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BlogDP World Dubai Preview and Picks

DP World Championship Dubai

November 20 – 23, 2014

Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,675

Purse: $8 Million

with $1,257,477 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Henrik Stenson

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 19 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with four top-ten players in the field, #1 Rory McIlroy, #4 Henrik Stenson, #6 Sergio Garcia and #7 Justin Rose.  The other top-50 players in the field are #12 Martin Kaymer, #15 Graeme McDowell, #22 Victor Dubuisson, #24 Jamie Donaldson, #26 Ian Poulter, #29 Joost Luiten, #32 Thomas Bjorn, #35 Brooks Koepka, #38 Stephen Gallacher, #39 Luke Donald, #41 Miguel A. Jimenez, #42 Mikko Ilonen, #43 Lee Westwood and #45 Thomgchai Jaidee.

The field includes all of the players in the top-60 on this year’s Race to Dubai money list.  

The field includes 4 of the 5 past champions: Henrik Stenson (2013),Rory McIlroy (2012), Robert Karlsson (2010) and Lee Westwood (2000).

The field includes 26 players that have won 31 European Tour events this year: Charl Schwartzel (Alfred Dunhill), Thomas Bjorn (Nedbank), Miguel A. Jimenez (Hong Kong, Open de Espana), Louis Oosthuizen (Volvo Golf Champions), Pablo Larrazabal (Abu Dhabi), Sergio Garcia (Qatar Masters), Stephen Gallacher (Dubai Desert Classic), George Coetzee (Joburg Open), Thomas Aiken (Africa Open), Ross Fisher (Tshwane Open), Lee Westwood (Maybank Malaysian Open), Alexander Levy (Volvo China Open & Portugal Masters), Rory McIlroy (BMW PGA Championship, Open Championship & PGA Championship), Thongchai Jaidee (Nordea Masters), Martin Kaymer (U.S.Open), Mikko Ilonen (Irish Open & Volvo Match Play), Fabrizio Zanotti (BMW International), Graeme McDowell (French Open), Justin Rose (Scottish Open),  Marc Warren (Made in Denmark), Jamie Donaldson (Czech Masters), Hennie Otto (Open D’Italia) Joost Luiten (Wales Open). Thorbjorn Olesen (Handa Perth), Marcel Siem (BMW Masters) and Brooks Koepka (Turkish Airlines Open)

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the DP World Championship field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at DP World Championship in the last five years or check out our brand new and sortable 8-year glance at the DP World Championship.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the DP World Championship Dubai

Player Turkish Airlines WGC HSBC BMW Masters CIMB Classic Handa Wales McGladrey Classic Volvo Match Play Hong Kong Shriners Hospitals Portugal Masters Frys.com Open Dunhill Links Handa Perth
Alexander Levy
(260 pts)
T11
(39)
T11
(39)
T2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP T25
(8.33)
DNP
Brooks Koepka
(235.67 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP T48
(2)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP T8
(33.33)
T9
(15)
DNP
Marcel Siem
(214.33 pts)
T8
(50)
T48
(2)
Win
(132)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T11
(13)
DNP
Victor Dubuisson
(174 pts)
T15
(35)
WD
(-5)
T21
(29)
DNP DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
2
(66.67)
Romain Wattel
(164 pts)
T11
(39)
DNP T6
(60)
DNP T9
(15)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Joost Luiten
(162.67 pts)
T25
(25)
T28
(22)
T13
(37)
DNP Win
(44)
DNP 3
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Jamie Donaldson
(162.33 pts)
T19
(31)
T24
(26)
T4
(80)
DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Henrik Stenson
(156.67 pts)
3
(90)
T24
(26)
DNP DNP DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Shane Lowry
(153.67 pts)
T25
(25)
34
(16)
T16
(34)
DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP T9
(30)
DNP DNP T33
(11.33)
DNP T6
(20)
DNP
Nicolas Colsaerts
(146.67 pts)
T52
(0)
DNP T6
(60)
DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Danny Willett
(145 pts)
T4
(80)
DNP T21
(29)
DNP T32
(6)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
WD
(-3.33)
Ross Fisher
(142.33 pts)
T25
(25)
DNP T2
(100)
DNP T32
(6)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T33
(11.33)
DNP T61
(0)
DNP
Thorbjorn Olesen
(135.33 pts)
72
(0)
T6
(60)
T28
(22)
DNP T32
(6)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T58
(0)
Win
(88)
Sergio Garcia
(125 pts)
T25
(25)
T28
(22)
DNP T2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
George Coetzee
(121 pts)
T55
(0)
T12
(38)
T10
(40)
DNP DNP DNP 4
(53.33)
DNP DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T25
(8.33)
DNP
Tommy Fleetwood
(121 pts)
T32
(18)
T24
(26)
T39
(11)
DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP
Mikko Ilonen
(118 pts)
T64
(0)
T46
(4)
T10
(40)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Emiliano Grillo
(118 pts)
T11
(39)
DNP T8
(50)
DNP T29
(7)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T42
(2.67)
DNP
Wade Ormsby
(113 pts)
T4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP T50
(0.33)
DNP DNP T41
(6)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T9
(30)
Lee Westwood
(112.33 pts)
T8
(50)
T20
(30)
DNP T13
(37)
T60
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP DNP
Thongchai Jaidee
(105 pts)
T36
(14)
T41
(9)
T28
(22)
DNP T17
(11)
DNP T9
(30)
DNP DNP T17
(22)
DNP T32
(6)
DNP
Ian Poulter
(102 pts)
2
(100)
T6
(60)
T48
(2)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Jonas Blixt
(102 pts)
T25
(25)
T14
(36)
DNP T13
(37)
DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP
Andy Sullivan
(93 pts)
T4
(80)
DNP T67
(0)
DNP T17
(11)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T47
(2)
DNP T51
(0)
DNP
Branden Grace
(92.67 pts)
T19
(31)
DNP T16
(34)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T25
(8.33)
DNP
Eddie Pepperell
(87.33 pts)
10
(40)
DNP T26
(24)
DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T58
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Justin Rose
(80 pts)
DNP T48
(2)
T4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Ernie Els
(76.67 pts)
DNP T46
(4)
T26
(24)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP DNP DNP T32
(6)
DNP
Stephen Gallacher
(76.33 pts)
T15
(35)
T24
(26)
T36
(14)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T32
(6)
DNP
Miguel A. Jimenez
(73.33 pts)
T4
(80)
71
(0)
77
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Marc Warren
(72.33 pts)
T39
(11)
T35
(15)
T43
(7)
DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T25
(8.33)
DNP
Richie Ramsay
(70 pts)
71
(0)
DNP T21
(29)
DNP T17
(11)
DNP DNP DNP DNP WD
(-3.33)
DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP
Fabrizio Zanotti
(69.67 pts)
T19
(31)
DNP T10
(40)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T47
(2)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Graeme McDowell
(64 pts)
DNP T3
(90)
T16
(34)
DNP DNP DNP T9
(30)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Pablo Larrazabal
(60.67 pts)
T52
(0)
T14
(36)
T71
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP DNP T33
(11.33)
DNP T32
(6)
DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the DP World Championship Dubai

