course favors such and such a player.  So we have to look at those that have played well before at Sheshan, one thing pops up.  All the recent champions had one thing in their favor, they had a very good year going into this event.  Look at Martin Kaymer in 2011, he had been playing well for two years, winning the PGA Championship.  In 2010, Francesco Molinari was putting the finishes touch on a great year, same with winners Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia.  So look for a player that has had a great 2013 to win this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

One thing that is for certain, look for a high ranked player to win.  The lowest-ranked player in the Official World Golf Ranking to win the HSBC Champions was Y.E. Yang, who was No. 77 when he won the event in 2006.  Here is a look at the HSBC champions over the years and how they ranked in the world rankings prior to victory:

• 2013, Dustin Johnson, No. 23
• 2012, Ian Poulter, No. 26
• 2011, Martin Kaymer No. 6
• 2010, Francesco Molinari No. 30
• 2009, Phil Mickelson No. 2
• 2008, Sergio Garcia No. 3
• 2007, Phil Mickelson No. 2
• 2006, Y.E. Yang No. 77
• 2005, David Howell No. 19

With tight fairways and lot’s of roll in them, accuracy is important but not a big key.  The more important factor in looking at past years is a player that can dominate the par 4s. It’s also interesting to note that last five champions at Sheshan (not including 2012 when it was played at Missing Hills) have been 48 under on the par 4s, in 2013 Dustin Johnson was 12 under, 2011 Martin Kaymer was 10 under, Francisco Molinari was 12 under in 2010, Phil Mickelson was 10 under in 2009 and Sergio Garcia was 4 under in 2008.
Last week in Malaysia the weather was good even with hot muggy conditions.  Things will be totally different this week as temperatures will be in the 60s each day and no rain.  For more on the weather check out this link on Weather.com
Again like we say, look for the player with the hot hand.  Those that played well at both the BMW Masters and the CIMB Classic will play well this week.