Player Turkish Airlines WGC HSBC BMW Masters CIMB Classic Handa Wales McGladrey Classic Volvo Match Play Hong Kong Shriners Hospitals Portugal Masters Frys.com Open Dunhill Links Handa Perth
Matteo Manassero
(-10 pts)
T55
(0)
DNP 76
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Simon Dyson
(-10 pts)
T55
(0)
DNP T56
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Martin Kaymer
(-3.33 pts)
T60
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Kristoffer Broberg
(-2.33 pts)
T68
(0)
DNP T59
(0)
DNP T32
(6)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP
Matthew Baldwin
(11.33 pts)
T39
(11)
DNP T43
(7)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T58
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Oliver Fisher
(12 pts)
T60
(0)
DNP T28
(22)
DNP 40
(3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T51
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
Luke Donald
(18 pts)
T32
(18)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Louis Oosthuizen
(20 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T6
(20)
DNP
Rafael Cabrera-Bello
(22.67 pts)
T46
(4)
DNP T64
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Thomas Bjorn
(26 pts)
DNP DNP T24
(26)
DNP T58
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

This week is the end of the season for the European Tour.  Unfortunely it’s going out as a dud because Rory McIlroy has wrapped up season ending honors as the winner of the Race to Dubai.  Making this even worst, this is the end of the four event final series in which McIlroy didn’t attend the first three events.  Frankly this playoff is dead, there is no buzz over it and as we can see, players aren’t showing up because it’s meaningless.

The European Tour is having some problems come to light, and the first one is their money list.  The main problem is eight events that count on the money list, they are majors and WGC events.  So in the case of McIlroy, who has earnings of 5.4 million euro’s (about $6.9 million) in 2014 only 1.3 million euro’s were earned in full fledge European tour events.  So 75% of his earnings are in majors and WGC’s event.

So many are wondering if this is fair?  McIlroy played in 13 “European Tour events” in 2014, but seven of them were majors or WGC events.

So here is the math.  McIlroy won 1,334,902.70 euro’s while Jamie Donaldson, who is third in the Race to Dubai with 2,575,847 euro’s, could have a point on being a winner to the Race to Dubai.

Here is why.  Of the 22 events he has played, 14 of these are full European events while the eight others were majors and WGC events.  In those 14 events, Donaldson won 1,400,191 euro.  That’s about 65,000 euro’s more than McIlroy so some are saying that this is something that should be taken into account in awarding the leading money winner of the European Tour.

Facts are facts, McIlroy played better than Donaldson, with wins in two majors and a WGC event.  Still the European Tour needs to do something to make their playoffs standout, and they haven’t.  Just putting up a lot of money doesn’t mean you’re going to get players to travel halfway around the world to China for that event.  The one thing the FedEx Cup has going for it, you just can’t play in one event and expect to win it.  There is some meaning in playing all four events, McIlroy proved that by playing in all four FedEx Cup events in 2014.  So the European Tour has to do something that not forces players to attend, but give the event value enough for the player to attend, something that didn’t happen this year on the final series.

 

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the DP World Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

Of the five previous winners, three of them have been the winner of the Race to Dubai so look at the leader of the Race to Dubai as a possible winner.  Rory McIlroy has that advantage this year, he won the event and the Race to Dubai in 2012.  The other due winner was last year’s champion Henrik Stenson and in 2009 Lee Westwood won both the tournament and the Race to Dubai.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Just look at the performance chart and you can see that this event has been owned by five different players, Rory McIlroy, Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood and Henrik Stenson.  Throw in guys like Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Charl Schwartzel and Jamie Donaldson I can narrow down the 60 players in the field down to these ten.
  • Two important elements come across in the previous five winners.  First is driving distance, four of the five winners were in the top-ten while one (Alvaro Quiros in 2011) led while Rory McIlroy in 2012 was 2nd.  Hitting greens is also very important, last year’s winner Stenson led that category just like Lee Westwood in 2009.  In 2011 Alvaro Quiros was T2nd, so you have to hit the ball good and straight from tee to green
  • All of the par-5s are easy, last year Stenson played them in 10 under. The best was 12 under by Alvaro Quiros in 2011 while the worst was Robert Karlsson in 2010 when he played them in 7 under
  • Surprisingly all of the winners have played the par 4s well, Stenson was 14 under last year, Lee Westwood played them in 13 under in 2009 while the worst was Robert Karlsson at 7 under in 2010.
  • You will have no probably with the weather as each day is sunny and in the mid-80s.  There are zero chance of any rain in the next week, and there won’t be any wind, so players can attack the course.

Who to watch for at the DP World Championship Dubai

Best Bets:

Rory McIlroy

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T5 Win T11 5 3

Kid is probably a one in four shot at winning, plays great on this course. Only thing, hasn’t played competitively in a while since the Grand Slam of Golf in the first week of October so he could be a bit rusty.

Ian Poulter

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
2 T26 T22 2 T9

Coming off some great finishes of being T6th at the HSBC and runner-up last week in Turkey. So don’t be surprised to see him winning.

Henrik Stenson

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
Win T7 T24 T23

Watch him, has been sneaking back up leaderboards again as we can see with hisup leaderboards again as we can see with his 3rd place finish in Turkey.up leaderboards again as we can see with his 3rd place finish in Turkey.

Best of the rest:

Justin Rose

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T10 2 T50

We can never forget about him, he could easily get things together this week

Sergio Garcia

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T9 T11 T21 T7

Seems to be the best player until the back nine on Sunday. If he could do well in that stretch could win a lot of tournaments.a lot of tournaments.

Victor Dubuisson

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
3 T36

Another of those guys that can win, played well in this event last year and played well in Turkey.

Miguel A. Jimenez

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T8 T16 T44 T48 T9

Watch the mechanic , he is starting to play well again.

Solid contenders

Jamie Donaldson

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T8 T9 T26 T48 T23

Can win anywhere, he is part of a new breed of players winning on the European Tour.

Graeme McDowell

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T17 T52 T11 T13 T30

Has struggled on this course but you never know when he could get it together.

Luke Donald

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T5 T3 3 T9 T37

Great record at this course, just hasn’t played well of late and hasn’t been in the top-ten since4 Hilton Head seven months ago.since4 Hilton Head seven months ago.

Lee Westwood

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T5 T48 T29 T3 Win

Still not playing great, comes to a course that he has happy memories on.

Long shots that could come through:

Thorbjorn Olesen

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T17 T21 T19

Guy is playing well right now.

Thongchai Jaidee

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
T47 T7 8 T37

This guy has climbed leaderboads and won, you never know with him.

Joost Luiten

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
4 T16 T51 T26

Look for him to finish in the top-ten, can he win probably not but can make an impact.

2014 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02
First time playing in this event

Comments

  1. hi – ousthuizen played the HSBC couple of weeks ago – came 14th which is quite significant as he’s proven to like the event coming up.

  2. Maybe, I just don’t think that he has it going.
    Oosthuizen has had a terrible year and I can’t see it getting any better.
    Guess we will see.

  3. like your comments about the European tour contrast that to the Ladies LPGA tour where they have nearly everything still to play for.

  4. The LPGA has the same problem as the European Tour, the end of the season is nothing more than events on the schedule. So in some respects the race to see who is best can still be good like on the LPGA but there are years which some player has dominated the schedule and made the race not very interesting in the final weeks.
    I have never been a big supporter of the Fedex Cup playoffs, because I have never felt it was a true year round competition. But the one thing that the FedEx Cup does is make the end of the year interesting to watch because a person like Rory McIlroy could have a great year but not win the year end honors.
    There is no way of having a true World Series or Super bowl of golf at the end of the year. Just like in Auto Racing, there true Super Bowl is there first race of the year at Daytona. The same with golf, in a manner there are five different World Series, the four majors and the Players Championship. At the same time they keep you interested at the end of the year with the FedEx Cup playoffs.

    The point is the European Tour and LPGA should think of ways to have season ending events that accomplish the same thing.

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